Florida State Preview

Its finally here. Gameday vs FSU. Folks, I'm going to make no delusions here. This is an outstanding football team we're facing tonight. When you look at the numbers, you'll see why.

National Ranks in parenthesis, some, of not most of them is ugly to look at.

Total Offense vs Total Defense
CANES 437.6 ypg (42nd) vs FSU 222 ypg allowed (3rd)
FSU 530.6 ypg (12th) vs CANES 506.6 ypg allowed (117th)

Scoring Offense vs Scoring Defense
CANES 27.9 ppg (T-62nd {Rice}) vs FSU 11.6 ppg allowed (4th)
FSU 46 ppg (6th) vs CANES 32.3 ppg allowed (93rd)

Rushing Offense vs Rushing Defense
CANES 140.8 ypg (86th) vs FSU 74.9 ypg allowed (5th)
FSU 233.1 ypg (16th) vs CANES 253.7 ypg allowed (118th)

Passing Offense vs Passing Defense
CANES 296.7 ypg (24th) vs FSU 147.1 ypg allowed (6th)
FSU 297.4 ypg (23rd) vs CANES 252.9 ypg allowed (86th)

Pass Efficiency vs Pass Efficiency Defense 
CANES 127.4 (81st) vs FSU 90.9 (3rd)
FSU 173.4 (5th) vs CANES 138.1 (82nd)

TFLs Allowed vs TFLs
CANES 4.6 (T-24th {Michigan St.}) vs FSU 6.3 (T-45th {Fresno St., Ohio})
FSU 5 (T-41st {Northern Illinois, Toledo, TCU, BC, South Carolina}) vs CANES 4.9 (T-97th {Ohio St.})

Sacks Allowed vs Sacks
CANES 1.14 pg (T-22nd {Northern Illinois}) vs FSU 2.4 pg (T-34th {Arkansas, Missouri, Wisconsin})
FSU 1.57 pg (T-48th {Utah St., Vegas, Wisconsin, NW}) vs CANES 1 pg (T-107th {Arizona, Kansas, Troy})

3rd Down O vs 3rd Down D
CANES 44.4% (45th) vs FSU 23% (Leads Nation)
FSU 44.3% (46th) vs CANES 44.2% (89th)

Time of Possession
CANES 25:40 pg (117th)
FSU 29:37 pg (66th)

Turnover Margin
CANES +2 (.29 pg) (T-44th {Cal, Michigan St., South Carolina, UCLA})
FSU +1 (.14 pg) (T-55th {Northern Illinois, Rice, VT, Ole Miss})

Net Punting
CANES 34.35 avg (101st)
FSU 34.7 avg (96th)

Punt Returns vs Punt Return D
CANES 7 ypg (T-77th {Fresno St., Arizona St.}) vs FSU 6.67 ypg allowed (51st)
FSU 14.8 ypg (14th) vs CANES 18 ypg allowed (116th)

Kick Returns vs Kick Return D
CANES 24.4 (29th) vs FSU 15.9 allowed (6th)
FSU 29.6 (3rd) vs CANES 14.3 allowed (2nd)

For us to win tonight, it's going to take a near perfect game to do it. In that, I mean, no turnovers, finish drives with 7s instead of 3s. Taking advantage of short fields and making FSU have to go 80+ yards per drive. We have to stay out of 3rd and long situations, especially against a defense that leads the nation in 3rd down Defense. We have to get the crowd in the game early and often and the way you do that is with big plays. It wouldn't shock me if we try to hit a big play early if its there.

This will not be the blowout many CANE fans suspect. This is a big game from a recruiting perspective. There will a lot of recruits at this game tonight. If this is a replay of the 2010 game in which we got blown out 45-17 by the Noles, recruiting in South Florida would be set back 2-3 years if not more, that's how devastating it would be if a replay of 2010 happens tonight. Matthew Thomas from Booker T would be gone to FSU for sure. Denver Kirkland would be gone to FSU as well.

In fact, here is a list of players that will be at the game tonight:
CANES Commits in Bold
2013:
ATH Ray Lewis, 5-10, 190, Lake Mary Prep (Fla.),–Commit/Official Visit
LB Jermaine Grace, 6-1, 205, Miramar (Fla.)
OL Denver Kirkland, 6-5, 335, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.
LB, Matthew Thomas, 6-3, 205, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.
TE Jeremy Kerr, 6-6, 255, St. Petersburg (Fla.)–Commit

2014:
WR Ermon Lane, 6-2, 172, Homestead (Fla.)
LB Richard Yeargin III, 6-3, 210, Hollywood (Fla) Chaminade-Madonna
RB Sony Michel, 5-11, 195, Plantation (Fla.) American Heritage
K Christian Pereira, 6-2, 185, Orlando (Fla.) Timber Creek
DE Chad Thomas, 6-4. 225, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.
ATH Travis Rudolph, 6-0, 175, West Palm Beach (Fla.) Cardinal Newman–Commit
CB Nigel Patten, 5-9, 165, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.

