NSD Predictions for Uncommitted CANE targets

Well, we are on the eve of National Signing Day and this past weekend we took some major hits. The biggest one being last night when Florida flipped RB Jordan Scarlett, the one recruit we could not afford to lose.

Anyway, here's who I think some uncommitted targets that we're still after end up:

CB Rashad Fenton (Carol City) - We came in the game late, but too late, according to Fenton and his people. The contenders are Florida, South Carolina, and Louisville. 

Prediction: South Carolina

ATH Marcus Lewis (Washington, DC Gonzaga) - Late last night, Lewis said he would delay his decision until early evening tomorrow because now FSU and Texas came into the game. That's not a good sign especially to have FSU in the mix. You know Jimbo will do anything to stick it to UM any way possible and this looks like a case of that here

Prediction: Florida State 

DT Kevin Scott (Los Angeles, CA Bishop Mora Salesian) - With Ole Miss out of it when they picked up Ross Donelly from TX last night. So it's between SC and us. This is one in play here, now that Rasheem Green is going to SC. This is one Golden, D, and Jethro personally have been on for a while. This is one we absolutely MUST have in this class. However, most of the indications believe Scott will end up staying on the West Coast. 

Prediction: SC

RB Dexter Williams (Winter Garden West Orange) - With Scarlett now at Florida, getting Williams in this class now becomes a MAJOR priority. With Louisville out of it, its really between Notre Dame (who has really made a push late), and us. I think in the end, Williams will not be in this class and we will have whiffed on the two prized backs in this class. 

Prediction: Notre Dame

WR Terrell Chatman (Baton Rouge, LA Central) - With Scarlett flipping to UF last night, this would be another devastating hit, if Chatman flips. Now, TCU is now the leader if he does flip, but the hat is making a push late to keep him home. I think he'll flip and we let another stud get away. 

Prediction: TCU

OT Tyree St. Louis (Bradenton IMG Academy) - Been committed since last year. Yes, he's still committed to us, but what's more concerning is that Florida has been making a strong play late in the game to get him to flip to UF. If I'm Kehoe, who has been on this kid during the process, I'm very livid that there's a chance this kid bolts for Gainesville, and those in the Hecht, it would be yet another hit if St. Louis bolts. In the end, I think we keep him.

Prediction: CANES

QB/ATH Torrance Gibson (American Heritage) - We made a push late to get him. An Ohio State commit for a while now. But realistically, if there's a flip to be made here, its going to be between LSU and Auburn. In the end, though, I can't see it happening

Prediction: Ohio State

QB Lamar Jackson (Boynton Beach) - A Louisville commit. Florida made a push here, as well as us, but in the end, look for him to stay put with commitment.

Prediction: Louisville

QB Evan Shirreffs (Jefferson, GA) - Consider the other schools that have recruited him (Georgetown, Brown, Columbia, and VMI), Coley has been recruiting this kid for a while now. In the end, look for him to end up in Coral Gables.

Prediction: CANES

WR Antonio Callaway (BTW) - Florida has been making a push late as well as FSU. But in the end, I think we'll end up with him

Prediction: CANES 

DT Kendrick Norton (Jacksonville Trinity Christian) - You figure with Scott likely not coming here, getting Norton becomes a MUST. We're the leaders to get him. Auburn is making a strong push in the end here. With Jethro recruiting him, there will be very glum faces in the Hecht Center if we were to strike out on Norton as well, with Green off the board and Scott likely off the board. Not getting another DT in this class would be completely devastating, especially when you consider after next season, it's going to be extremely thin there on the interior of the DL. Getting Norton is a MUST.

Prediction: CANES

DE Shelton Johnson (Delray Beach Atlantic) - Right now, FSU is the favorites for him. We're making a push here. But when you consider that when he was sick, the FSU coaches came down to visit him at home. That tells me a lot on where I think he'll end up and it sadly, won't be here.

Prediction: Florida State

DE Austrian Robinson (Pawling, NY Trinity Pawling School) - Maryland is the leader. Ole Miss is in the mix there. Jethro has been on this kid and made an OV here back on January 23rd and back on Friday, Jethro and D made an in-home visit to him. However, in the end, it won't be enough.

Prediction: Ole Miss

CB Sheldrick Redwine (Killian) - A Louisville commit. However, there's a good chance he flips here. Its been us and Auburn for that. I have to believe in the end, this is one to go our way.

Prediction: CANES

We'll see it all plays out tomorrow, but its realistically not looking very good right now. I want to see the interview on ESPNU with Al and look at the body language and the look on his face. That will be a tell tale sign of how this class rates. 

