NSD Predictions for Uncommitted CANE targets

Well, we are on the eve of National Signing Day and this past weekend we took some major hits. The biggest one being last night when Florida flipped RB Jordan Scarlett, the one recruit we could not afford to lose.

Anyway, here's who I think some uncommitted targets that we're still after end up:

CB Rashad Fenton (Carol City) - We came in the game late, but too late, according to Fenton and his people. The contenders are Florida, South Carolina, and Louisville. 

Prediction: South Carolina

ATH Marcus Lewis (Washington, DC Gonzaga) - Late last night, Lewis said he would delay his decision until early evening tomorrow because now FSU and Texas came into the game. That's not a good sign especially to have FSU in the mix. You know Jimbo will do anything to stick it to UM any way possible and this looks like a case of that here

Prediction: Florida State 

DT Kevin Scott (Los Angeles, CA Bishop Mora Salesian) - With Ole Miss out of it when they picked up Ross Donelly from TX last night. So it's between SC and us. This is one in play here, now that Rasheem Green is going to SC. This is one Golden, D, and Jethro personally have been on for a while. This is one we absolutely MUST have in this class. However, most of the indications believe Scott will end up staying on the West Coast. 

Prediction: SC

RB Dexter Williams (Winter Garden West Orange) - With Scarlett now at Florida, getting Williams in this class now becomes a MAJOR priority. With Louisville out of it, its really between Notre Dame (who has really made a push late), and us. I think in the end, Williams will not be in this class and we will have whiffed on the two prized backs in this class. 

Prediction: Notre Dame

WR Terrell Chatman (Baton Rouge, LA Central) - With Scarlett flipping to UF last night, this would be another devastating hit, if Chatman flips. Now, TCU is now the leader if he does flip, but the hat is making a push late to keep him home. I think he'll flip and we let another stud get away. 

Prediction: TCU

OT Tyree St. Louis (Bradenton IMG Academy) - Been committed since last year. Yes, he's still committed to us, but what's more concerning is that Florida has been making a strong play late in the game to get him to flip to UF. If I'm Kehoe, who has been on this kid during the process, I'm very livid that there's a chance this kid bolts for Gainesville, and those in the Hecht, it would be yet another hit if St. Louis bolts. In the end, I think we keep him.

Prediction: CANES

QB/ATH Torrance Gibson (American Heritage) - We made a push late to get him. An Ohio State commit for a while now. But realistically, if there's a flip to be made here, its going to be between LSU and Auburn. In the end, though, I can't see it happening

Prediction: Ohio State

QB Lamar Jackson (Boynton Beach) - A Louisville commit. Florida made a push here, as well as us, but in the end, look for him to stay put with commitment.

Prediction: Louisville

QB Evan Shirreffs (Jefferson, GA) - Consider the other schools that have recruited him (Georgetown, Brown, Columbia, and VMI), Coley has been recruiting this kid for a while now. In the end, look for him to end up in Coral Gables.

Prediction: CANES

WR Antonio Callaway (BTW) - Florida has been making a push late as well as FSU. But in the end, I think we'll end up with him

Prediction: CANES 

DT Kendrick Norton (Jacksonville Trinity Christian) - You figure with Scott likely not coming here, getting Norton becomes a MUST. We're the leaders to get him. Auburn is making a strong push in the end here. With Jethro recruiting him, there will be very glum faces in the Hecht Center if we were to strike out on Norton as well, with Green off the board and Scott likely off the board. Not getting another DT in this class would be completely devastating, especially when you consider after next season, it's going to be extremely thin there on the interior of the DL. Getting Norton is a MUST.

Prediction: CANES

DE Shelton Johnson (Delray Beach Atlantic) - Right now, FSU is the favorites for him. We're making a push here. But when you consider that when he was sick, the FSU coaches came down to visit him at home. That tells me a lot on where I think he'll end up and it sadly, won't be here.

Prediction: Florida State

DE Austrian Robinson (Pawling, NY Trinity Pawling School) - Maryland is the leader. Ole Miss is in the mix there. Jethro has been on this kid and made an OV here back on January 23rd and back on Friday, Jethro and D made an in-home visit to him. However, in the end, it won't be enough.

Prediction: Ole Miss

CB Sheldrick Redwine (Killian) - A Louisville commit. However, there's a good chance he flips here. Its been us and Auburn for that. I have to believe in the end, this is one to go our way.

