Keys to the game @FSU

As you know by now, we are a 21 point underdog on Saturday Night at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. Game time is 8 p.m. on ABC with College Gameday in Tallahassee. 

Most of the experts predict an FSU blowout on Saturday Night. I think we have a pretty good chance to win up there. Here are my keys to a CANES victory at Doak. 

1. No Turnovers - Absolutely under no circumstances can we turn the ball over because that's asking for big trouble in a hostile environment like we're going to face. FSU is 11th in the country in Turnover Margin at +8 (1.1 per game). Ball security is going to be critical in this game. Stephen Morris cannot have a 4 INT game up there like he did in Chapel Hill and expect to win. That cannot happen. Most of their turnovers they force is via the Pick. 
2. Morris has to be at a minimum 65% completion rate - Morris' completion rate this year is 60% (.599). He needs to manage the game properly and on occasion, take shots downfield when they are there. He's going to be facing the best pass defense in the country in FSU, which allows just 153.7 ypg passing on the season. FSU opp pass completion rate is 52%. Their opponents pass efficiency rate is 95.92, which is 5th in the country. He must make very good decisions on Saturday Night. 
3. Run the football effectively - If there's a weakness in the FSU defense, its vs the Run, which is 29th in the country allowing 135.7 ypg on the season. The magic number, IMO, is 175 yards rushing combined from Duke, Dallas, Clements, et al. I feel if we're close to that or exceed it, I think we have a very good chance to leave Doak a winner. No fumbles at all. I go back to ball security because at times this year, it has been an issue and up there, we cannot have fumbles lost here by the backs in this game. We have to do what BC did on the ground and they were very effective at it too. 
4. TDs, not FGs - FSU's RZ Defense isn't as good as in years past (this year, they are tied for 33rd with Wisconsin in that department with opponents converting 76.5% of the time. We have to finish drives with TDs, not FGs. We cannot leave any important points on the field in a game like this.
5. Pressure Winston - Our defense is 11th in the nation in Sacks, averaging 3.14 per game. Its going to be imperative to get to Winston early and we must rattle him early and often because if we give him time to throw, he's going to pick us apart. You can force Winston into mistakes. Make him have to beat our defense throwing. That's a risk because FSU is 11th in the country in Passing offense, averaging 341.4 ypg. They're 3rd in the nation in yards per completion averaging 16.83 ypc. Our Defense is 10th in the country in Pass Efficiency with a 104.77 rate. 
6. Stop FSU on 3rd Downs - FSU hasn't been in many 3rd down situations this year, in fact, they have the fewest attempts in the country (69), but when they are in these situations, they convert 52% of the time. The last two weeks vs Carolina and Wake, our defense has allowed opponents to convert 13 out of 31 attempts (42%). Its vital, the D makes stops on 3rd downs and gets off the field. We have to make FSU have to convert the long yardage situations on 3rd down. 
7. Field position - This is a battle we have GOT to win. FSU starts their drives on average from their own 31. Their opponents have started their drives from an average of their own 26. We cannot expect our offense to have to go 80+ yards per drive. We have to have short fields to work with. Make FSU have to go 80+ yards per drive and not allow the big play. FSU's PR Defense is next to last in the country with opponents allowing 26 ypr on Punts, while our PR Defense is 101st allowing 11.5 ypr. On KRs, they are 28th allowing 740 yards in Kick Return Yards. We lead the nation in KR yardage averaging almost 30 yards a return (29.62). FSU is 17th averaging 25.13 per return. Our KR Defense is tied with UCLA for 22nd allowing 466 yards in Kick Returns. FSU is 29th in PR yards averaging 11.8 per return, while we're tied with W. Michigan for 62nd averaging 8.1 ypr. We have to play a clean game here and no penalties because in a game like this, field position is going to be crucial. 

Those are my keys to a CANES win up in Tallahassee. 

Report Card and Game Balls vs Wake Forest

Here's my report card and Game Balls to give out vs Wake Forest. 

Gotta give Wake Forest credit, they killed us on 3rd downs, and on the first drive, they just pound it down our throats. I felt we played a clean game from a turnover perspective and when we needed a play from the D late, we came up with the big pick to clinch the win. We were again out of sync for most of the game and this is still a big problem that almost cost us again yesterday. The good part here was that we didn't turn the ball over in this game and was a +1 in turnover margin. We still have to get the ME's fixed. For the most part though, we again found a way to win late. We did commit 6 penalties for 56 yards, which was a big problem vs a team that doesn't beat itself. However, we still have to clean the mistakes.  