Report Card for game vs Notre Dame (Chicago)

Well, last night's game, on the first possession, we had two golden opportunities to really set the tone in this game, but didn't take advantage at that point and you could tell from there that the air just went out of us from that point on. Another chance we had late in the half to cut the ND lead to 7 was missed when Jake missed a FG that didn't have a chance from the start. In the 2nd half, when we needed a stop on the 1st possession by ND, it didn't happen, they scored and from that point, they dominated in the 2nd half and we had no answer for them at all. Tip your cap to the Irish, they just kicked our butts in the 2nd half.

Here's the ugly report card for last night's game

Offense: D- : Only 285 yards of total offense and of that, just 84 yards rushing. (Duke 22 yards on 8 carries, MJ 28 yards on 6 carries). The dropsie disease was very much in evidence last night, especially on the first possession, two drops by Phillip that would have been 6 for us. Yes, Morris was 18-35 for 201, but after he was harassed and hurried in this game, really from the 2nd quarter on. Morris was hurried 5 times last night and the O-Line did not adjust to that at all. The O-Line didn't allow a sack which was good, but the ND front 7 really took it to our O-Line in this game. Also, didn't help when Stephen's TD was called back by Jonny's holding penalty on the next possession after the two drops by Phillip on the first one. Jonny killed us with two penalties on that drive. Poor performance last night all around here. You will not win games against Top 10 opponents when you have just 84 yards rushing.

Defense: F : Here are the ugly numbers allowed. Total offense by ND: 587. Of that 587 yards allowed, 376 of those yards were on the ground. We allow two of their rushers to go over 115 yards rushing (Atkinson III 123 on 10 carries 1 TD, and Wood 118 on 18 carries 2 TDs). We even allowed McDaniel to score a late TD. We did try to blitz last night but to little or no avail. Just 1 QB Hurry all night (Bush). The penalties here were just as bad. The personal foul on EJ on the 1st drive kept a ND drive where they ultimately scored. Later, an offside penalty on Corey on ND's first drive of the 2nd half, kept a scoring drive for them alive and they ultimately got 7 there and for all intents, ball game over at 20-3. Complete disaster all around by the D. They allowed ND to get on all their possessions in the 2nd half 4 TDs. On ND's 2nd possession of the 2nd half, they went to the running game and we could not stop it at all and they knew it was coming. Their O-Line just dominated our front 7 last night. We allowed 34 first downs to ND last night. Completely inexcusable.

Special Teams: D- : Gabriel's BS roughing the kicker call on 1st punt by ND, kept their drive alive and they ultimately got 7 from it. Later at 13-3 ND, Tyrone gets called for an illegal block in the back that pushes us back from a field position standpoint. ND started their drives from an average of their own 18 while we started our drives from an average of our own 28. Usually when you win the field position battle, you usually get the win. Last night was certainly not the case at all. Jake misses a key FG that would have cut the ND lead at Half to 7. Botts did have a TB in this game, but three of his punts were inside the 20. Overall, very poor performance by the Special Teams.

In closing, we have to bounce back from this and forget this game. This game is over and the next focus needs to be on Carolina, which had an impressive win over VT yesterday. We're home for the next three games, and it'll be good to get back to Sun Life and hopefully back on the winning track.

Notre Dame Preview

After 22 years, the Miami Hurricanes will be playing Notre Dame in the regular season tonight at Soldier Field in Chicago. Gametime is 7:30 on NBC.

Notre Dame's Defense is very good. They are 3rd in the country in Scoring Defense, 9th in Pass Efficiency Defense, 15th in Total Defense, 19th vs the Pass, and 29th vs the Run. There are few matchups to watch in this game tonight.

Duke and Mike James vs the Notre Dame front 7, especially LB Manti Te'o. I'm going to look for at least 4-5 yards on 1st downs. Their Defense in those situations is 20th in the country, allowing 16.75 per game. ND's 3rd Down Defense is horrible. They are 72nd in the country in that department, allowing opponents to convert almost 40% of the time (39.66% to be exact), compared to ours, which is 94th with opponents converting almost 45% of the time (44.93% to be exact).