2015:
ATH Jordan Cronkrite, 5-11, 185, Miami (Fla.) Westminster
ATH Tim Irvin, 5-9, 182, Miami (Fla.) Westminster
RB Jacques Patrick, 6-2, 215, Orlando (Fla.) Timber Creek

That's why the importance of keeping it close tonight is vital. Look at the talent here, we can ill afford to get blown out tonight at home to FSU for the 2nd time in 3 years because most of that talent would bolt to FSU or UF. 

Realistically though, I see this game being like 1998 in the Orange Bowl (RIP). FSU gets a nice sized lead, only to have us come back and make a game of it. However, I think FSU will make more key plays than we do and they come out with the victory.

My prediction: FSU 31 CANES 20.

Part 8 of 12 part CANE 2012 opponent series

In Part 8 of the 12 part 2012 CANE opponent series, we're going to preview a team that can make a lot of noise this year, and that's the Florida State Seminoles.

Jimbo Fisher is back for his 3rd season in Tallahassee, and some think this might be the year they put everything together and possibly win the whole thing. They were 9-4 in 2011, winning the Champs Sports Bowl over Notre Dame 18-14.

As is usually the case in Tallahassee, the expectations to win a BCS title are still very high for the Noles. They open #7 in the pre-season coaches poll. We'll see if this year, they can finally live up to those expectations.

Let's start with the Offense: In 2011, then RS Junior E.J. Manuel (6'5" 240) took over for Christian Ponder, who was drafted 12 overall by the Minnesota Vikings in the 2011 NFL Draft. Their fans really thought Manuel was going to be a QB on the level of Charlie Ward and Chris Weinke. Both those QBs won not only the Heisman Trophy, but a National title as well (Ward in 1993, and Weinke in 1999).

Those are impossible shoes to fill and the high expectations got to Manuel as he suffered a shoulder injury in the OU game and would miss a few games. When October rolled around, their offense turned out to be one of the better ones in the country, however, when Manuel aggravated that shoulder injury, it was over for the Noles and their offense suffered. In the four games from October 15th to November 3rd, They averaged 38.5 points a game and they won each game by at least 25 points. (Now lets consider who their opposition was, which is the murderer's row of: Duke, Maryland, NC State, and Boston College).  They would lose Manuel to that shoulder injury against us and their O didn't go North of 23 points the rest of the way. However, they won games last year because of their D. 

He did end up completing almost 2/3 of his passes (65.5%) for 2,666 yards and 18 TDs to 8 picks. He scored using his legs as well, adding 4 rushing TDs, but, this is a number that stands out, he was sacked 33 times. If the Noles want to compete for a BCS title, that sack number must come down. If Manuel struggles or gets hurt again and is out for an extended period, they will be in major trouble. Yes, RS Sophomore Clint Trickett (6'3" 180) will come in and he did throw for 675 yards and 7 TDs to 4 picks in 2011. He did start against Clemson, and threw for 336 yards, 3 TDs to just 1 pick in a 35-30 loss. However, Trickett doesn't hurt you with his legs the way Manuel does.

Their OC James Coley has gone with the spread offense in the past, however, in 2012, you're going to see more of the pro style offense, like we saw in the days of Bobby Bowden.

Last season, their receivers had at least 26 catches but no more than 38. They get four of those five back in 2012, except for Bert Reed (undrafted FA who's with the Cleveland Browns). Rashad Greene (6' 170) had 38 receptions for 596 yards, and 7 TDs in just 8 games. He missed four games with an Achilles’ injury. In the spring, he suffered a concussion, but he will be a go for their opener on 9/1 vs Murray State. Also back is Senior Rodney Smith (6'6" 219). He had 36 receptions for 561 yards, and 4 TDs in 2011. Junior Kenny Shaw (6' 170) had 34 receptions for 418 yards and 4 TDs last season.  RS Sophomore Christian Green (6'2" 205) also returns in the Receiving core. In 2011, he had 26 receptions for 450 yards, however, he didn't score a TD. RS Junior Willie Haulstead (6'2" 230) comes back after missing all of last year with a concussion. In 2010, this guy had 38 receptions for 587 yards, and 6 TDs. TE Nick O’Leary (6'3" 238) is also a dangerous weapon and now have added Penn State transfer Kevin Haplea (6'4" 252) and it just give Jimbo another big target to utilize in his offense and he's a blocking machine, especially in the running game.

That should benefit guys like Sophomore Davonta Freeman (5'9" 209) who led their team in rushing with 120 rushes for 579 yards and 8 TDs. However, he suffered a back injury which forced him to miss spring practice. Senior Chris Thompson (5'8" 187) who went for 846 yards in 2010, however, because of a back injury, was limited to just 29 carries in 2011. When healthy, those two guys will be very tough to stop. However, expect to see Sophomore James Wilder, Jr. (6'2" 226) and freshman Mario Pender (6' 190) to get some work in the backfield in 2012. Depth here isn't an issue because they are very deep here.

