2015 Miami Hurricanes Opponent Preview - Week 9 (at Duke 10/31)

Miami Hurricanes 2015 Opponent Preview

Week 9

At Duke (October 31^st)

The 2015 Miami Hurricanes Opponent Preview continues with the preview of the Duke Blue Devils, who The U pays a visit to on Halloween.

When you look at the job David Cutcliffe has done there. He changed everything about that program, turning a perennial loser into a consistent winner. Before he got there, they had never won 10 games in a season. They won 10 in 2013, and 9 last year. What that man has done in Durham can be nothing short of remarkable.  If Cut is to get his team back to a bowl game in 2015, he will have to do with a younger cast and some inexperienced players.

Let’s talk about Duke’s Offense.

Yes, some key players are gone, like QB Anthony Boone (signed as an UFA by the Detroit Lions), WRs Jamison Crowder (Drafted in the 4^th Round by Washington) and Isaac Blakeney. Still though, they are not without weapons here and they might be even better than they were in 2014.

It will all hinge on how well and how quick Thomas Sirk is able to carry the load at QB. Duke will be more of a running team this year than they have in Cut’s tenure, while trying to find a go-to WR to fill the void left by Crowder’s departure.  They have some talent here, but young, outside of Senior Max McCaffery.  The one WR that the coaches are very high on is redshirt freshman Chris Taylor , who showed much potential this spring.  Sirk’s other target that will be counted on to step up is Johnell Barnes, who like Taylor, showed a lot of potential over the spring.  Back at TE is Braxton Deaver, who was one of the ACC’s best Tight Ends, but was out all of 2014 with a torn ACL, and he’ll be back for a sixth year. He’s expected to be Sirk’s to-go guy over the middle and in short yardage/goal line situations.

The OL did take a hit with the loss of All-American Laken Tomlinson, who’s now in Detroit as the 28^th overall pick in the NFL Draft. However, when you listen to Cut, he believes that they will only get better there and with good reason. It’s going to be up to C Matt Skura to step into a leadership role there. With 27 career starts under his belt, and being a 1^st team pre-season all-ACC Center, Cut is counting on him to lead the OL. He’ll also have back on the Line, senior LG Lucas Patrick.

There will be many questions in Durham this year. They did lose 3 of their last 4, including a loss to Arizona State in El Paso at the Sun Bowl. They have to fill many voids on Offense this year and when you look at Sirk, he wasn’t the long ball threat that Boone was. He’s more of a safe, short passer. He’s going to need to expand his game in 2015.

RB Shaquille Powell is the top option in the backfield, and since Duke is going to be more of a run heavy team this year, he’s going to carry a lot of the load for them this year. Also back for them is Jela Duncan, who returns after missing last year due to academic matters. He was their top rusher in 2012 and 2013, so the Blue Devils are loaded with talent and depth at RB.

To put it simply, it’s not totally empty in Durham. Think about this: Of the 22 positions on offense and defense, 15 will have starters who have been on campus and part of the program for four years.

Let’s talk about Duke’s Defense

Look, they have the athletes to make plays out there. They have five DBs back and all have starting experience. They run a 4-2-5 scheme. Their best player on D is Senior S Jeremy Cash. Cash made the All-ACC team, and on top of that, this guy had 232 tackles in the past two seasons combined. That’s amazing.

Its not just Cash on the back end here, They also have back DeVon Edwards as the other safety. He’s had four INTs in the past two years. When you add to the mix junior CBs Breon Borders and Byron Fields, you have some experience on the table. Borders has had in his Duke careey 7 picks and when you add that Fields is a good coverer of both the pass and rush, you have two very capable CBs here.

At LB, they were supposed to have back Kelby Brown who was an All-ACC pick in 2013 with 114 tackles that season (11 for loss), after missing 2014 with an ACL injury, but after tearing his ACL again in July, ending his career, it’s going to hurt them here, as they only have three experienced LBs on their depth chart returning. It’s going to be up to Chris Holmes, Dwayne Norman, and Zavier Carmichael, who all played in all their games in 2014, to step op. In their careers, they’ve combined for just 52.5 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, and three sacks, and all of those were by Norman.

As for the D-Line, it doesn’t look too good here either. Yes, they have Carlos Wray back on the interior, but after that, there isn’t much there of note, although their other DT A.J. Wolf was 3^rd among D-linemen in tackles last season.  The biggest issue here for this Defense is having an effective pass rush. Wray and their DE Kyler Brown are their only returning players on the line that can say they’ve had a sack, and combined in their careers, only have 2.5.  As good as their secondary is, if there’s no solid pass rush, it won’t matter. A good passing game with a good OL, goes to town on that secondary.  

Let’s talk about Duke’s Special Teams

Their kicking game is outstanding. Some believe they have the best kicker and punter in the ACC and one of the better ones in the country. They have back Senior Ross Martin, who has only missed four kicks from 39 yards or longer and he’s hit 4 of 6 from 50-plus yards in his Duke career. When you had the return of Senior P Will Monday, who only averaged 43.5 yards per attempt and put 57 punts inside the 20 yard line in his past three seasons, you have a combo that get the job done from a field position perspective. Their return game is pretty good. They have DeVon Edwards back handling those duties. Over the last two years, he has had three TDs returning Kicks/Punts.

What to expect from Duke

Looking at them on tape, yes, they lost a lot, but don’t be fooled, this is still a force to be reckoned with in Durham.

The video you see above is from their Spring Game

In this game, it’ll be up there at Wallace-Wade Stadium. Our last visit up there wasn’t pretty at all. In fact, it was the low point of U football. This is the first of a stretch where the U will end the regular season with 5 straight vs the Coastal. If the CANES are to get to Charlotte as Coastal champs, they need to win this game. In the end, I believe the U steps up and makes some plays and leaves Durham with a victory, albeit, a hard fought one. 

