Report Card and Game Balls vs NC State

What can you say about yesterday? In the 1st quarter, we were clicking on all cylinders, however, late in the quarter, when we had a chance to put the Wolfpack away, we didn't do that, and for the rest of the game, we made more interesting than necessary. At the end of the day, though, we got the win, which is the most important. We're 4-1 (3-0 in the ACC), and getting ready for a trip to Chicago on Saturday Night vs Notre Dame on NBC. 

The Report Card for yesterday's game:

Offense: B-: The down side is that we only had 85 yards rushing yesterday on 32 carries as a team. Against a great team, numbers like that won't win many games. The up side, we had 651 yards of Total Offense (566 of those were in the air from Stephen Morris, who set a ACC record to boot in this game). Only one penalty on the O (False Start on Jeremy). We didn't finish drives strong in the middle of the game. We had 3 three and outs, and some 4 and outs. We did get the GW from Stephen on the 3rd and 11 play to Phillip. Need more consistency here and finish drives strong. We didn't take advantage of the short fields the D gave us, and to be a great team, we need to take advantage of those situations. 

Defense: C-: I liked the fact that we forced 6 turnovers (4 fumbles and 2 picks). What I didn't like was the fact that we allowed 664 yards of total offense (224 of those rushing, including 120 from Creecy alone on 19 carries). They need to stiffen up more in that area. I liked that we did sack Glennon twice, but didn't like the fact that we allowed him to go for 440 yards passing and 4 TDs. This area needs to get better and be consistent for 4 quarters. They did step up when it was needed though. 

Special Teams: C-: Three missed FGs by Jake, left 9 points on the field there, that could have cost us big time, against a great team, that'll come back to bite us. However, Dalton Botts had another solid game in the Punting area for us. Two huge punts inside the 5. They started their drives from an average of their own 20, while we started ours from an average of our own 32. On kickoffs, we were beginning drives from our own 25. The kicking game almost cost us a win yesterday. This area, especially with Jake, needs to shake this tough performance off because we're going to need him in big spots later in the year. 

Now to Game Balls. This week, I'm giving out 5 game balls:

1. Stephen Morris: 26-49, 566 yards (ACC record), 5 TDs, 1 INT. Simply phenomenal on that GW TD play. 
2. Phillip Dorsett: 7 receptions, 191 yards 2 TDs (including GW) 226 all-purpose yards.
3. Rashawn Scott: 6 receptions, 180 yards 2 TDs
4. Eddie Johnson: 7 tackles (1 TFL), 1 sack, 2 Forced Fumbles, 1 pass broken up
5. Dalton Botts: 2 big punts pinning NC State inside the 5, 0 TBs, 4 punts inside the 20

In closing, there were many mistakes made yesterday and points were left on the field. If we're going to take that next step, we have to take advantage of short fields we're given and we have to finish drives strong with TDs, not FGs. The question is which CANES team comes to Chicago on Saturday Night? The one that was dominant in the 1st quarter? or the one that was going through the motions for most of the game? If the latter shows up, it will be ugly in Chicago. If the former shows up, we win handily. 

NC State Preview

Its gameday at Sun Life Stadium as this afternoon, the CANES will take on the NC State Wolfpack at Noon. Both teams are 3-1, however, this will be the conference opener for NC State, while for the CANES, this will be their 3rd conference game of the season. 

Let's look at both teams by the numbers: 

(Note: National rankings in parenthesis)

Rushing vs Rush D
NC State 145.5 ypg (83rd) vs CANES 226 ypg allowed (109th)
CANES 159 ypg (T-67 {WVU} vs NC State 119 ypg allowed (35th)

Passing vs Pass D
NC State 245.5 ypg (53rd) vs CANES 226.25 ypg allowed (65th)
CANES 269 ypg (37th) vs NC State 206.75 ypg allowed (40th)

Total O vs Total D
NC State 391 ypg (76th) vs CANES 452.25 ypg allowed (98th)
CANES 428 ypg (50th) vs NC State 325.75 ypg allowed (30th)