The offensive line in 2011, took a beating because of injuries and that's why Manuel was sacked as often as he was. Think about this, 10 players started at least one game for them on the O-Line, including 3 true freshman. On the bright side, the more playing time they get, the more experience they'll have in the long term. If their line returns to the form of 2010, their O will be a lot better in every aspect.

On the other side of the ball, defensively, when you look at the Noles, their D was #6 in the nation under DC (and former CANE secondary coach) Mark Stoops, who's the younger brother of OU coach Bob Stoops. When it came to stopping the run, they were #9 nationally in that category, and vs the pass, they were #12. The down side was that they were #88 in Red Zone D and in the 4th quarter, when the games were on the line, they were #55. Early in the season, that wasn't an issue, however, later in the year, this stat would carry more weight.

This is going to be a force to deal with again in 2012. All their D-Linemen are back and they have tons of depth here and guys who will be playing on Sundays in 2013.  Just to show how deep the D is, two of their players moved to the other side of the ball just to get in games. Their DEs are led by Senior Brandon Jenkins (6'3" 260), Junior Bjoern Werner (6'4" 255), and Senior Cornelius Carradine (6'5" 255). These three ends combined to have  31 TFLs and 20.5 sacks in 2011. On the interior of their line, they're loaded here as well, and they have one of the best units in the nation, who are led by The tackles are also some of the best in the country led by Sophomore Timmy Jernigan (6'2" 298), 5th year Seniors Everett Dawkins (6'3" 304), and Anthony McCloud (6'2" 322).

At LB, Nigel Bradham is now in the NFL with the Buffalo Bills, drafted in the 4th round, and Jeff Luc who transferred. However, this is still a very good group coming back. Returning are 5th year Senior Vince Williams (6'1" 250), Senior Nick Moody (6'2" 237), Juniors Christian Jones (6'4" 232), and Telvin Smith (6'3" 237). They're not going to have as much depth as they've had in the past, but this is still, again, a unit that is very dangerous.

In the secondary, there will be a some dropoff from an experience perspective, however, this is still a force to be reckoned with. CB Mike Harris (6th round pick by Jacksonville) and strong safety Terrance Parks (undrafted FA to Kansas City) are gone. However, Junior safeties Lamarcus Joyner (5'8" 195) and Terrance Brooks (5'11" 197) are back and to complement them is RS Junior CB Xavier Rhodes (6'2" 217). They will miss Greg Reid, who was kicked off the team because of arrests for drugs (marajuana possession) and driving with a suspended license in Georgia back in July (Trial for those charges will be in September). Bottom line is that Reid was being a knucklehead and he got what he deserved here. They are deep here, but very young.

Now to Special Teams: They'll have Senior Dustin Hopkins back. In 2011, he was 22-27 on field goals last year including a 53 yarder. This is one of the better kickers in America and a Groza candidate. Oh, and he's pretty good on kickoffs too. They lose All-ACC punter Shawn Powell to graduation (undrafted FA who signed with the Buffalo Bills). Now it'll be up to true freshman Cason Beatty to fill those shoes left by Powell. How big were the shoes, in 2011, Powell averaged 47 yards a punt. That's a big weapon they lost from a field position perspective.

Let's start with punt returns, Greene will have some monster shoes to fill. You don't replace a stud like Reid that easily. This guy, had he stayed, had a chance to break Deion's school record for punt return yardage. That's how big a weapon Reid was. His loss is going to be huge from a field position perspective. As for Kickoffs, they will be led by Sophomore Karlos Williams (6'1" 230) and Joyner. Joyner averaged 30 yards per kick return in 2011.

Looking at their Schedule: Their first 4 games are all in Tallahassee and all winnable, especially the first three (Murray St, Savannah St [who replaces WVU on the schedule], Wake). Their first big test will be on 9/22 when Clemson pays a visit to Doak. Then five of final eight are on the road, but leave the state of Florida just three times in that stretch. They go down to Raymond James Stadium to take on USF, which beat the Noles the last time they met in 2009 (Bowden's final season in Tallahassee). Then they go to Raleigh to take on NC State before coming back to Tallahaseee to host BC. After that, its the big one vs The U, before going back to Doak to face Duke. After the BYE week, they go up to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech on a Thursday Night and in College Park nine days later to take on Maryland before ending the regular season at home against hated rival Florida.

My prediction: If their line can stay healthy all year, their O is going to be very dangerous. You don't replace Reid that easily and they will suffer a bit because of it. However, that D of theirs has more than enough depth to overcome his absence. With a favorable schedule, remember, they have to go to USF, CANES, and VT, and a home game against Clemson on 9/22. There's no reason why they won't win 10 this year. I see them going 10-2, winning the Atlantic and facing Miami in a rematch for the ACC title in Charlotte on December 1st.

In part 9 of the series, I'll preview the 2012 Virginia Tech Hokies.