2015 Miami Hurricanes Opponent Preview - Week 5 (at Cincinnati 10/1)

Miami Hurricanes 2015 Opponent Preview

Week 5 (Week 4 was a BYE)

At Cincinnati (October 1^st {Thursday Night})

The 2015 Miami Hurricanes Opponent Preview continues with the preview of the Cincinnati Bearcats whom The U visits up at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati on October 1^st (Thursday Night) at 7:30 pm on ESPN.

About Cincinnati. They went 9-4 (in the AAC),  and Tommy Tuberville comes into season 3 in the Queen City as the odds-on favorite to win their conference title (AAC). Their Offense is loaded with talented playmakers, which is led by Gunner Kiel. The big question will be how their Defense does.

First, let’s talk about the known, which is their offense.  

As mentioned, they get Kiel back. In last year’s opener, he threw six touchdown passes in his collegiate debut. He was at one time, a No. 1 quarterback recruit, who started his career at Notre Dame, before coming to Cincinnati. finished 2014 with 31 TD passes to tie their record for one season and he has back his top seven receivers. If there’s a question with the O, it has to be on the durability end. Kiel, now a junior, made all 13 starts last season, however, he did leave some games due to the fact that he was banged up with rib and/or back injuries.. Their training staff up there has worked with Kiel to improve his core strength.

There could be a record breaking season for  WR Shaq Washington (66 catches, four TDs). He’s on pace to become the UC career leader in receptions, and for a possession receiver like he is, that’s impressive. Also back are Mekale McKay and Chris Moore (both of whom had eight TD catches apiece). Those two are the big play threats downfield in their four-wide offense.

While their passing game was Top 15 nationally (13^th), the running game left a little to be desired here. In 2014, their running game was 72^nd nationally. You can guess what the focus was on this spring up there offensively. The reason for the low ranking in the running game, was the fact that their top backs Hosey Williams and Tion Green missed most of 2014 with injuries. Their leading rusher was Mike Boone, who had 650 yards rushing and nine TDs as a true freshman. Come fall camp, this will be one battle worth watching between Boone and Williams to see who wins that job as No 1 back.

As for the Offensive Line, they lost to graduation 3x all-league left tackle Eric Lefeld, who signed with the Atlanta Falcons as an Undrafted Free Agent. However, they do have three starters back in Parker Ehinger (who will move over to Lefeld’s old spot at LT from RG), RT Justin Murray and C Deyshawn Bond.

Onto the Defensive side

Keep in mind that when The U thrashed the Bearcats 55–34 last year at Sun Life, their D was the worst in the country. This led Tubs to say the following:  “We can’t tackle anybody on defense. We look like the Bad News Bears.” The kicker was that just two weeks earlier, they had allowed 710 yards in a 50–28 loss to Ohio State. Suffice to say, the schedule was brutal early, but got easier once AAC play started and their D was better as the season went on and they would rank 96^th  in total defense when the season ended. You could tell that UC’s relative lack of defensive speed got exposed by the big boys.

They lose key personnel to graduation. That includes  LBs Jeff Luc (134 tackles, who was picked up as a UFA by the Miami Dolphins) and Nick Temple (113, who was picked up as a UFA by the Cincinnati Bengals) and defensive end Terrell Hartsfield (AAC-best 9.0 sacks, who was picked up by the Colts as an UFA). They do get back DE Silverberry Mouhon on the D-Line.

Also back is a ball-hawk in Safety Zach Edwards (121 tackles), and their back 4 will get a boost with the return of veteran cornerback Adrian Witty. A vocal team leader, Witty missed most of 2014 with a leg injury, so getting him back will be boost for the Bearcat secondary.

The consistency on D is shaky here, when you consider the fact that the Bearcats will have its third DC, in Tubs’ three years in the Queen City. Steve Clinkscale, is the new DC, promoted from secondary/cornerbacks coach. The man that led the D last year, Hank Hughes, left for Lincoln, to become defensive line coach at Nebraska.

As for their special teams

Like the Defense, they will have their third ST coordinator. Ty Linder comes in from TCU. They have back Placekicker Andrew Gantz, who had a solid Freshman season, which saw him earn second-team All-AAC honors after making 16-of-20 field goal attempts. Also back is Punter Sam Geraci, and as the season went on, he got better. He finished his Freshman year with a 39.4-yard average. While the kicking game was solid, the same could not be said for their coverage teams, at least early, As the season went on, they got better. In 2013, their coverage was terrible. When it came to the return game, nothing of note could be said here.

What to expect from Cincinnati

Looking at them on tape, they are explosive Offensively, and ball-hawks on the defensive end.  They will hit big plays, and Kiel, if he stays healthy, is the real deal, and their WRs are very good and they do stretch the field effectively. They run a lot of 4 wide sets. If their D steps up early to replace the losses they suffered there, and adjust to another new DC, look out.

Coming off a BYE week, on a Thursday Night on the road and with FSU 9 days later in the ACC opener on the road, this is a potential trap game for The U.  It won’t be like last year at Sun Life, where they just dismantled the Bearcats. It’ll be closer, but in the end, I believe that the CANES will make just enough plays and make some key stops late to win this one. I predict CANES win by 10-14 points on the road in Cincinnati. 

