2015 Miami Hurricanes Opponent Preview - Week 11 (at UNC 11/14)

Miami Hurricanes 2015 Opponent Preview

Week 11

At North Carolina (November 14^th)

The 2015 Miami Hurricanes Opponent Preview continues with the preview of the North Carolina Tar Heels, who hosts the U on November 14^th up in Chapel Hill.

This is going to be a critical year for Larry Fedora up in Carolina as he starts his 4^th season up in Chapel Hill. The talent is there to win big, and the expectations to win big are very high. As much as he wins in the ACC (13), he’s also lost 11 games in the conference. For that reason alone, he hasn’t gotten the Heels up to the next level. Like the U, they are expecting a big year up there (i.e., win the Coastal and get to Charlotte). In each of his four years up there, Fedora's win total has dropped. They have Marquise Williams back running their offense. They added a National Championship coach in former Auburn coach Gene Chizik, who’s now their new Defensive Coordinator. Chizik will have a task of repairing a defense that was just downright terrible in 2014.  

Let’s talk about North Carolina’s Defense.

To emphasize how bad Carolina’s D was last year, consider this, and why Fedora brought Chizik in to run the D. They finished dead last in the ACC in every major category, and add this fact: Their D  set an ACC record (not a good one either) for points and yards allowed. Chizik brings in a base 4-3, and out goes the 4-2-5 scheme that they’ve used the last three years. The players there like it because it’s easy to understand how it works and executing it. Starting with the D-Line, they don’t have a dominant player up front. However, there is talent there, but young. Players to watch here are sophomores Nazair Jones and Dajaun Drennon, as well as freshmen Jeremiah Clarke and Jalen Dalton. The leader that is assuming control of the defense is Senior middle linebacker Jeff Schoettmer. He comes off a season in which he finished second on the team in tackles. They’ll also have back seven of their top eight defensive backs from 2014, which includes a star in the making in CB Brian Walker. However, for Chizik’s scheme to work properly, everyone on that D must step up and make plays, when you consider that they allowed an ACC-record 31 TD passes in 2014.

Let’s talk about North Carolina’s Offense

They have back 10 starters and several key reserves from last year. They’ll have some unusual continuity. Their top rushers in the backfield return, as well as their top receivers. The leader of their offense is Quarterback Marquise Williams. In 2014, he broke the single-season school record for total offense. He can beat you passing, but where he really can hurt you is with his legs (running). Their staff doesn’t want him to run as much in 2015. For this to work, their running backs and the improvement of a developing offensive line must come up big. They have backs who can hurt you in many ways. 

If they want to go both ways, they have T.J. Logan. If they want to go to the power game, they can go to Elijah Hood. If they want to go on the outside and break some big runs down the sidelines, they can use Romar Morris. 

As for their offensive line, the leader of that group is Senior RG Landon Turner. He’ll be joined by fellow third-year starter Jon Heck at RT. They are very strong on that side of the line. On the left side, they have back Sophomore Bentley Spain, who has really improved and has assumed the starting role at LT, and they expect big things out of him. 

Their receiving corps is very good and talented. Quinshad Davis, Mack Hollins, and Bug Howard all stand at least 6'4" and are very tall targets that can create mismatches for opposing corners. They have a big play threat in 5'10" Ryan Switzer. This kid is not only a deep threat, but one that can turn a short reception into huge yardage.  

Highlights of Ryan Switzer 2014 season 

Let’s talk about North Carolina’s Special Teams

If Switzer can return to 2013 form, when he led the nation in punt return average and tied an NCAA record with five punt returns for touchdowns, this will be a player that no punter wants to go his way on. Outside of that, there are much bigger issues here for the Heels. They will break in a new kicker and punter in 2015. The kicker’s job will be between Kickoff specialist Nick Weiler and redshirt freshman Freeman Jones. Whoever wins that job, will have to do better than last year when they missed all seven of their field-goal tries from beyond 30 yards. Did I mention that Carolina is also breaking in a new punter?