My take on Last Night's win vs Duke

My report card and game balls for the game vs Duke.

Preview of Duke Game 9-27-14

My preview of Tonight's game vs Duke at Sun Life Stadium.

Part 5 of the 12 part 2014 Miami Hurricane Opponent Video Series - Duke 9/27

2014 Duke Football Preview

In Part 5 of the 2014 12 part opponent video series. I’m going to talk a little about the Duke Blue Devils, our opponent on Sept 27^th at Sun Life Stadium.

Lets first look at their Talent:

Where do you start with Duke? While they might not have the best talent in the world, they find ways to win. They mix the run and pass as good as anyone in the ACC. While they’re not on the level with a FSU or Clemson, their balance offensively is very good. At QB, Anthony Boone is back and he’ll have to be healthy this year because they lost Connette (transferred to Fresno). They do have back Sophomore Thomas Sirk. Sirk is very good athlete who, if he stays healthy, could fill a void left by Connette’s departure. Understand this, this is Boone's offense, if not the entire team, meaning Cut and his new OC, Scottie Montgomery, are going to have to try and keep Boone’s mindset on the here and now. He needs to cut down on the picks which were high last year. 

In the WR core, they have this guy named Jamison Crowder. All he did last year was have 108 receptions for 1,360 yards. He’s just the latest in a long line of Cut offenses to shatter records. He’s also the next Duke receiver to be an All-American candidate. Even though Brandon Braxton is gone, when you factor is Crowder's return, along with a healthy influx of underclassmen talent, you have a WR corp that one of the better ones in the ACC. At TE, they have back a 2^nd team All-ACC in Braxton Deaver (46 for 600). He will be out early in Fall Camp, but he will be one to be dealt with in Cut’s offense. With Braxton graduated, his role in the slot, will be filled by Junior Max McCaffrey (26 for 298), who's steady, and he’ll push Senior Isaac Blakeney (19 for 244) to the outside, where his size could be a useful tool. When you add a 2^nd tier of receivers like Sophomores Johnell Barnes and Ryan Smith, as well as true freshman Trevon Lee, and you can really do some damage stretching the field, which would be huge for Boone's production. This group is very solid and dangerous.

Where they’ll take the biggest hit here is on the O-Line, where they lose two of the most experienced, battle-tested and awarded linemen in the history of their program in RT Perry Simmons and LG Dave Harding. However, they do have three starters coming back in Takoby Cofield at LT, Laken Tomlinson at RG and C Matt Skura. Their OL will be fine. Even with Harding gone, they have back Junior Lucas Patrick, who can step up and produce. The only weakness would be at RT where, you have a battle between Sophomores Tanner Stone and Casey Blaser, and throw in RS Freshman Sterling Korona, and that could be a cause for concern.  That competition will draw eyeballs; however, the most important player on their line is Cofield on the blind side. While Tomlinson is a clear-cut All-ACC pick, the key to their success is the blind side protection being very strong and consistent.

Defensively, they did lose some big names like Kenny Anunike, Sydney Sarmiento, and Justin Foxx, However, they are still loaded with seniors and experienced juniors along the defensive line. The starting lineup here won’t be determined for a few weeks, expect to have five seniors in their two-deep, including three of their four DEs. Look for Seniors Dezmond Johnson and Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo to be starting in 2014, with the latter seemingly set for a very productive year as the full-time starter. Ones to watch, I suspect are Senior Jonathan Jones and Junior Kyler Brown, who moves to the DL from LB, and could be one to deal with in certain situations. Even though Sarmiento is gone, they will be better stopping the run: You have Jamal Bruce producing at the point of attack, Carlos Wray is one that could wreak havoc, and A.J. Wolf has played some key snaps in reserve. They have an impressive young core of linemen even if both true freshmen wear a redshirt as rookies. When you look at the interior of their line, they might have depth that could be the best they’ve had in Cut's tenure. The issue up front is the pass rush.

At LB, they play a 4-2-5 set, and in the spring, that took a major hit when Kelby Brown's tore his ACL for the 2^nd time in his career ending his season. That loss is going to take a big hit on their D. Finding someone to step into Brown’s shoes isn’t going to be easy. It would have to start with Junior Deion Williams, but needs to include Senior C.J. France and a handful of underclassmen, which includes RS Freshmen Dominic McDonald and Chris Holmes. The latter (Holmes) is set to spend his first year behind WS LB David Helton, who had 133 tackles in 2013, and himself a likely all-league selection and the new leader of the front six. While Helton is a nice player who will produce, he’s not the player Brown is.

As for their secondary, it’ll be up to how two new starters, both sophomores do, and true sophomores to boot in Bryon Fields and Breon Borders, Oh, by the way, they’ll be asked to step in at CB as their starter from 2013 have graduated in Ross Cockrell and Garett Patterson. You might question it at first, but look deeper; Fields and Borders were significant and irreplaceable parts of last year's defense. They came up big and stepped into the lineup right away and produced. Also, don’t be shocked if they use sophomore DeVon Edwards (64 tackles, 3 interceptions) in a Cockrell-like role, and move him around the whole secondary. But look for Edwards to be a majority of the time on the back end of the 4-2-5, sharing space with sophomore Deondre Singleton (63 tackles) and junior Jeremy Cash (121 tackles, 4 interceptions). Cash is an All-American. The thing is, Duke has the talent and the athletes back here. They are not to be taken lightly at all here. They’re young to boot.