Scoring O vs Scoring D

NC State 28.5 ppg (T-63rd {Michigan}) vs. CANES 32.5 ppg allowed (T-95th {FAU})
CANES 33.5 ppg (T-46th {L'Ville}) vs NC State 15.75 ppg allowed (27th)

TFLs allowed vs TFLs
NC State 7.75 TFLs allowed (T-111th {SC, UCLA}) vs CANES 6 TFLs pg (T-53rd {K-State, Duke, Minnesota, UCF, Wake})
CANES 4.5 TFLs allowed (T-31st {Minnesota, L'Ville}) vs NC State 8.5 TFLs pg (T-8th {UConn, BYU, LSU, Cincinnati})

Sacks Allowed vs Sacks 
NC State 3.5 spg allowed (T-113th {New Mexico State}) vs CANES 1.25 spg (T-94th {TN, UF, Miss. State, Wyoming, Miami (OH), Iowa})
CANES 1.5 spg allowed (T-42nd {UGa, Cuse, Cincinnati, Clemson, WMU, UVa, Akron, EMU, Fresno, Wyoming, Iowa}) vs NC State 2.75 spg (T-23rd {Bama, WKU, Fresno, Minnesota, Utah, Utah State, Toledo, WMU})

3rd Down O vs 3rd Down D
NC State 30-68 44.1% (47th) vs CANES 27-57 47.3% (105th)
CANES 31-61 50.8% (20th) vs NC State 13-51 25.5% (12th)

Turnover Margin
NC State +3
CANES -2

When you see the video of the TN game in the opener you can see that if we give Morris time to throw, he will torch that NC State secondary like TN did in Atlanta. We have faster and better receivers than TN does. You'll notice the pressure their defense puts on Glennon. One of the keys today will be to pressure Glennon and make him uncomfortable in the pocket. The D needs to build off the win @GT and continue to get better. 

Another key to this game will be to get Duke going and need another solid game out of Mike James. The receivers are the question, how much will they step up in the absence of Malcolm Lewis? We need to get the TEs going in this game today. 

I think in the end, this game will be close for a half, but in the 2nd half, I think the CANES will be too much and just too many weapons for NC State to overcome. 

My prediction: CANES 35 NC State 17

Part 5 of 12 part CANE 2012 opponent series

In part 5 of the 12 part 2012 CANE opponent series, we'll preview the 2012 North Carolina State Wolfpack. They are led by Tom O'Brien who will be entering his 6th season in Raleigh. They went 8-5 last year finishing 4th in the Atlantic Division of the ACC and winning the Belk Bowl over Louisville.

In 2012, the expectations are higher in Raleigh. In past seasons, its been slow starts and strong finishes, another slow start this year and the heat will be Tommy O again. Anyway, let's look at each unit.

Offensively, it starts with QB Graduate student Mike Glennon, who in 2011, ran 56% of the time on standard downs. They need to see more from him in the passing game in 2012 because last season, the running was non-existent. They were 115th in Rushing; and their two primary running backs, Senior James Washington (6' 195) and RS Sophomore Tony Creecy (6' 210), combined for 25 carries per game but only averaged 3.8 yards per carry. However, vs Georgia Tech, they rushed for 208 yards (6.5 per carry) in a losing effort, but just 3.6 per carry against everyone else. If they're going to reach bigger heights in 2012, the running game needs to step it up. Nobody knows how good Glennon is going to be for them. In 2011, when you include sacks, he averaged just 5.9 yards per pass attempt and threw 12 picks, but also had a 63% completion rate and 31 TD passes. He had some good games (253 yards, 7.8 per attempt) and 3 TDs vs. Clemson, (264 yards, 7.6 per attempt) and 3 TDs vs. Louisville in the Belk Bowl victory. However, he did what the staff asked him to do. In 2012, if they tell him to go deep, he won't have T.J. Graham to go anymore (gone to the NFL with the Buffalo Bills). However, he will have Senior Tobias Palmer to go to. In 2011, Graham and Palmer combined to average 15.1 yards per catch. They're going to need a another deep threat to complement Palmer in 2012. If they ask again for him to go short or intermediate, he won't have Jay Smith or Steven Howard to go anymore (both gone to graduation). Both Smith and Howard averaged 9.1 yards per catch, while Washington and Creecy were targeted 6.6 times per game on passes that almost never actually went anywhere. Washington and Creecy are going to have to step up this year in the short to intermediate passing game with Smith and Howard gone.

