Florida State Preview

Its finally here. Gameday vs FSU. Folks, I'm going to make no delusions here. This is an outstanding football team we're facing tonight. When you look at the numbers, you'll see why.

National Ranks in parenthesis, some, of not most of them is ugly to look at.

Total Offense vs Total Defense
CANES 437.6 ypg (42nd) vs FSU 222 ypg allowed (3rd)
FSU 530.6 ypg (12th) vs CANES 506.6 ypg allowed (117th)

Scoring Offense vs Scoring Defense
CANES 27.9 ppg (T-62nd {Rice}) vs FSU 11.6 ppg allowed (4th)
FSU 46 ppg (6th) vs CANES 32.3 ppg allowed (93rd)

Rushing Offense vs Rushing Defense
CANES 140.8 ypg (86th) vs FSU 74.9 ypg allowed (5th)
FSU 233.1 ypg (16th) vs CANES 253.7 ypg allowed (118th)

Passing Offense vs Passing Defense
CANES 296.7 ypg (24th) vs FSU 147.1 ypg allowed (6th)
FSU 297.4 ypg (23rd) vs CANES 252.9 ypg allowed (86th)

Pass Efficiency vs Pass Efficiency Defense 
CANES 127.4 (81st) vs FSU 90.9 (3rd)
FSU 173.4 (5th) vs CANES 138.1 (82nd)

TFLs Allowed vs TFLs
CANES 4.6 (T-24th {Michigan St.}) vs FSU 6.3 (T-45th {Fresno St., Ohio})
FSU 5 (T-41st {Northern Illinois, Toledo, TCU, BC, South Carolina}) vs CANES 4.9 (T-97th {Ohio St.})

Sacks Allowed vs Sacks
CANES 1.14 pg (T-22nd {Northern Illinois}) vs FSU 2.4 pg (T-34th {Arkansas, Missouri, Wisconsin})
FSU 1.57 pg (T-48th {Utah St., Vegas, Wisconsin, NW}) vs CANES 1 pg (T-107th {Arizona, Kansas, Troy})

3rd Down O vs 3rd Down D
CANES 44.4% (45th) vs FSU 23% (Leads Nation)
FSU 44.3% (46th) vs CANES 44.2% (89th)

Time of Possession
CANES 25:40 pg (117th)
FSU 29:37 pg (66th)

Turnover Margin
CANES +2 (.29 pg) (T-44th {Cal, Michigan St., South Carolina, UCLA})
FSU +1 (.14 pg) (T-55th {Northern Illinois, Rice, VT, Ole Miss})

Net Punting
CANES 34.35 avg (101st)
FSU 34.7 avg (96th)

Punt Returns vs Punt Return D
CANES 7 ypg (T-77th {Fresno St., Arizona St.}) vs FSU 6.67 ypg allowed (51st)
FSU 14.8 ypg (14th) vs CANES 18 ypg allowed (116th)

Kick Returns vs Kick Return D
CANES 24.4 (29th) vs FSU 15.9 allowed (6th)
FSU 29.6 (3rd) vs CANES 14.3 allowed (2nd)

For us to win tonight, it's going to take a near perfect game to do it. In that, I mean, no turnovers, finish drives with 7s instead of 3s. Taking advantage of short fields and making FSU have to go 80+ yards per drive. We have to stay out of 3rd and long situations, especially against a defense that leads the nation in 3rd down Defense. We have to get the crowd in the game early and often and the way you do that is with big plays. It wouldn't shock me if we try to hit a big play early if its there.

This will not be the blowout many CANE fans suspect. This is a big game from a recruiting perspective. There will a lot of recruits at this game tonight. If this is a replay of the 2010 game in which we got blown out 45-17 by the Noles, recruiting in South Florida would be set back 2-3 years if not more, that's how devastating it would be if a replay of 2010 happens tonight. Matthew Thomas from Booker T would be gone to FSU for sure. Denver Kirkland would be gone to FSU as well.