Ball protection is going to be vital in this ball game tonight because ND is 3rd in the country in turnover margin (2.25 per game or a +9). Under no circumstances can we turn the ball over because that's going to be asking for trouble. Also, protecting Stephen Morris is going to be critical because the ND Defense is 9th in the nation in Sacks averaging 3.5 per game. A matchup that I'm going to be watching in this game is LT Malcolm Bunche vs RDE of Notre Dame Stephon Tuitt. Tuitt is T-2nd in the nation in sacks per game with 1.5. Bunche needs to neutralize Tuitt and protect Morris' blind side. The matchup I want to also watch here is WR Rashawn Scott vs ND CB Bennett Jackson. I wouldn't be surprised if he's switches to go up against Dorsett. A matchup I like is Dorsett vs their other CB Russell who's very suspect. I think that's a matchup we can exploit all night.

The key to this game will be the Notre Dame Offense vs the CANE Defense. Can the CANE D step up and have a solid game for 4 quarters. We have to stop Riddick and Atkinson III. Also, another matchup to watch in this game tonight is the ND TE Eifert vs the CANE LBs (Corneilus/Paul, EJ, and Denzel). We have to not make Eifert a factor in this game because if he is, it's going to be a long night because that will open up the running game even more.

In the end, it'll be close, it'll come down to a couple of plays and who makes them.  I think in the end, we'll make just enough plays to win this game and leave Chi-town with a big time signature W on the road.

My prediction: CANES 31 Notre Dame 27

Report Card and Game Balls vs NC State

What can you say about yesterday? In the 1st quarter, we were clicking on all cylinders, however, late in the quarter, when we had a chance to put the Wolfpack away, we didn't do that, and for the rest of the game, we made more interesting than necessary. At the end of the day, though, we got the win, which is the most important. We're 4-1 (3-0 in the ACC), and getting ready for a trip to Chicago on Saturday Night vs Notre Dame on NBC. 

The Report Card for yesterday's game:

Offense: B-: The down side is that we only had 85 yards rushing yesterday on 32 carries as a team. Against a great team, numbers like that won't win many games. The up side, we had 651 yards of Total Offense (566 of those were in the air from Stephen Morris, who set a ACC record to boot in this game). Only one penalty on the O (False Start on Jeremy). We didn't finish drives strong in the middle of the game. We had 3 three and outs, and some 4 and outs. We did get the GW from Stephen on the 3rd and 11 play to Phillip. Need more consistency here and finish drives strong. We didn't take advantage of the short fields the D gave us, and to be a great team, we need to take advantage of those situations. 

Defense: C-: I liked the fact that we forced 6 turnovers (4 fumbles and 2 picks). What I didn't like was the fact that we allowed 664 yards of total offense (224 of those rushing, including 120 from Creecy alone on 19 carries). They need to stiffen up more in that area. I liked that we did sack Glennon twice, but didn't like the fact that we allowed him to go for 440 yards passing and 4 TDs. This area needs to get better and be consistent for 4 quarters. They did step up when it was needed though. 

Special Teams: C-: Three missed FGs by Jake, left 9 points on the field there, that could have cost us big time, against a great team, that'll come back to bite us. However, Dalton Botts had another solid game in the Punting area for us. Two huge punts inside the 5. They started their drives from an average of their own 20, while we started ours from an average of our own 32. On kickoffs, we were beginning drives from our own 25. The kicking game almost cost us a win yesterday. This area, especially with Jake, needs to shake this tough performance off because we're going to need him in big spots later in the year. 

Now to Game Balls. This week, I'm giving out 5 game balls:

1. Stephen Morris: 26-49, 566 yards (ACC record), 5 TDs, 1 INT. Simply phenomenal on that GW TD play. 
2. Phillip Dorsett: 7 receptions, 191 yards 2 TDs (including GW) 226 all-purpose yards.
3. Rashawn Scott: 6 receptions, 180 yards 2 TDs
4. Eddie Johnson: 7 tackles (1 TFL), 1 sack, 2 Forced Fumbles, 1 pass broken up
5. Dalton Botts: 2 big punts pinning NC State inside the 5, 0 TBs, 4 punts inside the 20

In closing, there were many mistakes made yesterday and points were left on the field. If we're going to take that next step, we have to take advantage of short fields we're given and we have to finish drives strong with TDs, not FGs. The question is which CANES team comes to Chicago on Saturday Night? The one that was dominant in the 1st quarter? or the one that was going through the motions for most of the game? If the latter shows up, it will be ugly in Chicago. If the former shows up, we win handily. 

Part 6 of 12 part CANE 2012 opponent series

In part 6 of the series, we're going to preview the 2012 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. They are led by Brian Kelly, who will be entering his 3rd season in South Bend. They finished 8-5 in 2011, losing to Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl.