Offensively, we had 391 yards of total offense. 200 yards rushing and 191 passing. Duke had another big game yesterday, with 30 carries for 168 yards and 2 TD (including the GW with :53 left). Dallas Crawford had a poor game with just 35 yards on 7 carries. We had some decent games out of Herbie here having 47 yards on 4 catches, with 1 TD. Clive had a good game as well with 33 yards receiving on 4 catches.  Decent game from Stephen here going 17-28 191 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs. Again yesterday, on the last drive, he stepped up and was a leader with two big completions that led to Duke's GW TD. Duke was the man on the final drive, having 7 carries for 42 yards. However, that said, we still need to be better and clean up those silly mistakes. Of the 6 penalties yesterday, 2 were on the offense (One was a false start on Brandon and the other was an illegal procedure on Shane). The OL did allow another sack in this game. Bottom line, this type of performance won't cut it in Tallahassee. This unit, especially Stephen, has to play a whole lot better and start much faster in Tallahassee if we are to win up there. Grade: C

Defensively, we forced the pick late to seal the win. We allowed 361 yards of total offense last night, however, just 59 of those yards were rushing, and again, we didn't allow a 100 yard rushing game from an individual standpoint. In the 1st half, we allowed 66 yards rushing, but 132 passing and Price had his way with our defense most of the day. However, In the 2nd half, we allowed just 3 yards rushing (-10 yards rushing in the 4th quarter), but 132 yards passing. The rush defense did a pretty good job, however, the tackling is still an issue. and the pass defense was sloppy in the 1st half, but in the 2nd half, it stepped up and made the plays that had to be made, especially at the end with the Antonio Crawford pick. We sacked Price twice, however that Campanero kid from Wake killed us. We allowed him to have 88 yards on 10 receptions and 1 TD. Still, we need to have a complete game from the Defense. To emphasize this point, Wake on 3rd downs were 8-16 (50%) and only forced 2 three and outs. Of the 6 penalties we had in this game, just 1 was on the D (The PI call on Antonio). We did allow 2 X-Plays yesterday, and one of them almost cost us yesterday, and that was the TD in the 4th on a Wheel route. The D came up big again when it had to, but still, there were some ME's here as well that need to get fixed because mistake like that will kill us up there if we don't fix them. Grade: C

Special Teams wise, of our 6 penalties yesterday, half were on this unit, and two on Jamal Carter alone (one for holding and another for an illegal block in the back). Matty did miss a long FG from 40 in the 3rd, but made one from 34 earlier in the game. Another solid return game with 126 yards of total return, 37 on PR's from Stacy, and the 3 KR's from Duke for 75 yards. Solid game from Patty overall. The Punting game was very solid with two of his 4 punts being inside the 20. On Kickoffs, he was rock solid with all four KO's being Touchbacks. The Return Defense was pretty good. Wake had just 20 yards of returns (19 on KR's, but just 1 on one PR). We started drives on Average from our own 32 and Wake started drives from their own 20, which is excellent. We have to fix the penalties, because those type of penalties give up hidden yards and field position, which against FSU up there, that's asking for trouble. Overall, very good, but need to clean up the penalties here. Grade: C

Now, to Game Balls. This week, I'm going to give out three game balls. 

1. Duke Johnson - 30 carries, 168 yards rushing, 2 TDs (including GW with :53 left), 3 ret., 75 yards (213 all-purpose yards). 
2. Antonio Crawford - 1 Game-clinching INT. 
3. Stacy Coley - 2 receptions, 52 yards, including a big catch, that would ultimately change the game from a field position standpoint.  

Overall, I felt we were sloppy, however, we again kept grinding and found a way to win late. That being said, there were still some ME's (Mental Errors), that still need to be fixed, namely the penalties, which are still issues that have to be fixed. The penalties are still a problem, and still a little bit too many of those for my liking. Close games like this build character, and it felt like we were going through the motions again yesterday. Efforts like we had the last two weeks will not cut it vs FSU, because if we play like we did yesterday and in Chapel Hill, we'll get beat and beat badly. Bottom line, we gotta clean up the mistakes before the trip to Tallahassee Next Saturday Night in Primetime on ABC at 8 p.m. (with Gameday up there too). 7-0 is a good feeling right now, but we could still get better and cut the ME's out. Take care and GO CANES! BEAT FSU!