Prediction: CANES

We'll see it all plays out tomorrow, but its realistically not looking very good right now. I want to see the interview on ESPNU with Al and look at the body language and the look on his face. That will be a tell tale sign of how this class rates. 

Report Card and take on Louisville Loss.

My take on the loss with Report Card vs Louisville on 9/1/14

Part 1 of the 12 part 2014 Miami Hurricane Opponent Video Series - @Louisville 9/1

 

2014 Louisville Cardinals Football Preview

Today, I return with the 2014 edition of the 12 part opponent video series. In part 1, I’m going to talk a little about the Louisville Cardinals, our opponent on Labor Day Night on ESPN at 8 p.m. from Papa John’s Stadium in Louisville, KY.

Lets first look at their Talent:

You would think that Louisville dominated in South Florida recruiting for years and for the most part, they did, however, when you deeper here, especially the last five years, they pull a recruiting class ranked in the middle of the road anywhere from the 30s through the 50s But from 2009-2014, their classes were ranked an average of No. 43, again at the middle of the road. You would think under former boss Charlie Strong that it would be a hindrance, but it clearly wasn’t. In the Big East and later in the American Conference, they were at the top in recruiting; however, now being in the ACC, while their talent is 44^th nationally, they always seem to get the most out of their personnel. However, going into this season, they had some losses on both sides of the ball. In 2014, they’ll return just 53 percent of key offensive production stats and 56 percent of key defensive production. Both numbers are well below average in the ACC, which, as a conference, has the least returning total production of any power conference.

Next, I want to talk about the Coaching:

When you look at it, the timing for Strong to bolt for Austin was perfect. He did what he could winning consistently in the BE/American and going to the ACC might have taken some of the good things he did in building the Cardinals into a National power. Now, re-enter, in this case, In Bobby Petrino. This guy is a proven winner everywhere he’s gone. Look at what this man did at Arkansas in a top notch conference like the SEC and the opponents he faced every year in LSU, Bama, Auburn, etc. However, at WKU, he slipped a bit, in 2014, many people will give him a pass, however, and that won’t be the case next year.

Now, to their 2014 Schedule:

Welcome to the ACC, Louisville. You only have the toughest schedule in the league, based on opposing talent and coaching. With six road games, which include 4 on the road in 5 weeks, they’ll understand very quickly that this isn’t the Big East/American conference anymore.

They get us (CANES) as stated earlier on Labor Day night on ESPN. We have back 75 percent of our offense, while they will be adjusting to a new coach (Petrino) and the experience on defense isn’t all there.

As for the rest of the schedule, expect the Cards to bounce back and blast Murray in Week 2 off a short week, before having some tough road games. They should win most of them though.

In week 3, they go to Charlottesville to face Virginia. Mike London and his guys have been stockpiling the talent there for a few years now, some in Charlottesville are questioning the game day coaching there. This is a big game early for London and his crew, knowing he’s on the hot seat up there (which I’ll go more into in Part 11 of the series), I’ll go with the Cavs over the Cardinals in that one. It’s early and I’ll stick with UVa.

In week 4, they go to Miami, not to play the CANES, but play across town vs. FIU. This is a game Louisville should win handily and to boot, it’s a payback game for the Cards as well.

In week 5 at Wake Forest, they are 72^nd nationally in talent and they have a new coach to boot. This is a game Louisville should win easily.

In this scenario, I have Louisville at 3-2 heading to the Carrier Dome to play Syracuse on a Friday Night in Week 6, in what could be a potential trap game. While the Orange will be decided underdogs at home, Scott Shafer had a great first year in 2013 leading the Orange. With a huge showdown in Death Valley the following week, this could be trouble, that said, in a tough game, the Cardinals find a way to win in the Dome.

In Week 7, the trip to Death Valley will be no fun for Petrino and Co., Clemson takes advantage of the fact that the Cards are finishing up a tough stretch of 4 games in 5 weeks, and Clemson should win handily in this one. 

In Week 8, with NC State coming to Papa John’s stadium, the question will be how they mentally off a tough stretch of games on the road are. Petrino will have them ready to play and the crowd on their side as a 12^th man, Louisville gets it done vs. the Wolfpack. 

After the bye in Week 9, in Week 10, they only host the defending National Champions in FSU. If Teddy Bridgewater had come back for his senior year, this is a blockbuster matchup. But with Bridgewater and some key pieces from the 2013 team gone, this is a game FSU wins going away.