On Special teams, they are very good, even though they had off years. Monday is an All-American Punter, and Maritin is an All-ACC Kicker. You have back Jamison Crowder and Edwards, and you have one of the better ST units in the ACC.

Next, I want to talk about the Coaching:

What can you say about David Cutcliffe? What this man has done to turn Duke around is unbelievable. He gets the most out of the talent he has. This guy has won everywhere he’s gone (Tennessee, Ole Miss, and now Duke).

Now, to their 2014 Schedule:

Off a 10-4 record in 2013 and a Coastal Division title, Duke in 2014 will not sneak up on anyone this year. Let’s break the Blue Devils schedule down.

In their opener, Duke gets Elon at home. Now, Elon is what Duke used to be — a football program most people do not realize even exists. There are perhaps 6,000 students at tiny Elon University, also located in North Carolina. They are in the FCS and playing in the Colonial Athletic Association. They’re breaking in a new Head Coach in Rich Skrosky, who comes over from Ball State. How far Duke has come that it now has cupcake games like this to start with. Duke wins here easily.

In Week 2, another tune-up game for the Blue Devils, as they make the trip down to Troy, Alabama to take on the Troy Trojans. While, the Trojans are a nice team from the Sun Belt Conference, and gave Duke Fits last year, they will not defeat the Blue Devils this year.  Duke wins comfortably here.

In week 3, the Blue Devils are back home, to take on Kansas and Charlie Weis. Weis is on the hot seat in Lawrence, and they are still rebuilding. It’ll be a while before they’re a .500 or better team. They haven’t won on the road since 2009. Won’t happen in this one either. Duke wins this one. 

In week 4, they’re home again, this time to face the Tulane Green Wave. Here’s interesting tidbit here about the Green Wave. They have a legally blind player, who’s a freshman long-snapper, and he's good at it. The problem is that he doesn’t play where it needs the most help: On O. CJ’s boys won’t be able to hang with the Blue Devils for 4 quarters here. Duke is just too much for Tulane here and gets the win to improve to a projected 4-0. 

In week 5, they open ACC play with a trip to Miami Gardens to take on the Hurricanes. In last year’s loss, we didn’t have Duke at all. This will be a shootout. In the end, we have payback on our minds and I believe the D finds a way to pull it out for us over Duke.

In Week 6, they have a BYE, and coming off the BYE in Week 7, they’re in Atlanta to face GT. However, note that this is not the same Tech team that demolished Duke last year. They lost a main cog in QB Vad Lee and much of their O. You could see Crowder have a field day against that porous Tech D. Duke bounces back and gets revenge for last year’s beat down by GT.

In Week 8, they host UVa, who are just awful, and Mike London’s seat will already be blistering hot at this point and it won’t cool here after this one.  Duke wins BIG here.

In Week 9, they have their 2^nd BYE, and in Week 10 off the BYE, they make the trip up to Heinz Field in Pittsburgh to take on the Pitt Panthers, in a rematch of a classic shootout the Panthers won 58-55 last year in Durham. With Pitt’s QB Tom Savage now gone, it won’t be the shootout it was last year, and Duke is vastly improved at this point defensively. Give it to Duke on the road here.

In Week 11, they’re on the road again on a Thursday Night, a short week, at Syracuse. The Orange were inconsistent at year ago. While Syracuse is building something for down the road, they don’t have enough weapons to beat the Blue Devils on this night. Its Duke’s road finale and this is a game the Blue Devils win comfortably.

In Week 12, they’re back home for the final stretch of games at Wallace-Wade Stadium, starting with VT. For years, VT had their way with the Blue Devils, but that changed with last year’s win in Blacksburg. I know under to underestimate Frank Beamer and Bud Foster, but they just lost too many weapons on D and Logan Thomas is gone, and there’s no go to guy on VT’s O. Duke’s passing game is rolling here. I can Duke winning this one by 10-14 points in this one.

In Week 13, they host Carolina on ESPN on a Thursday night, and it's not a basketball game! If Duke were to win this game, it would make a major statement that Duke is legit and not a one-hit wonder. It’s another short week for the Blue Devils here. Carolina wants that Victory Bell back and wants to erase the sting of the Blue Devils winning the Coastal on their field. As much as Carolina’s QB Marquise Williams wants to the chance to prove he's something special, at the end of the day, Duke will be again a little too much for the Tar Heels. Duke gets the win over UNC.

In the season finale, they host Wake. While the Deacons are awful, new coach Dave Clawson will make sure they get better each year. However, with a lot on the line, and it being Senior Day, and off a projected big win over an arch-rival 9 days earlier, there will be no letdown here. Duke wins handily to finish 11-1.

My prediction on the Game vs. CANES:

This is a payback game for last year’s embarrassment in Durham. It’s easily the low point in the Golden era. We want to badly pay Duke back for that. Off a projected big win in Lincoln, and given what they did last year to us up there, there will be ZERO letdowns for this one. I think we’re going to win this one and the D will make a key play late to seal the win.

In Part 6 of the 2014 series, I will talk about the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, our opponent on October 4^th up in Atlanta at Bobby Dodd Stadium.

Report Card @ Duke

Just when I thought it couldn't get any worse, yesterday's performance up in Durham proved me wrong. This is definitely the low point of the Golden era to date. I will dare say, yesterday's performance, to me, rivals that of the 48-0 OB finale in 2007 vs Virginia (by the way, our opponent this week in the Home finale at Noon on ESPNU). Like last week, we score first on Matty's FG, then we stop Duke on the next drive and force a punt, and after Stacy takes a punt back to the house to make it 10-0, we had a real chance to bust this game wide open on Stacy's PR, however, give Duke credit, they responded with the first of 4 Brandon Connette Rushing TD to make it 10-7.