What to expect from North Carolina

Looking at them on tape, Williams is the real deal.  The fan base in Chapel Hill wants to start seeing results this year. They don’t have FSU, Clemson, or Louisville on the schedule. If Williams stays healthy and Chizik improves that defense, this will be a team that no one will want to face late in the year like The U does here.

Their 2015 Spring Game (Williams did not play in this game)

They talk about Carolina upcoming season. Some highlights of last year's game at Sun Life is in here.

This is from Carolina's Bowl Game last year vs Rutgers in Detroit. 

Our last trip up there two years ago when we were highly ranked (#10)

Highlights of last year's game where Duke went nuts on the Carolina D. 

In this game, it’s in Chapel Hill, the last visit we made there, it was a White Knuckle type of game, when we were highly ranked. Expect another tough ball game up there. However, I feel in the end, I believe The U will make enough plays to pull this one out and leave Chapel Hill with a hard fought win over the Tar Heels. 

Up Next: GT in the Home Finale

Part 9 of the 12 part 2014 Miami Hurricane Opponent Video Series - @Carolina 11/1

2014 North Carolina Football Preview

In Part 9 of the 2014 12 part opponent video series, I’m going to talk a little about the North Carolina Tar Heels, our opponent on Nov 1^st at Sun Life Stadium   

Lets first look at their Talent:

When you average 40.5 PPG in their last 7 games of 2013, its reason enough for QB Marquise Williams to come back. This guy is very very good, especially when you consider he’s a threat to run as well. All he did was lead the team in carries (111) and rushed for 536 yards and six touchdowns. He just happens to be a very good passer too. He had 1,698 yards, 15 TDs to just 6 picks. This team could win 10 easily. The biggest question will be the Defense. Can they step up and have a big year?  

Next, I want to talk about the Coaching:

When you look at what Larry Fedora’s team did in the 2^nd half of 2013, putting up 40.5 points a game, they became a team you didn’t want to play, because everything began to click for them This man in his 6 years of coaching (this will be year 7) has never had a losing record.
He’s only won 10 games once (2011 at Southern Miss going 12-2. This guy knows how to win.

Now, to their 2014 Schedule:

The Heels came off a 7-6 season, which included a Belk Bowl win over Cincinnati in Charlotte. There are high expectations in Chapel Hill this year. So, here’s the 2014 Tar Heels schedule and how I see their schedule play out:

In their opener, 8/30 vs. Liberty: W

In the past, its been the slow starts and strong finishes. Not in this game though. Carolina will be on fire in this one, and this is a game where you start to answer some questions, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Carolina BIG in this one.

In Week 2, 9/6 vs. San Diego State: W

They’re at home again, this time in a night game at home, and that place will be jumpin’. Look for a big game out of Williams, getting his yardage both in the air and on the ground. In this game, look for the O-Line to start to get a foothold here. They did lose C Russell Bodine to the NFL, so Fedora needs to find answers fast.  They’ll start coming in this one. Carolina comfortably here.




In week 3, 9/20 at East Carolina: W

East Carolina is tough and one a co-favorite to win the AAC, This matchup is very intriguing given the fact that the Pirates are at home. However, look for Fedora and his crew to have the Heels ready for this one. It’ll be close for about a half, maybe a little into the 3^rd quarter, but in the end, the Heels have too many weapons for the Pirates to overcome here. UNC wins comfortably over ECU.  should have his team ready to go. This game will be close but I think North Carolina has the roster to come out on top.

In week 4, 9/27 at Clemson: L

If this game were in Chapel Hill, it’d be a must watch. However, this is in Death Valley and while its still a must watch, Carolina doesn’t have the firepower to hang with Clemson in this one, especially on Defense.  Clemson hands the Heels its first loss of the season.

In week 5, 10/4 Virginia Tech: L

Is Carolina ready to win the Coastal this year? After this game, I predict the answer to be no. As good as Fedora, and he will have the Heels ready to play this one, its very dangerous to underestimate Frank Beamer and Bud Foster in big games like this. Foster’s Defense will have an answer for Williams. VT wins a close one on the road, and the Heels lose their 2^nd straight to drop them to a projected 3-2.

