In 2012, the expectations are higher in Raleigh. In past seasons, its been slow starts and strong finishes, another slow start this year and the heat will be Tommy O again. Anyway, let's look at each unit.
Offensively, it starts with QB Graduate student Mike Glennon, who in 2011, ran 56% of the time on standard downs. They need to see more from him in the passing game in 2012 because last season, the running was non-existent. They were 115th in Rushing; and their two primary running backs, Senior James Washington (6' 195) and RS Sophomore Tony Creecy (6' 210), combined for 25 carries per game but only averaged 3.8 yards per carry. However, vs Georgia Tech, they rushed for 208 yards (6.5 per carry) in a losing effort, but just 3.6 per carry against everyone else. If they're going to reach bigger heights in 2012, the running game needs to step it up. Nobody knows how good Glennon is going to be for them. In 2011, when you include sacks, he averaged just 5.9 yards per pass attempt and threw 12 picks, but also had a 63% completion rate and 31 TD passes. He had some good games (253 yards, 7.8 per attempt) and 3 TDs vs. Clemson, (264 yards, 7.6 per attempt) and 3 TDs vs. Louisville in the Belk Bowl victory. However, he did what the staff asked him to do. In 2012, if they tell him to go deep, he won't have T.J. Graham to go anymore (gone to the NFL with the Buffalo Bills). However, he will have Senior Tobias Palmer to go to. In 2011, Graham and Palmer combined to average 15.1 yards per catch. They're going to need a another deep threat to complement Palmer in 2012. If they ask again for him to go short or intermediate, he won't have Jay Smith or Steven Howard to go anymore (both gone to graduation). Both Smith and Howard averaged 9.1 yards per catch, while Washington and Creecy were targeted 6.6 times per game on passes that almost never actually went anywhere. Washington and Creecy are going to have to step up this year in the short to intermediate passing game with Smith and Howard gone.
A key player that will have to step up is Sophomore Mustafa Greene. He missed all of last season with a foot injury and was out of their Spring Practice due to legal issues. The good news is that they return six O-Linemen from 2011. However, the key for their success is how well their line protects Glennon and how good is his decision making in the pocket.
Defensively, they are pretty good, but especially so, when it came to going after the ball. How well? So well that only Oklahoma State and Cincinnati went after the ball better than them in this area. They forced 19 fumbles, picked off 27 passes, and broke up 35 more. This is a very good defense and aggressive too. They shut down the Clemson running game, they held their arch rival North Carolina to 165 total yards, and they made life miserable for former CANE commit, and later went to Louisville, QB Teddy Bridgewater. They were knocking him down all night long and forcing him to throw sooner than he wanted to.
In 2012, they have to replace three key players from their defense. who made at least 9.5 tackles for loss: LBs Terrell Manning (14.5, with four forced fumbles and eight passes defended, 5th round pick by the Green Bay Packers) and Audie Cole (13.5, with four more forced fumbles and four passes defended, 7th round pick by the Minnesota Vikings) and DT Markus Kuhn (9.5, 7th round pick by the NY Giants). You add LB Dwayne Maddox (6.5) and DT J.R. Sweezy (4.0, 7th round pick by the Seattle Seahawks), and you're looking at some holes that have to be filled pretty quickly. However, on the other hand, they do return seven players who had at least 3.0 TFLs in 2011 and could produce at a similar level, if not exceed it in 2012 with more opportunities. Among the returnees are three interesting ends (RS Sophomore Art Norman [6'1" 242], RS Junior Darryl Cato-Bishop [6'4" 278], and Senior Brian Slay [6'3" 274]) who combined for 14.5 sacks in 2011.
Where they are strongest on D is in their secondary. They return a lot of key guys here and if their front seven generate any good pass rush, this is going to be a unit few are going to want to throw to. They return Graduate student S Earl Wolff (6' 207), Senior Brandan Bishop (6'2" 205) and Junior Dontae Johnson (6'3" 205). In 2011, they combined for 9.5 TFLs 8 picks, 8 passes broken up, and 4 forced fumbles. Their best player coming back for them in their secondary is Junior CB David Amerson (6'3" 194). He's possibly the best CB in the country. He picked off 13 passes last year and broke up 5 more); and he almost certainly won't match that total this year, if he does, he'll easily win the Thrope. Some compare him to Ed Reed when he was at the U. He averaged 15.8 yards per return and took two picks back for TDs. As good as Amerson and the secondary is, they are going to have to fill a lot of voids here on D. They lose 5 of their front 7 from 2011 and their top backup Junior D.J. Green (6'4" 220), is suspended for the entire 2012 season because he failed a drug test. You don't replace four key players who combined for 205.0 tackles in 2011, that's 30 percent of their total. To put it in perspective, their three players who were first-stringers on their Spring depth chart and played in their spring game (RS Junior Rickey Dowdy (6'2" 240), Graduate Student Sterling Lucas (6'2" 231), Sophomore Brandon Pittman [6'3" 216]) combined for 1.5 tackles. Lucas is coming off knee surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2011 season. Dowdy has played one snap in two years, and Pittman played in six games as a true freshman last fall. They need to step up and produce more in 2012 because filling Cole and Manning's shoes are going to be very tough.
They do return experience in key areas of the team. They won 8 a year ago, but can they do it again in 2012? We're going to find out on August 31st when they go to Atlanta to face Tennessee. That's where we're going to get some questions answered about the 2012 NC State Wolfpack. Unless NC State has a disastrous season, Tom O'Brien will be back in 2013. My prediction for the Wolfpack in 2012 is 8-4.
In Part 6, we're going to talk a hated CANES rival that we haven't faced in the regular season since 1990 and that's the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
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