Next drive, Stephen drives us down the field and we finish with 7 on that drive on the TD pass to Herbie. Its 17-7 at that point and I thought to myself, ok, now we're going to blow this sucker wide open. 

However, the mistakes started to come in the 2nd quarter. The pick by Stephen on the tipped ball that was intended for Herbie there, started to turn the game in their favor because 6 plays later, they make us pay for that mistake with the Powell TD, and instead of possibly 24-7 us, its 17-14 us (14 point swing, and mo was on their side at that point). We did stem the tide a bit with Matty's second FG of the day to make it 20-14. Next drive, Duke would get the lead, 21-20, on a 10 play drive, in which they converted on three 3rd downs, all of them short yardage situations, capping with Connette's 2nd of 4 TDs on the day rushing. You can tell that that TD that gave Duke the lead really took the wind out of our sails there because they got the ball first to start the 2nd half and the D really started to fall apart from there. 

Yesterday, like the three weeks, was a very poor excuse of a defense. What I saw again from Mark D'Onofrio's scheme was utterly embarrassing and completely inexcusable. 543 yards allowed (291 yards allowed in the 2nd half, same as last week vs VT. Boone goes 20-27 in the 2nd half for 183 yards, same amount of yards Thomas had against us last week) Of those 543 yards allowed, 358 of those were on the ground and 185 by both Boone and Connette combined passing. We didn't win the TO battle again yesterday (-1) and when you don't win the Turnover Battle, you're not going to win many games. However, yesterday was no excuse not to beat a team you should beat in your sleep 9 out of 10 times. This loss is squarely on the Defense. Duke started their drives from their own 31 on Average, and we started our drives from our own 18 on average. Not going to win many games that way when you have poor field position to start with. 

We had no Three and Outs, which is good, however, we had three 4 and outs, and the fourth was one where we went for it and lost the ball on downs. We did force Duke to have three 3 and outs. The Time of Possession wasn't that big a deal in this game, however, what really showed the ineptness of our defense under D'Onofrio was the fact that in spite of not allowing Duke to convert on 3rd down in the 2nd half (0-6), they were 5-13 overall, on 4th down, we couldn't stop them in those two big spots. On the other hand in those same situations, we were 5-15 in those spots and just 1-7 in the 2nd half. 

I'm going to give the report card and its going again be very simple. 

Offense: C+

Defense: F

Special Teams: C

I don't know where we are right now, but once again, we've gagged away a shot to go to Charlotte to face FSU. Make no mistake, and if you believe Joe Zagaski this morning when he said that Golden will make major changes in the off-season, I tend to believe it. Heads are going to roll from this fiasco in Durham yesterday, that's for damn sure. If we have some pride left, I'd better see it vs UVa on Saturday in the home finale. That team has beaten us three straight years and we need to get back on track very quickly up at home on Saturday at Noon on ESPNU.

Tip of the cap to David Cutcliffe. What an amazing job he's done to turn that program around in Durham. If they get to Charlotte, FSU will have all it could handle from them. Yes, FSU will still win that game, but if they think they're going to steamroll the Blue Devils in Charlotte, they have another thing coming. That's all for this week. 

CANES @ Duke by the Numbers

With back to back losses to FSU and VT, we need to get back on the winning track, with the focus now turning to a trip to Durham, NC on Saturday Afternoon at 3:30 p.m. on ESPNU vs Duke, which is coming off a win vs NC State last week at home. Here's the breakdown by the numbers:

Total O vs Total D

CANES Total O vs Duke Total D

446.3 ypg (41st) vs 386.8 ypg allowed (57th) 

Duke Total O vs CANES Total D

409.3 (64th) vs 384.7 ypg allowed (54th)

Scoring O vs Scoring D

CANES Scoring O vs Duke Scoring D

35 ppg (32nd) vs. 22.2 ppg allowed (33rd)

Duke Scoring O vs CANES Scoring D

33.4 ppg (42nd) vs 23 ppg allowed (41st)

Rushing O vs Rushing D

CANES Rush O vs Duke Rush D

179.3 ypg (58th) vs 167.2 ypg allowed (69th)

Duke Rush O vs CANES Rush D

165.9 ypg (69th) vs 151.9 ypg (50th)

Passing O vs. Passing D 

CANES Pass O vs Duke Pass D

267 ypg (36th) vs 219.6 ypg allowed (40th)

Duke Pass O vs CANES Pass D

243.4 ypg (58th) vs. 232.8 ypg allowed (T-69th) 

Red Zone O vs Red Zone D 

CANES RZ O vs Duke RZ D

.775 (T-92nd) vs. .714 (T-12th)

Duke RZ O vs CANES RZ D

.821 (T-74th) vs. .808 (T-51st)

Pass Efficiency vs Pass Efficiency D

CANES PE vs Duke PE Def.

154.65 (17th) vs. 123.81 (59th)

Duke PE vs CANES PE Def. 