Up Next: at FSU (10/10)

Report Card and Game Balls vs Cincinnati

Folks, I apologize for being late with this. No podcast on this post-game. However, I do want to give my thoughts on the win vs Cincinnati.

Offensively, we moved the ball very well in this game. We got over 600 yards of total offense (621 to be exact). We had 335 yards rushing (275 by Duke and Joe). However, there were plenty of mental mistakes in this game. Of our 13 penalties in this game, 5 were on the offense (holding, PF, False starts). We did lose a fumble there, but Brad had a good game, though he was sacked twice. The 2nd and 3rd teamers did so-so. I didn't like when they came in, we got a little bit sloppy. Need to finish stronger there. Overall, the O was good, but I need to see better 3rd down conversions by the O going forward. Grade: B-

Defensively, we sacked the QBs 3 times, we forced three picks (one a Pick 6 from Tyriq). Of the 13 penalties in this game, 4 were on the Defense (all the 15 yard ones to boot for 60 yards of free yardage). That didn't cost here, but against a good team, that's asking for big trouble down the road. Definitely need to clean that up going forward. We did allow 422 yards in this game here, (355 in the air), but the Rush defense held the Bearcats to 67 yards rushing. However, I again didn't like the fact that our D couldn't get off the field on 3rd down. Cincinnati was 8-20 on 3rd down conversions (40%), need to fix that and we have to do a better job of stopping opponents on 3rd downs. Grade: C

Special Teams, of the 13 penalties in this game, 4 were on Special Teams, and mostly those were mental mistakes. Justin had another good game in the Punting department, though he did have a Touchback in this game, but for the most part, great job pinning the Bearcats back. The average starting field position for Cincy in this game was their own 21, while we started drives on average from our own 33. Stacy had another good game in the KR department (5 returns for 121 yards). Solid game from Bads in the FG department hitting 2 FGs here. Felt we did well here with the ST Defense, we need to cut those dumb penalties out here, but for the most part, this unit did well. Grade: B

Now to Game Balls. Normally, I would give out a few game balls for the week's effort, however, in this case, I'm giving out only one game ball and that to Carter Hucks, the 8 year old kid battling a rare form of cancer called Fanconi anemia. Its a rare disorder that leads to cancer and bone marrow failure in most patients, and for us to make his wish come true, it puts many things into the proper perspective. (to read more on Hucks' story, read Christina DeNicola's piece, and after you read her piece, you'll see why). 

In conclusion, we won a game that we were supposed to win. However, there were still mistakes on the mental end that still need to get fixed during the BYE week before going to Blacksburg next Thursday Night. We're going to a place where we haven't done well recently. We need to have a big game in all three phases and what better time than next Thursday Night in Blacksburg. See you on Thursday, and GO CANES! Go Carter Hucks and BEAT THIS DISEASE!!! 

Preview of game vs Cincinnati 10/11/14

My preview of Cincinnati game.

Part 7 of the 12 part 2014 Miami Hurricane Opponent Video Series - Cincinnati 10/11

2014 Cincinnati Football Preview

In Part 7 of the 2014 12 part opponent video series, I’m going to talk a little about the Cincinnati Bearcats, our opponent on Oct 11^th at Sun Life Stadium. 

Lets first look at their Talent:

This might a team that has a real special season, provided that Gunner Kiel is consistent and accurate and their Defense stays consistent all year with a new DC in charge. Kiel was on the scout team. If he’s the player that was the five-star out of Indiana, then this offense is going to one teams would not want to face. The backup will be JC transfer Jarred Evans. The old starter Munchie Legaux is back for his 5^th year after suffering a severe knee injury last September. Their running game is strong again as their top three rushers return in Hosey Williams, Ralph David Abernathy and Tion Green. Their ok at the WR position with Seniors Shaq Washington and Chris Moore returning. Washington is an excellent possession receiver who had 78 catches last year. Their O-Line gets three of their starters back in 2014, which includes tackle Eric Lefeld (6-6 309).

Defensively, they are outstanding. In spite of being 9^th nationally in Total D, they still canned Art Kaufman and replaced him with Hank Hughes. Hughes will continue to run the 4-3 defense that was implemented last year. When you look at their D, the core is at the LB position. They get back both Nick Temple and Jeff Luc. Temple had 80 tackles in 2013, Luc finished with 43. On their D-Line, they have back Silverberry Mouhon, who finished with 9 ½ sacks. In the secondary, they have back Safety Zach Edwards, who ended the season with 73 tackles and CB Howard Wilder, who had 35 tackles. If the LB position needed any more depth, they added former Northwestern transfer Eric Wilson which will allow Luc to move to the Middle LB position.

Next, I want to talk about the Coaching:

Wherever Tommy Tuberville has been, he’s won (Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas Tech, and now Cincinnati). This will be year 2 in the Queen City for Tubs, and gets the most out of what he has and develops that talent. We’ll see how he does in Year 2. 