Think about this fact for a second. Yes, Notre Dame went 8-5, and all those losses were by 14 points or less. If it weren't for killer turnovers, they could have easily been playing for the BCS title in New Orleans instead of LSU or Alabama.

In the 2011 season opener vs USF, they they dominated the Bulls by 254 yards, however, 3 killer red zone turnovers including a fumble returned 96 yards for a touchdown, would give the victory to the Bulls 23-20. The following week in Ann Arbor,  they had a 24-7 lead in the 3rd quarter, but once again, not protecting the ball in the red zone, would cost the Irish a 35-31 loss. When they hosted USC, Notre Dame was on a game-tying drive in the fourth quarter,, however, their inability to have good ball protection, and a killer pick 6 would once again do the Irish in as SC would go on to beat them 31-17. In Orlando (Champs Sports Bowl) vs. FSU, the Irish D would score a TD and held the 'Noles to 290 total yards. However, it would be, you got it, their inability to protect the football in key moments that would do the Irish in. They had two killer turnovers inside FSU’s 30 and the Seminoles went on to win 18-14.

As is the case with Notre Dame every year, their schedule is murder. They play 3 top 10 teams, 2 additional top 20 teams, and 8 teams that went to a bowl last year. (USC and the CANES also would have gone to a bowl if they were eligible, in the latter's case, the bowl ban was self-imposed.)

Now, let's take a look at the 2012 edition of the Irish:
Offensively,  if they don't have a solid QB behind C, they're not going very far. In 2011, there was a battle between Dayne Crist and Tommy Rees. Crist was named the starter for the opener against USF. However, when he struggled, he was benched in favor of Rees, who would be the starter for the rest of the year. Crist is now at Kansas, which is now coached by former Irish coach Charlie Weis. Rees was very inconsistent in 2011, completed 65.5% of his passes. He had 20 TDs, but also 14 picks and lost 5 fumbles. He was always shaky throughout the 2011 season. Another bonehead move by Rees,  May, he gets busted for slugging a cop, that's being stupid, ok. Kelly did the right thing by suspending Rees for the Irish's September 1st opener in Dublin, Ireland against Navy.

The starter for that Navy game hasn’t been determined but it will come down to junior Andrew Hendrix (6'2" 220), RS freshman Everett Golson (6' 185), or true freshman Gunner Kiel (6'4" 210). Hendrix was their back-up for most of last year, after Kelly demoted Crist to third string. He threw a TD, but also had 2 picks in limited action in 2011. Where he could hurt opponents is with his legs. In 2011, did you know, that he was their third leading rusher despite having just 25 carries. Golson was pretty good in their spring game. Kiel was the highest recruited quarterback last year, and had offers from USC, Oklahoma, LSU, Alabama and the rest of the big schools. He originally committed to his home state university of Indiana, but changed his mind and chose Notre Dame. With all that talent coming in, its going to be pretty tough for Rees to win back his job.

You don't replace a stud like Michael Floyd who was their all-time leader in receptions, and a high pick when he went to Arizona in April. In 2011, he had 100 receptions for 1,147 yards and 9 TDs, and had another on the ground.  They do get back Senior TE (Maxwell Award candidate) Tyler Eifert (6'6" 251), who is one of the best TEs in the country. Last year, he had 63 receptions for 803 yards, and 5 TDs. Their other top receivers that are back are Junior T.J. Jones (5'11" 190), Seniors Theo Riddick (now a running back, 5'11" 199), John Goodman (6'3" 207), and Robby Toma (5'9" 185). However, none of those three had more than 38 catches last year, or averaged more than 6 yards per catch. We'll see a lot of Freshmen DaVaris Daniels (6'2" 190) and Davonte Neal in 2012. This area has many questions that need to be answered and soon.

The same cannot be said about their running game. In 2011, Junior Cierre Wood (6' 215) was their leading rusher. He's a preseason candidate for the Maxwell award, especially after he had 217 carries for 1,107 yards, and 9 TDs. They do lose their top backup Jonas Gray to graduation. He had 12 TDs and 791 yards rushing in 2011. However, they do add a USC transfer in Amir Carlisle (5'10" 185), and should do nicely filling Gray's shoes. While at SC, he averaged more than 6 yards a carry. We'll see Riddick and Freshman George Atkinson III (6'1" 210) get the rock in 2012. Where Riddick will be able to help their offense is in the passing game. He had 38 catches last season. Atkinson is a guy that's a gamebreaker and can take one back to the house at any time. He's that good a player.