134.52 (59th) vs. 121.29 (47th)

Sacks vs Sacks Allowed

CANES Sacks vs Duke Sacks Allowed

25-145 [2.78 pg] (T-24th) vs. 12-70 [1.33 pg] (T-32nd)

Duke Sacks vs CANES Sacks Allowed

17-108 [1.89 pg] (T-64th) vs. 11-101 [1.22 pg] (T-20th)

3rd Down O vs 3rd Down D

CANES 3rd Down O vs Duke 3rd Down D

42-108 [39%] (73rd) vs. 52-147 [35%] (34th)

Duke 3rd Down O vs CANES 3rd Down D

47-126 [37%] (81st) vs. 53-137 [39%] (58th)

On the surface, Duke doesn't scare me as much when I look at their numbers. However, they have returned two punts back to the house this year and they are 18th in the nation and 2nd in the ACC in Punt Return Yardage with almost 13 ypr (12.88 to be exact). Our STs are going to have to play a lot better than they did vs VT. Where Duke does the real damage is in the 2nd half, outscoring opponents by a combined score of 166-82. They have two very good QBs that are over 1,000 yards for the season in Connette (1,411 yards) and Boone (1,172). Make no mistake, we'd better get the bad taste of the last two losses out of our mouths very quickly, because come Saturday Afternoon up in Durham, we're going to face a Duke team that is very very dangerous, and Cut will have them ready to play, and they're playing for a trip to Charlotte, so we need to come out and match their intensity pretty quickly, because if we don't, it'll be trouble. Let's back on track this week, and GO CANES! 

Report Card vs VT

Last night was one of the most pathetic performances I've seen from the Miami Hurricanes since the 48-0 OB finale in 2007 vs Virginia. Last night's game, to me, rivals it. After we get the first TD from Stephen to Stacy for 84, and we stop VT on the next drive and force a punt, we had a real chance to bust this game wide open on Stacy's PR, and was just about to go up 14-0, when he fumbled, and VT recovered, and instead, it was 7-7. (14 point swing and VT had gotten the mo). 

On the ensuing Kickoff, Artie has a big return and possibly take one back to the house, when he loses the ball and VT recovers that. 5 plays later, after Tracy forces a fumble, they take the lead for good at 14-7 on the very next play after Tracy's FF that VT recovered.  Early in the 2nd after we went 3 and out, we have a bad snap, and Patty puts his knee down and VT has a very short field starting at our 17, and score two plays later to go up 21-7. 

One play that told the story about our night was the Stanford TD on 3rd and 17. The tackling was abysmal. On that play, a stop had to be made and at worst, you hold them to a FG, instead, he goes 32 yards for the TD, and instead of maybe 24-14, its 28-14. That's a four point swing right there in Tech's favor. 

Another was the forced fumbles we caused that could have swung mo back our way, instead, VT was Johnny on the spot both times. It seemed the breaks went their way. The second FF that was recovered by VT for the TD, turned out to be the back-breaker. We did the right thing on that, but they were a step faster than we were on those both times. 

Last night was a very poor excuse of a defense. What I saw last night from Mark D'Onofrio's scheme was utterly embarrassing and completely inexcusable. 549 yards allowed last night (291 yards allowed in the 2nd half. Thomas goes 10-12 in the 2nd half for 183 yards) Of those 549 yards allowed, 183 of those were on the ground and 366 by Thomas passing. We didn't win the TO battle last night (-2) and when you don't win the Turnover Battle, you're not going to win many games, and last night vs a Top 10 Defense in Tech, we didn't win and we certainly won't win when you have -8 yards rushing in the 4th quarter like we did last night. This loss is on really two areas: Defense and Special Teams. VT started their drives from their own 28 on Average, and we started our drives from our own 24 on average. 

We had 4 Three and Outs last night, to just 2 for VT. The Time of Possession in the 2nd half was startling, and shows the ineptness of our defense under D'Onofrio. VT had the ball for 21:32 to just 8:28 for our Offense. For the game, VT was 57% on 3rd Down conversions. In the 2nd half, they were 78% on 3rd Down conversions. On the other hand in those same situations, we were 3-12 in those spots. That won't get it done vs a team as stout as VT is, especially on D. 

I'm going to give the report card and its going to be very simple. 

Offense: D-

Defense: F

Special Teams: F

I don't know where we are right now, but let's understand this, we do not control our own fate anymore after that fiasco last night. We have to get back on track very quickly up in Durham on Saturday at 3:30 on ESPNU against a very good Duke team. That's all for this week. 

2013 Miami Hurricanes 12 Part Opponent Series - Part 10 (@Duke Nov 16th)

Nov 16^th - @Duke

In Part 10 of the 12 part 2013 Miami Hurricanes Opponent Series, we’ll talk about the 2013 Duke Blue Devils, our opponent up in Durham, NC on November 16^th.

Here’s what you need to know about the Blue Devils:

They are coached by David Cutcliffe, who while 21-40 in his five years in Durham, he improved the Blue Devils win total in each of his first two seasons there, putting the foundation in place to be going bowling in 2010, but at that didn’t happen. Even worse, in 2011, they only won three games. Think about this, Cut’s 15 wins in his first four years was the program's best stretch since the days of Steve Spurrier. Then in 2012, was finally a bowl game, making Cut’s hard work pay off. He and the staff has the belief into creating a winning football program from the bottom up. Think Bill Snyder back in the 90s, building Kansas State into a power after years of futility.  

In his career, which includes parts of seven seasons at Ole Miss, his record is 65-67. Though you look at the record, and you think, OK, he was a so-so coach. Look deeper and you see about the job he did in Oxford developing one future Super Bowl winning QB in Eli Manning. He’s best-known for being a long time assistant in Knoxville with Tennessee, where he spent 19 seasons as an assistant. That started way back in 1982, when he started his career being a part-time assistant, and continued through 1998 and along the way, developed another Super Bowl winning QB, that would be Eli’s older brother, Peyton. When he was canned from from Ole Miss in 2004, he took a year off due to health issues; he was supposed to be on Charlie Weis' staff as the first quarterbacks coach at Notre Dame, before his health issues forced him to step down before the start of that season. In 2006, he came back to Knoxville for a two-year stint before being tabbed as the boss in Durham.