 

Now, to their 2014 Schedule:

Cincinnati went 9-4 last season and finished third in the AAC, so let’s break down their 2014 schedule and how it projects to play out:

In their opener, 9/12 – vs. Toledo (WIN)

Their opener is on a Friday Night this year. Toledo will have two games under their belt, which will make this game close for a half, but in the 2^nd half, the Bearcats get it together, work out the kinks, and win this one going away.

In Week 2, 9/20 – vs. Miami-of-Ohio (WIN)

The Redhawks have a new coach in Chuck Martin who comes over from Notre Dame. When people say “Turn things around”, it’ll mean different things to people. In Miami (OH)’s case, it means to have a fighting chance in MAC contests, , they won’t get the Victory Bell, not this year. Cincinnati wins big here.

In week 3, 9/27 – at Ohio State (LOSS)

If Cincinnati is going to have that magical season, this is one of the two games that will determine that. This will be a tough game, in the end, the Buckeyes are at home, and this is a game they don’t lose. Ohio State gets the nod here to drop the Bearcats to a projected 2-1.

In week 4, 10/4 – vs. Memphis (WIN)

Memphis is a team on the rise, and they will be better, they might get caught looking ahead to the game at Miami the following week. Its on a Wednesday Night and Cincy is coming off a projected tough loss vs Ohio State, and they’ll want to get back on the winning track. Cincy the win here in a game that’s closer than people think.

In week 5, 10/11 – at Miami-Fla. (LOSS)

This is Tubs return to Miami for the first time since 1993, when he was the DC here. Understand this: These guys have the weapons to possibly beat the CANES. Given the fact that Miami after this game will have 13 days off before they go to Blacksburg on a Thursday Night, this is the classic trap game. Our secondary had a difficult time against “pro-style” offenses last season (hello, Teddy Bridgewater in Orlando) and we will have been battle tested at this point with projected wins over Louisville, Nebraska and the Duke (the Former two on the road), this will give the Miami D a lot of confidence going into this game. The Hurricanes will still be without their expected starter in Ryan Williams and will likely start a talented, yet inexperienced true freshman (Brad Kaaya) and possibly Jake Heaps (Transfer) under center. The Bearcats will be up for this game, but I think the CANES will match that intensity and find a way to win the one and spoil Tubs’ return to Miami. CANES win this one to drop the Bearcats to 3-2 in this projection.

In Week 6 10/18 – at SMU (Win)

Traveling from Cincinnati to Miami to Cincinnati to Dallas all within a seven-day time period doesn’t sound favorable, and the Bearcats could be set up for a major letdown following a very tough loss to the CANES. That will not happen, Tubs will have them ready to play and they should blast SMU in this one. Cincy bounces back nicely here. 

In Week 7, 10/24 – vs. South Florida (WIN)
After the win vs SMU, the Bearcats are back home to take on the USF Bulls. The Bearcats have too many weapons for USF to overcome here and the Bulls are another 2 years away from really being a force.  Cincinnati wins here handily at home.

In Week 8, 10/31 – at Tulane (WIN)

Yes, its Halloween night, and it can get very crazy in New Orleans that day. While the Green Wave will hang for a little while, in the end, the Bearcats just have too many weapons for the Tulane to overcome here. Cincy gets the win in the Bayou.

In Week 9, they have a BYE

In Week 10 11/13 – vs. East Carolina (Win)

In a game that will likely decide the AAC title, the ECU Pirates come into Nippert for a Thursday Night game. Cincinnati is 2-2 in Thursday night regular season games since 2010, and Tuberville teams are 2-5 in games following a bye week over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati will have been battle-tested with the early games at Ohio State and at Miami, however, that doesn’t mean they can adjust accordingly. While Shane Carden and company should score at will vs a young UC secondary, I think in the end, Cincinnati makes just enough plays at home to win this one in a high scoring affair.

In Week 11, 11/22 – at Connecticut (WIN)

While this will be a physical game, offensively, UConn doesn’t have the firepower to hang with the Bearcats for 4 quarters. Give the nod to Cincinnati here.
In Week 12, 11/29 – at Temple (WIN)

This is a possible trap game. The AAC title should be clinched in this one by the Bearcats. Yes, Temple will be improved, but not enough to hang with Cincinnati for 4 quarters.

In Week 13, 12/6 – vs. Houston (WIN)

Houston was successful in 2013 for its ability to force turnovers, leading the nation with 43 total turnovers gained (25 interceptions, 18 fumbles). Some of those forced turnovers were the difference in tight contests, as the Cougars played seven games in which the outcome was by 10 points or less. They were also remarkably lucky with how many times the cards fell in their favor. It’s going to be extremely difficult to replicate that kind of production this season, especially with the same attacking philosophy. Cincinnati should be able to watch the film and know how to prepare for this one, winning its season finale and heading into the postseason on a three-game winning streak.

My prediction on the Game vs. CANES:

We’ve beaten the Jackets 5 straight times, and I see nothing different after this one. Look for Duke to have a monster game on the ground, and the D shutting down the Triple Option of theirs. This is a game we win and win easily in Atlanta.
 
In Part 8 of the 2014 series, I will talk about the Virginia Tech Hokies, our opponent on October 23^rd (Thursday Night) up in Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, VA.