In Week 6 , 10/11 at Notre Dame: W

With the Irish having all the distractions about the cheating scandal up there, the stars are right for an upset here. With the Irish having FSU and Stanford, and Carolina being in the middle, everything is ripe for a Heels win, and they would want to get off a projected two game losing streak here. Carolina goes to South Bend and beats the Irish.

In Week 7, 10/18 Georgia Tech: W

GT makes the trip up to Chapel Hill to take on the Tar Heels, who could very well be a force to deal with in the Coastal this year and add to the fact, that the Heels will coming off a huge projected win up in South Bend the week before, there’s no way, the Heels lose this one. UNC wins this one handily to move them to a projected 5-2.

In Week 8, 10/25 at Virginia: W

This will be an easy win for the Tar Heels, when you add the fact that the Cavaliers will be such disarray, and Mike London’s seat on five-alarm fire, there’s no way the Heels lose this one. Carolina BIG over UVa as Williams should put up big numbers against a Cavalier defense that’s just absolutely awful. Virginia is still rebuilding and Carolina will be too focused to lose this game.
 
In Week 9, 11/1 at Miami (FL): L

this was very close last year and Miami found a way to win late vs. the Heels. Look for another close game here. In the end, expect the CANES to win this one.

In Week 10 BYE  


In Week 11, 11/15 vs. Pittsburgh: W

After losing a projected close game in Miami, look for Carolina to be very upset and take it out on the Panthers. Look for Williams to make some big plays early and often in this one and Pitt’s running game will be no factor here. Carolina bounces back with a HUGE win.

In Week 12, 11/20 at Duke: L 


On a Thursday Night, they go to Duke to take on the Blue Devils on ESPN. It’s a short week for the Tar Heels. Carolina wants that Victory Bell back and wants to erase the sting of the Blue Devils winning the Coastal on their field. As much as Williams wants to the chance to prove he's something special on the national stage, at the end of the day, Duke will be again a little too much for the Tar Heels. Duke gets the win over UNC.

In the season finale, 11/29 vs. NC State: W

It’s a rivalry game, and its at home, Fedora’s team will be ready to go, especially after a projected tough loss to Duke nine days earlier. The Wolfpack have a dual-threat quarterback in Jacoby Brissett, however, against a defense that’s ticked off after the projected Duke loss, and it being Senior Day in Chapel Hill, UNC has the better offense and too many weapons for the Pack to overcome in this one. Give the nod to the Tar Heels to finish a projected 8-4.

My prediction on the Game vs. CANES:

We were very fortunate to get out of Chapel Hill last year with a victory. We know that Carolina will come in looking for payback, and they have the weapons on O to beat us, so its imperative for our D to come up big in this one and I believe they will. I expect Duke to have a huge game here. In the end, we’ll once again find a way to win.

In Part 10 of the 2014 series, I will talk about the team that raised the last BCS title in history, the Florida State Seminoles, our opponent on November 15^th at Sun Life Stadium.

Report Card and Game Balls vs GT

Here's my report card and Game Balls to give out vs GT. 

My take on Saturday's win vs GT in the ACC opener is this. I felt we did well for the most part, however, the sloppiness was still there in this game. We turned it over 4 more times in this game and was a -1 in turnover margin. For the most part though, we found a way to win late. We did commit 7 penalties for 54 yards. Gotta clean that up some more. 