A key player that will have to step up is Sophomore Mustafa Greene. He missed all of last season with a foot injury and was out of their Spring Practice due to legal issues. The good news is that they return six O-Linemen from 2011. However, the key for their success is how well their line protects Glennon and how good is his decision making in the pocket.

Defensively, they are pretty good, but especially so, when it came to going after the ball. How well? So well that only Oklahoma State and Cincinnati went after the ball better than them in this area. They forced 19 fumbles, picked off 27 passes, and broke up 35 more. This is a very good defense and aggressive too. They shut down the Clemson running game, they held their arch rival North Carolina to 165 total yards, and they made life miserable for former CANE commit, and later went to Louisville, QB Teddy Bridgewater. They were knocking him down all night long and forcing him to throw sooner than he wanted to.

In 2012, they have to replace three key players from their defense. who made at least 9.5 tackles for loss: LBs Terrell Manning (14.5, with four forced fumbles and eight passes defended, 5th round pick by the Green Bay Packers) and Audie Cole (13.5, with four more forced fumbles and four passes defended, 7th round pick by the Minnesota Vikings) and DT Markus Kuhn (9.5, 7th round pick by the NY Giants). You add LB Dwayne Maddox (6.5) and DT J.R. Sweezy (4.0, 7th round pick by the Seattle Seahawks), and you're looking at some holes that have to be filled pretty quickly. However, on the other hand, they do return seven players who had at least 3.0 TFLs in 2011 and could produce at a similar level, if not exceed it in 2012 with more opportunities. Among the returnees are three interesting ends (RS Sophomore Art Norman [6'1" 242], RS Junior Darryl Cato-Bishop [6'4" 278], and Senior Brian Slay [6'3" 274]) who combined for 14.5 sacks in 2011.

Where they are strongest on D is in their secondary. They return a lot of key guys here and if their front seven generate any good pass rush, this is going to be a unit few are going to want to throw to. They return Graduate student S Earl Wolff (6' 207), Senior Brandan Bishop (6'2" 205) and Junior Dontae Johnson (6'3" 205). In 2011, they combined for 9.5 TFLs 8 picks, 8 passes broken up, and 4 forced fumbles. Their best player coming back for them in their secondary is Junior CB David Amerson (6'3" 194). He's possibly the best CB in the country. He picked off 13 passes last year and broke up 5 more); and he almost certainly won't match that total this year, if he does, he'll easily win the Thrope. Some compare him to Ed Reed when he was at the U. He averaged 15.8 yards per return and took two picks back for TDs. As good as Amerson and the secondary is, they are going to have to fill a lot of voids here on D. They lose 5 of their front 7 from 2011 and their top backup Junior D.J. Green (6'4" 220), is suspended for the entire 2012 season because he failed a drug test. You don't replace four key players who combined for 205.0 tackles in 2011, that's 30 percent of their total. To put it in perspective, their three players who were first-stringers on their Spring depth chart and played in their spring game (RS Junior Rickey Dowdy (6'2" 240), Graduate Student Sterling Lucas (6'2" 231), Sophomore Brandon Pittman [6'3" 216]) combined for 1.5 tackles. Lucas is coming off knee surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2011 season. Dowdy has played one snap in two years, and Pittman played in six games as a true freshman last fall. They need to step up and produce more in 2012 because filling Cole and Manning's shoes are going to be very tough.

They do return experience in key areas of the team. They won 8 a year ago, but can they do it again in 2012? We're going to find out on August 31st when they go to Atlanta to face Tennessee. That's where we're going to get some questions answered about the 2012 NC State Wolfpack. Unless NC State has a disastrous season, Tom O'Brien will be back in 2013. My prediction for the Wolfpack in 2012 is 8-4.

In Part 6, we're going to talk a hated CANES rival that we haven't faced in the regular season since 1990 and that's the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.