After another Bye in Week 11, in week 12, Louisville makes the trip to Chestnut Hill to take on BC. While the Eagles surprised some folks last year, this year for them, is in rebuild mode. After smarting from a beat down loss to the Noles, two weeks earlier, the Cards should roll in this one. Louisville should be 6-4, heading to its final bye week.

The Cardinals come out of the bye in week 14 with another road game, this time, against a top-10 recruiter in Notre Dame in South Bend. If there’s a game Louisville could realistically steal, this game is it. However, at the end of the day, have to go with the Irish at home in a close one.
The final game of the 2014 regular season is against Kentucky at Papa John’s Stadium. Usually, this game had been played early in the year, but this year, they close with the Wildcats. Louisville is too strong for the ‘Cats, which is about another 2-3 years away from being really good. Cards win handily here to finish 7-5 in Petrino’s first season back in Louisville.

My prediction on the Game vs. CANES:

I like us to win this game and get Al that signature road win we’ve been missing in his tenure in Coral Gables.

In Part 2 of the 2014 series, I will talk about the FAMU Rattlers, our opponent in the Home Opener on Sept 6^th at Sun Life Stadium.

Report Card vs Louisville (Russell Athletic Bowl - Orlando)

When the matchup first came out, we knew going in that this was a very good Louisville Team we would be facing in the Citrus Bowl. Defensively, this was a Top 10 Defense in the country we were going to be facing here. They won't beat themselves. I thought one of the keys going in was to try and force some mistakes

For all the storylines going in: Teddy vs UM. The QB we have in Morris vs the one we could have had if Golden had not told him to take a hike when he told he wasn't being promised the starting job like Randy did. We could have had Teddy, Eli, and a couple of others we let get away to Louisville.

What I saw last night was nothing like the Miami Hurricanes I used to know. What I saw in Louisville was the CANES of yesteryear when we would dominate every opponent and beat every opponent down.

The performance Teddy had last night was a microcosm of how this Defense has been a failure on Mark D'Onofrio's watch and why many people believe that Teddy will be possibly the #1 pick in May's NFL Draft. He went 35-45 447 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs. He surgically picked apart our secondary. If there was a bright spot with the D, its the fact that we held their running game to 107 yards total. The bad news was that we once again allowed over 500 yards total offense (551 to be exact). They scored on 8 of their 11 possessions. They were 8-14 on 3rd Downs, including 6-8 in the 2nd half (75%).

As for Louisville's D, they are the real deal. They swarmed, they pressured Stephen all night, they sacked him 4 times for a total loss of 39 yards. He did go 12-27 160 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs. We went three and out 5 times. Our offense was 0-for-11 on 3rd Downs,

I was very disappointed in the Offensive Line's lack of protection for Stephen. They looked lost, confused, and not knowing who to block at times. It was like a Chinese Fire Drill. Utterly disappointed in the O-Line, and that's on Kehoe, whom I've been one of his biggest supporters, but not last night.

Now to the Report Card:
Offense - F (174 yards total offense the whole night, and only 14 yards rushing)
Defense - F (554 yards total offense allowed, could not get stops on 3rd Downs, allowed Teddy to pick it apart all night).
Special Teams - D (Really, one of the few bright spots from Last night, our first points of the game was on Patty O's Punt downed at the 1, which leads to Deon's safety a few plays later. We only had their punter punt just once the whole night).

If you listen to Golden after the game, you can tell how disappointed he was on last night's performance. Listen to Golden's answer at the 6:14 mark. Here's what I take from it, there are going to be changes made in the off-season, make no mistake about it. Also, listen to his answer at the 10:50 mark on that.


He also mentioned there is no timetable for us to be back as a National Power. That to me is a little disturbing. As I said the other night, the #CANES are at a crossroads. Which way do we go from here? That's going to be one of the questions that MUST get answered between now and Spring Practice in March.

Win or Lose, I still stand behind the U.

CANE Bowl Opponent: Louisville

Its official, we will be facing the Louisville Cardinals in the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando on December 28th.