This man’s resume with Tennessee is impeccable. He spent six seasons as their TE coach, (1983-88), one season as their RB coach (1989) and three being the QB coach (1990-92) before being finally getting to run the whole offense as OC, where he earned his stripes and being recognized as one of the best play-callers in the country. When he went to Oxford for his first HC stint, he finished a winning record every year for his first five years, which included a 10-win 2003 season that was highlighted by a SEC West co-championship and a Cotton Bowl win. Cut can coach, there’s no doubt about that. To succeed at Duke, it takes a special kind of coach and that’s something Cut is.  

Let’s break down the Blue Devils:

Offensively: Yes, they will change their style of offense this year, from the pass-heavy system led by Sean Renfree, who graduated and was drafted in the 7^Th Round by the Atlanta Falcons, to more of a zone-read offense that will be led by Junior quarterback Anthony Boone, who was Renfree’s backup the past two seasons. He’s done ok under center, albeit with little notice, and will clearly be their starter this year. He clinched that with a strong performance back in the Spring. The question here is: Is he the right fit for the zone-read offense Cut wants to employ this year? We'll see in August and September. Some would say that the better fit for zone-read would have been RS Freshman Thomas Sirk, however, an Achilles injury back in the Spring cast doubt on whether he would play this year. What does that mean? It means there’s a possibility that in this offense, Junior Brandon Connette might be pressed into duty at QB, which in that scenario, you take away a player that can hurt you other ways.

By going to more of a run-first, balanced offense, this will give more chances for returning backs like Senior Juwan Thompson (352 yards), Junior Josh Snead (496 yards) and Sophomore Jela Duncan (553 yards). Those three will get the bulk of the action there, but the running game should roll more through Duncan and Thompson, than with Snead, with Thompson having an edge due to the fact that he’s a better pass protector. However, another option might be Connette, If this offense wants to widen the field on first and second down, it would be imperative to put Snead and Duncan next to Boone in the zone read. That would keep opposing defenses on their toes more, especially vs the run. Here’s something about the Duke offense in 2012: They ran the ball about 400 times last season, averaging 3.71 yards per carry, and in 2013, those numbers will only go up.

As for the passing game, they lost Conner Vernon, to graduation and the NFL (being signed as an UDFA by the Oakland Raiders), Here’s what they miss in Vernon, he scored the GW TD vs UNC, however, they do get back a very valuable piece in Junior Jamison Crowder (76 receptions for 1,074 yards), who’s an All-ACC-level WR. While Crowder was in the mix last year, their #1 target was Vernon. When you look at the 2012 season Crowder had, it was a big time season there as a secondary option, though in name only. The numbers he had is more for a #1 target. The rest of that core is built on their size. Six of their weapons are over 6'2”, and when you count their two tight ends, there are going to be some mismatches in the slot that Cut will exploit. When you have back Juniors Isaac Blakeney (32 for 290) and Jack Wise, as well as Senior Brandon Braxton, Sophomore Max McCaffrey and RS Freshman Anthony Nash, with the latter, being the one talent, their staff is high on, Duke has some potent weapons to make things very tough for secondaries in the ACC. The main target here will be clearly Crowder.

When you look at their O-Line, it’s pretty solid. However, the Center position is the question mark might here, however, RS Sophomore Matt Skura might have put those concerns at Center to bed, after Brian Moore's departure to graduation (Signed as UDFA by the Buffalo Bills) by having a strong spring. Even if Skura gets off to a slow start, they’ll still be able to have steady starters at both guard spots  (Senior Dave Harding on the left side, and Junior Laken Tomlinson on the right). The strength of this line is in pass protection, and that’s because of consistently strong play by Junior LT Takoby Cofield and Senior RT Perry Simmons. Both players are all-ACC contenders. On the strong side, they’re going to integrate alternating underclassmen like RS Freshman Casey Blaser into the mix in certain situations. The pass protection is very strong, the question here is, can they be very good run blockers as well?

Defensively: Their back seven took a hit to injuries and/or Graduation. So they will have to break in a new group there. For DC Jim Knowles, this will be the highest priority this season. They really need a full and healthy season from Senior Kenny Anunike (44 tackles, 5.0 sacks). He seems fully recovered from his 2^nd knee injury of his college career. The 1^st knee injury, cut down his 2011 season. The question here is: What can Anunike do for their line up front?  When he’s healthy, this defense gets an All-ACC end capable of an effective pass rush and having double-digit sack seasons, and commanding double and triple teams, which opens lanes for his fellow linemen into the opposing backfield. As Anunike's goes, so goes their D in 2013 and whether or not they make a repeat bowl appearance.

The bulk of their pass rush comes from their DE’s (Anunike and fellow Senior Justin Foxx {46 tackles, 4.5 sacks}). They’ll get the bulk of the attention, and in turn, it’ll open up the interior of their line to do the damage. DT’s like Jamal Bruce, Sydney Sarmiento (28 tackles), Carlos Wray, Steven Ingram and RS Freshmen Sam Marshall and A.J. Wolf would be the beneficiaries there. There are two concerns with the Line:

1.    These interior linemen don’t push.

a.    They are big guys.

                                          i.     but they can’t beat single blocks

                                        ii.    And they don’t wreak havoc

2.    They need to have at least another pair of DE’s that can wreak havoc off the edge

a.    Preferably one or two pure edge rushers.

b.    That’s something they don’t have right now.

They do have freshmen and sophomores who can fill that role very nicely.

As for the LBs, they have three starters looking to fill two spots. Two are named Brown, so you can expect some rotation there on the weak side. One of the Brown’s: Kyler, will be the full time MLB as getting two starts in 2012 at that position. On the outside, there’s another Brown: a healthy Kelby, who might be able to give a push to Junior C.J. France (60 tackles) for a starting spot, or maybe win the job outright. If healthy, Kelby Brown could give this unit a much need boost as they shift from a 4-2-5 to a 4-3 set.