Their O-Line was one of the best units in the country in 2011. They do lose two starters to graduations, but they get back Senior OT Zach Martin (6'4" 304) and RS Senior C Braxton Cave (6'3" 304).

Now to their Defense,  they run a 3-4 system under co-DCs Bob Diaco and Kerry Cooks. They had the 15th ranked D in the nation in 2011. They were very good vs the run, but their Achilles heel was stopping the passing game of opponents, especially against the big plays.

They lost their stud DE Aaron Lynch who transferred to USF. That's not going to be an easy piece to replace, due to the fact, that he could rush the passer with rock solid consistency. They do get back  RS Sophomore NG Louis Nix III (6'3" 326) as well as RS Senior DE Kapron Lewis-Moore (6'4" 306) and Freshman Stephon Tuitt (6'6" 295). Their line shouldn’t take a step back if their pass rush gets better. It was nothing to write home about, even with Lynch there.

They return at LB all but one from 2011. The only one gone to graduation is Darrius Fleming. Make no mistake, its unquestionable leader there is Senior Manti Te’o (6'2" 255, and a Butkus candidate to be sure and will for sure go very high in next April's draft). They also have returning Sophomore Ishaq Williams (6'5" 255) who will make some noise in 2012. Also back are Junior Prince Shembo (6'2" 250), Senior Dan Fox (6'3" 240), Junior Danny Spond (6'2" 248), and Carlo Calabrese (6'1" 245). We'll see a lot of them in 2012. However, we won't see Calabrese in the first game, as he is also suspended for the Navy game.

The secondary took a big hit to graduation and must replace 3 starters from the 2011 team. They do have decent safeties in RS Senior Jamoris Slaughter (6' 200) and Senior Zeke Motta (6'2" 215). Their CBs, should be led by Juniors Bennett Jackson (6' 185), Lo Wood (5'10" 195), and RS Freshman Josh Atkinson (5'11" 185), however, those three will compete for just two starting spots in fall camp. They're going to have to step up and make plays because in 2011, the Irish only forced 8 fumbles and when you add the fact that their offense turned the ball over 29 times, that's a big deal when you're on the field playing Defense most of the time and giving opponents short fields to work with, you're not going to win a lot of games that way. Yes, ND was good on D, but until they can force more turnovers and give the O short fields to work with, not much change will happen in 2012.

Let's look at Special Teams:  RS Sophomore Kicker Kyle Brindza is back and he has a strong leg. In 2011, he dealt with the kickoffs, but in 2012, he will take over as the placekicker from David Ruffer (gone to graduation). They have a capable backup should Brindza struggle in Senior Nick Tausch. When he was a freshman, he was the kicker and hit 14 FGs in a row at one point. When he went down to an injury and lost his job to Ruffer, he never got it back. Keep an eye on this one throughout the season.

Senior Punter Ben Turk averaged over 40 yards a punt, and pinned 18 kicks inside the 20. However, when you look at their punt coverage, it was just terrible and his net yards suffered because of that.

As I said earlier about Atkinson III, this is a guy that can take one back to the house. In 2011, he made that point clear when he had two long touchdown returns. On the other hand, their punt return unit was awful, as they had only 48 punt return yards total in 13 yards, not going to win games with you have just 48 yards in punt returns for the season. To put that into perspective. Michael Floyd by himself, had a punt return of 41 yards. If you subtract that, they would have averaged 0.23 yards per punt return. New Mexico was last in the FBS at 1.33 yards a return.  Look for Riddick to handle punt returns in 2012. Hell, it can't get any worse.

Looking at ND's schedule, as usual, its murder. They have to go across the pond to play against a rival that has beaten them 3 of the last 5 years in Navy. On top of that, no BYE week after the Ireland trip as they host Purdue in their home opener the following week. They only played in a bowl game last year. Let's add a trip to East Lansing to take on Michigan St, just a top 15 team in the country. Then they have four games at home stand against Michigan, CANES (Soldier Field, Chicago), Stanford, and BYU. Then the big trip to Norman to take a team that just might win the whole thing this year in Oklahoma. This will be their first trip to Norman in 50 years. They do get to close their schedule with Pitt at home, then head to Chestnut Hill to face Boston College, then host Wake in their home finale before going to the Coliseum to face another team that might just win it all in 2012 in SC. Looking at that schedule, I can't see them winning 8-9 this year. Realistically, my prediction for the 2012 Notre Dame Fighting Irish is 7-5.

In Part 7 of the series, I will preview the 2012 North Carolina Tar Heels.