Here's a comparison of each opponent by the numbers: 

CANES Total O vs Louisville Total D

446.8 (39th) vs. 257.9 (2nd)

Louisville Total O vs CANES Total D

453.1 ypg (34th) vs. 415.8 (76th)

CANES Scoring O vs Louisville Scoring D

35.9 ppg (24th) vs 12.4 ppg (3rd)

Louisville Scoring O vs CANES Scoring D

35.1 ppg (29th) vs 26 ppg (58th)

CANES Rushing O vs Louisville Rushing D

172.5 ypg (63rd) vs. 86.3 ypg allowed (2nd)

Louisville Rushing O vs CANES Rushing D

150.2 ypg (80th) vs. 182.3 ypg allowed (81st)

CANES Pass O vs Louisville Pass D

274.3 ypg (29th) vs. 171.7 ypg allowed (8th)

Louisville Pass O vs CANES Pass D

302.9 ypg (18th) vs 233.4 ypg allowed (71st)

CANES 3rd Downs vs Louisville 3rd Down D

56-148 [38%](T-85th) vs. 46-161 [29%] (2nd)

Louisville 3rd Downs vs CANES 3rd Down D

90-161 [56%] (2nd) vs 75-184 [41%](75th)

CANES Pass Efficiency vs Louisville Pass Efficiency D

152.67 (20th) vs. 99.55 (5th)

Louisville Pass Efficiency vs CANES Pass Efficiency D

170.64 (4th) vs. 119.19 (34th)

CANES Sacks vs Louisville Sacks Allowed

28-173 [2.33 pg](T-39th) vs. 25-184 [2.08 pg allowed](T-67th)

Louisville Sacks vs CANES Sacks Allowed

39-271 [3.25 pg] (T-1st) vs 13-108 [1.08 pg allowed](T-14th)

CANES RZ O vs Louisville RZ D

43-52 [83%](T-59th) vs. 25-35 [71%](8th)

Louisville RZ O vs CANE RZ D

47-53 [89%](23rd) vs 20-37 [82%](T-51st)

CANES TFL vs Louisville TFL Allowed

59-243 [4.9 pg](109th) vs 70-287 [5.83 pg allowed](T-57th)

Louisville TFL vs CANES TFL Allowed

94-410 [7.8 pg](9th) vs. 57-236 [4.75 pg allowed](T-25th)

CANES KR vs Louisville KR D

51-1282 1 TD [25.14 ypr](8th) vs 59-1317 [22.32 ypr allowed](88th)

Louisville KR vs CANES KR D

26-603 1 TD [23.19 ypr](28th) vs 40-800 [20 ypr allowed](38th)

CANES PR vs Louisville PR D

27-305 1 TD [11.3 ypr](T-29th) vs. 13-15 [1.15 ypr allowed](2nd)

Louisville PR vs CANES PR D

27-206 1 TD [7.63 ypr](70th) vs. 16-196 [12.25 ypr allowed)(108th)

Net Punting

CANES 38.92 NET (24th)

Louisville 37.25 NET (52nd)

Turnovers Lost vs Turnovers Gained

CANES vs Louisville

21 TO's Lost (14 INTs, 7 Fumbles Lost)(T-68th) vs. 26 TO's Gained (16 Picks, 10 Fumbles Rec.)(T-19th)

Louisville vs CANES

10 TO's lost (4 INTs {2nd Fewest}, 6 Fumbles Lost)(2nd) vs. 27 TO's Gained (18 Picks, 9 Fumbles Rec.)(T-13th)

Turnover Margin

Louisville +16 {1.3 avg} (2nd)
CANES +6 {.5 avg} (T-29th)

1st Down O vs 1st Down D

CANES vs Louisville

233 yards total (T-88th) vs 169 yards allowed (Leads Nation)

Louisville vs CANES

276 yards total (40th) vs 259 yards allowed (T-77th)

Completion %

Louisville 276-394 (70%)(3rd)

CANES 214-357 (60%)(57th)

Time of Possession

Louisville {33:00 pg}(6th)
CANES {26:00 pg}(118th)

Bottom Line, when you break it down. This is a very very good Louisville Team we will be facing in the Citrus Bowl on December 28th. Defensively, this is a Top 10 Defense in the country we're going to be facing here. They won't beat themselves, so if we force some mistakes and looking at the numbers, they don't make many, we'd better take advantage because this is a team in Louisville that forces a lot of turnovers.

For all the storylines going in: Teddy vs UM. The QB we have in Morris vs the one we could have had if Golden had not told him to take a hike when he told he wasn't being promised the starting job like Randy did. We could have had Teddy, Eli, and a couple of others we let get away to Louisville.

Anyway, it's going to be a nice matchup here and we'll see what happens.