As for the Secondary, this area took the biggest hit due to graduation: They lose three starters off the 2012 unit in:

·         CB Lee Butler (Graduation)

·         S Walt Canty (Graduation)

·         S Jordan Byas (Graduation)

They do get back though, Senior CB Ross Cockrell, who will be an All-ACC contender, even though the number might not say so. They’re going to stay away from his side. That means Senior Garett Patterson, Sophomores Jared Boyd and James Cockey, as well as RS Freshman DeVon Edwards and Freshman Evrett Edwards, who are the many contenders angling for a starting spot on the outside, all need to step up when called upon and produce, making the QB think twice of throwing to that side. They believe the one with the best potential is Edwards, who enrolled early in school, However, you have Patterson moving over from WR to CB. Boyd, when healthy, can contribute and have good numbers. Back to Edwards for a moment, he spent last season adjusting to this system, so let’s hold off for now on anointing him the starter on the outside.

At the Safety position, they need someone to step up and produce. The one they are high on is Sophomore, Dwayne Norman (60 tackles), who started five games as a freshman last year; while he was pretty solid play-wise, and had some toughness needed to play that position, when it came to coverage, there wasn’t much there. You have to remember, Norman's is playing the ROVER, so his main focus was trying to stop the run. They’ll go with either Senior Anthony Young-Wiseman or RS Freshman Corbin McCarthy in Byas' former role, though with both player recovering from injuries this spring, the options were limited there. The biggest role at Safety, which is Canty's former "bandit" position, is going to former Ohio State transfer Jeremy Cash. A sophomore, he has made their staff take notice with his play in the spring over the last two years. In 2013, he’s going to be asked to step up and get the big numbers on the back end.

Special teams: They have one of the best kicking games in the country. They have back two potential All-Americans in Sophomores Ross Martin at K and Will Monday at P. As good as their kicking game is, there’s the problem of their kick coverage. That unit went backwards in 2012 and you add to the fact that they must find a replacement for their leading returner on kickoffs and punts (Vernon). However, when you have Martin and Monday doing the kicking/punting duties, for the most part, they’ll be fine.

In closing, Duke has the chance to get even better and Cut has them in the right direction. They have 14 starters back (7 each on O and D). This team is going to win at least 6 again in 2013. Whether they win 8 or 9 games depends on three games early in September, all at home. GT on Sept 14^Th, Pitt on Sept 21^st, and Troy on Sept 28^Th, If they win those three, and the Navy game at home after the BYE week on Oct 12^Th, this could be a 6-0 team going into a very tough two games in the state of Virginia (Oct 12^Th in Charlottesville, and Oct 19^Th in Blacksburg). When I look at the schedule realistically, I see an 8-4 season for Duke in 2013.

In part 11 of the series, I will preview a team that has beaten us the last three years, and that’s the Virginia Cavaliers. 

Part 12 of 12 part CANE 2012 opponent series

In the 12th and final part of the 2012 CANE opponent series, we'll talk about the 2012 Duke Blue Devils.

Let's be honest here, when you think of Duke, the first thing that comes to mind is Coach K. Very few people mention Duke and football in the same sentence. To put that in perspective, did you know that the football team has only been in 2 bowl games since 1961, and none since 1994, when they went 8-4 and lost in the Hall of Fame Bowl 34-20 to Wisconsin. The Blue Devils haven’t been ranked in the AP poll since December 6th, 1994 when they were ranked 25th. Let's be very clear here, they will never be on the level as the hoops team is. However, when they hired David Cutcliffe in 2008, he was given the job to make Duke respectable on the gridiron. His 4 year record is less than stellar going 15-33 in that stretch, which averages about 4 wins a year. Before Cut arrived in Durham, they were even more pathetic going 6-45 under former coach Ted Roof. That is 21 wins in 8 years, that's just god awful. 

Last year, they had another forgettable seasong going 3-9. They started out 0-2 including a 23-21 loss to FCS power Richmond before winning 3 games in a row against Boston College (Miami's opening day opponent this year), Tulane, and FIU. They promptly lost their final 9 games of the season, though their losses were by 10 points or less to teams such as Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Georgia Tech, all of whom went to bowl games.

There is hope in Durham as they have most of their starters and back-ups returning in 2012, however, the big question is how much? Their schedule is brutal, with 7 teams ranked in the Top 40, and not to mention the fact that this a very young team. 

Let's start with the Offense: Kurt Roper has been Cut's OC for all of his 4 years in Durham. The way Cut and Roper make the Offense work is that they'll use plenty of passes to the sidelines, and count on an efficient hurry-up offense. The offense was ranked #61 in the country in 2011. 

They have 5th year Senior Sean Renfree (6'5" 225) back to run Cut's offense. In the passing game in 2011, they weren't too bad, ranking 28th nationally in passing with an average of 272 yards a game. He was very efficient with his passes, completing 65% of his passes last year for 2,891 yards and 13 TDs, however, he did get picked off 11 times. Also, he did get sacked 18 times, but also had 4 TDs rushing. RS Sophomore Anthony Boone will be the back-up to Renfree. In 2011, he threw for just under 300 yards with a touchdown and a pick. Where Boone did his damage was with his legs, as he was their third leading rusher on the team with 129 yards, and 4 TDs. When Renfree is gone after this season, he's going to be their QB whom they have very high hopes for. 