In fact, here is a list of players that will be at the game tonight:
CANES Commits in Bold
2013:
ATH Ray Lewis, 5-10, 190, Lake Mary Prep (Fla.),–Commit/Official Visit
LB Jermaine Grace, 6-1, 205, Miramar (Fla.)
OL Denver Kirkland, 6-5, 335, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.
LB, Matthew Thomas, 6-3, 205, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.
TE Jeremy Kerr, 6-6, 255, St. Petersburg (Fla.)–Commit

2014:
WR Ermon Lane, 6-2, 172, Homestead (Fla.)
LB Richard Yeargin III, 6-3, 210, Hollywood (Fla) Chaminade-Madonna
RB Sony Michel, 5-11, 195, Plantation (Fla.) American Heritage
K Christian Pereira, 6-2, 185, Orlando (Fla.) Timber Creek
DE Chad Thomas, 6-4. 225, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.
ATH Travis Rudolph, 6-0, 175, West Palm Beach (Fla.) Cardinal Newman–Commit
CB Nigel Patten, 5-9, 165, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.

2015:
ATH Jordan Cronkrite, 5-11, 185, Miami (Fla.) Westminster
ATH Tim Irvin, 5-9, 182, Miami (Fla.) Westminster
RB Jacques Patrick, 6-2, 215, Orlando (Fla.) Timber Creek

That's why the importance of keeping it close tonight is vital. Look at the talent here, we can ill afford to get blown out tonight at home to FSU for the 2nd time in 3 years because most of that talent would bolt to FSU or UF. 

Realistically though, I see this game being like 1998 in the Orange Bowl (RIP). FSU gets a nice sized lead, only to have us come back and make a game of it. However, I think FSU will make more key plays than we do and they come out with the victory.

My prediction: FSU 31 CANES 20.

Report Card vs North Carolina

Highlights: Miami vs. North Carolina

Looking at yesterday's game, once again, the D gives up almost 500 yards to Carolina (177 to Gio Bernard alone on 27 carries, with 1 TD). The 3rd down conversion rates were the same for both teams (6-15). The reason we lost this one yesterday was because we lost the turnover battle (-1). You rarely win games when you lose the turnover battle. We wasted a near 100 yard rushing game out of MJ. We did win the field position battle (Average drive starts: Carolina from their own 21, us from our own 22).

This was one of those games where you have a chance to win, but don't make the plays needed late to win.

That said, time for the Report Card.

Offense: C:  Offense did so-so. First possession, the penalty on Malcolm on 4th and 1, was a momentum killer because it pushed us back 5 yards and we ultimately had to punt. Two picks in the 1st half, the first one near the red zone on our next possession, was another killer right there because that's points we left on the field (7, and that ultimately would come back to bite us late). We turned the ball over on downs on the next possession on 4th and 3 when Hurns couldn't make a play. Later the 2nd Morris pick was at the 7 of Carolina. We allow a sack on the final drive that was a back-breaker for us. There were some bright spots, but we have to get rid of the dropsie disease because once again yesterday, it reared its ugly head in key moments.

Defense: D-: Once again, the D allows almost 500 yards of total offense to Carolina (486 to be exact), and we had little to no answer for Bernard, who went for 177 on 27 carries and 1 TD. We gave Renner almost all day to throw. Though EJ did get the pick early in the game (and had 4 tackles, 2 TFLs) we made Renner look too comfortable in the pocket. We did break up 5 passes yesterday. Denzel had an 11 tackle game (3 TFLs). Carolina was 6-15 (40%) on 3rd down and of those, 3 of those conversions were from 5 yards or less, but what was really disheartening there was the fact that twice, we allowed them to convert on plays more than 6 yards and in big spots too. We killed ourselves here with bad penalties. The PF on Brandon after the run by Romar of Carolina on their 2nd possession. We have another penalty where we have 12 on the field. However, the missed by Barth bailed them out there. On their 2nd possession of the 3rd quarter, the D makes a stop, only to have a PI call on Brandon keep their drive alive, but once again, the D rose up to make a key play and get off the field. Overall here, still needs work to get better. There was some, but not by much from last week.

Special Teams: C: I could tell that this staff had little to no confidence in Jake making kicks in pressure spots, hence, that's why we went for it a lot on 4th downs. Another solid game out of Dalton Botts. 2 of his 3 punts were downed, one of which inside the 1. We did win the field position battle (Carolina started from their own 21, CANES from their own 22). There's still some work to do here. Jake needs to get his confidence back before Saturday Night vs FSU.

In closing, overall, this is one of those games where you have a chance to win late, but we don't make the plays needed to be made in key situations. Tip your cap to Carolina, they made the plays they needed to make and we didn't. That's all there is to it. We know the challenge ahead of us on Saturday Night vs FSU in Primetime on ABC. Gotta get back up and play an outstanding Seminole team.