They also get back their two leading rushers from a year ago, that's the good news. The bad news is that their running game was last in the ACC, and 5th to last in the country, averaging a measly 94 yards per game. Junior Juwan Thompson (5'11" 225) had 110 carries, 457 yards, and 7 TDs rushing, but also had 22 receptions for 182 yards, with 1 TD. Senior Desmond Scott (5'9" 190) carried the ball 72 times for 367 yards, and 2 TDs. He also had 25 receptions for 135 yards. They add to the mix in 2012, a pair of talented, freshmen whom the staff is very high on in Shaquille Powell (5'10" 205) and Jela Duncan (5'10" 200). Look for them to get some action in the backfield. 

In the receiving core, they had two go-to guys in Connor Vernon and Donovan Varner. Vernon (6'1" 200) is  back for his Senior year, however, Varner is gone to graduation. In 2011, he had 61 receptions for 713 yards, and 3 TDs. Vernon had 70 receptions for 956 yards, and 5 TDs. The question here is that who will line up across from Vernon and fill Varner's big shoes? They are very thin at WR. One of their former WRs, Brandon Braxton moved to the defensive side of the ball at Safety, after he had 40 receptions last year. Sophomore receiver Blair Holliday (6'3" 205) was in a jet ski accident on July 4, and almost died. However, he did suffer a severe head injury and was finally able to speak just a few weeks ago for the first time since the accident. They won't have RS Sophomore TE Braxton Deaver at their disposal because he's gone for the year with a broken kneecap, and that's after he already tore his ACL in January and broke his thumb in the  off season. The only ones with experience coming back are Sophomore Jamison Crowder (5'9", 175) and RS Junior Corey Gattis (5'11" 165). The backs should be able to pick up some of the slack with the receptions, however, look for a lot of double teams on Vernon unless someone else steps up and produces. 

If there's a bright spot here, its that seven offensive linemen are back and this group has a combined 90 games experience, including 5th year Senior Center Brian Moore (6'2" 285), and RS Junior tackle Perry Simmons (6'5" 300). Their running game will be better due to the depth and experience here which is plentiful. 

On the other side of the ball, defensively, this was a very young unit, under DC Jim Knowles. He uses  uses a 4-2-5 defense. They were 105th in the country, however, since they get most of their starters back in 2012, they will be better here, hell, it can't get any worse here. 

Let's start with the D-Line. The line must replace tackles Charlie Hatcher and Curtis Hazelton, who are gone to graduation. On the outside, their Ends RS Senior Kenny Anunike (6'5" 260) and RS Sophomore Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo (6'4" 240) combined for a whopping 6 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, and two forced fumbles, however, they missed spring practice due to  injury. If they're not ready to start the season, RS Junior Justin Foxx (6'3" 245), RS Sophomores Dezmond Johnson (6'4" 250), and Jamal Wallace (6'4" 275) are healthy at DE and will have to step up until Anunike and DeWalt-Ondijo come back later in the year. This is a deep unit here. Filling the shoes left behind by Hatcher and Hazelton are RS Junior Sydney Sarmiento (6'4" 300)  at one tackle, and RS Sophomores Nick Sink (6'5" 285) and Steven Ingram (6'2" 315) battling for the other spot at DT. 

Now to the Linebackers, they get back Junior Kelby Brown (6'2" 220) and Senior Austin Gamble (6'1" 245). In 2011, they combined to have 12.5 tackles for loss, which included 3.5 sacks. They'll add Freshmen Keilin Rayner (6'3" 255, who's a converted NG) and Deion Williams (6' 230) to a unit that will be very strong for them in 2012. 

They have to find a way to replace safety Matt Daniels (who signed with St. Louis as a undrafted FA) in the secondary. In 2011, he had 4 tackles for loss, a pick and broke up 14 passes. Here's where Braxton is going to replace him. RS Junior CB Ross Cockrell (6' 180) is back in 2012 after breaking up 9 passes last season and also had a pick. They also get back their other three Safeties in Senior Walt Canty (6'1" 220), 5th year Senior Jordan Byas (6'1" 220), and RS Junior August Campbell (6'3" 225).

Their strengths on D are the LBs, and in the secondary. The big question here is whether the D-Line can put an effective pass rush consistently for their back 7 to be effective. 

On Special Teams, They're going to have to find a way to replace both kicker Will Snyderwine and punter Alex King. Its going to be up to RS Freshman Will Monday to handle both those responsibilities. He does have a strong leg and his punts hung in the air for a long time on the High School level, however, if he stumbles, its going to be up to Sophomore kicker Jack Willoughby and/or junior punter Spencer Rogers to pick up the slack there. 

Look for Crowder to return both kicks and punts. He did have some promise in 2011 as a freshman. 

They were third in the nation in 2011, when it came to covering kicks, as they allowed just 17.5 yards a return. If this is still a strength, it might tough for opponents to go 80 yards every time down.

Now, to their Schedule, their non-conference schedule outside of a trip to Palo Alto, is easy. They had better take advantage of it because the conference schedule is brutal. They host FIU in their opener, before heading out West. Figure they'll be 1-1 coming home to face North Carolina Central and Memphis. Figure they'll be 3-1, barring anything unforeseen. 

Here's where it gets brutal for Duke. They play 7 of the 8 teams from the conference that went to a bowl in 2011, except for NC State. They have to go to Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Florida St, and Georgia Tech. They do get Virginia, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami (in the season finale) at home. They will be underdogs in every conference game.

Outlook, yes, they will be better on both sides, however, at the end of the day, looking at that conference schedule and how brutal it is, I can't see them winning a league game this year. Whit the seat getting warmer in Durham for Cut, another 3-9 season could be the straw that breaks the camel's back and Cut might be shown the door if that happens, which I predict will happen. 

That's it for the 12 part opponent series for the Miami Hurricanes in 2012. The season starts in 7 days and here's to a great season of College Football ahead.