Offensively, we had 551 yards of total offense. 224 yards rushing and 324 passing. Duke had a huge game with 184 yards on 22 carries. Solid game out of Dallas with another 31 yards on 5 carries and 2 more TDs. Big day for Hurns in the receiving game with 108 yards on 4 catches and 1 TD. Solid games all around from Stacy here having 74 yards on 3 catches. Phillip and Clive had some good games as well with 66 and 28 yards receiving respectively and a TD each.  Few things that concerned me after this game. Same deal as last game, ball security is still an issue here. Duke loses another fumble, this time in our own side of the field, and it cost us 7. He needs to be better at protecting the football in key situations. Stephen threw 2 picks in this one, the fortunate thing here is that it didn't lead to GT points. Need to be better and clean up those silly mistakes. Of the 7 penalties on Saturday, 4 were on the offense and 2 of those penalties were false starts. The other 2 were holding. The OL did allow a sack in this game. Bottom line, we need to get the ME's fixed now that we're in ACC play. Overall, good performance, but could be better. Grade: B-

Defensively, we forced 3 more turnovers in this game, 2 picks, one being a pick six by LaDarius to seal the win and the other a fumble forced and recovered. Although we allowed 354 yards rushing, we didn't allow a 100 yard rushing game from an individual standpoint. In the 1st half, we allowed 221 yards rushing. In the 2nd half, we allowed 113 yards rushing. The rush defense, considering, who we were facing, did an ok job. However, we need to get the rush defense better fortified going forward now that we're in ACC play. We held the Yellow Jackets to 6-16 on 3rd down conversions, but only 2 three and outs. Another issue we'll have to get fixed is our 4th down defense. GT in those situations was 4-5. That has to be fixed because later in the year, they're going to be some close games we need to shore that up. We sacked their QB's twice. Of the 7 penalties we had in this game, 2 penalties were on the D (offsides call on Justin and the unsportsmanlike call on after the Pick 6. We held GT, who doesn't throw the ball that often to just 66 yards passing on 6-19. We did allow 4 rushing TDs in the game. The D came up big when it had to, but still, there were some ME's here as well that need to get fixed before the trip to Chapel Hill on the Thursday Night after the BYE week. Grade: C+

Special Teams wise, better game out of Matty here. Another solid return game out of Duke with 114 yards of KR's, and 133 yards of total KR/PR in this one. Solid game from Patty in the Punting game and on Kickoffs. The downer here was that we had two big X-Plays here called back by really stupid penalties (one of which cost us 6), In games where field position is going to be vital, these are mistakes we can't have. The Return Defense regressed a little bit here. GT had 135 yards of returns (115 on KR's, but just 20 on one PR). We started drives on Saturday on Average from our own 26 and GT started drives from their own 35. However, the matter we really need to fix is the one penalty and that was the offsides on Antonio on the Kickoff after our first score.   Very fixable here. Gotta be better on the return Defense and not giving opponents short fields to work with here. Those ME's need to be fixed now that we're in ACC play because those mistakes come back to bite you, especially, if the game is in the balance here. Overall, good, but there is some room for improvement, and I felt we did that here. Grade: C+

Now, to Game Balls. This week, I'm going to give out three game balls. 

1. Duke Johnson - 22 carries, 184 yards rushing, 4 KR's, 114 yards (298 all-purpose yards)
2. Shayon Green - 9 Tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL
3. Allen Hurns - 4 receptions, 108 yards, 1 TD

Overall, I felt we played well, we kept grinding and found a way to win late. That being said, there were still some ME's (Mental Errors), that still need to be fixed, namely the penalties and ball security, which are still issues that have to be fixed. Still a little bit too many of those penalties on O (4 to be exact), and the other 3 on D and STs. The ones that bother me the most were the 4 on O, specifically the 2 holding penalties. Those are drive killers right there. In a close game against a good opponent, those type of penalties can come back to bite you. Gotta be sure we correct those going forward now that we're beginning ACC play next Thursday Night @Carolina at 7:30 on ESPN. 5-0 is a good feeling right now, but we could still get better and cut the ME's out. Take care and GO CANES! 

2013 Miami Hurricanes 12 part Opponent series - Part 6 (@UNC - Oct 17th {Thursday Night})

Oct 17^th - @North Carolina (Thursday Night)

Well, we are halfway home in this opponent series. In Part 6, I’ll preview the 2013 North Carolina Tar Heels, whom we visit up in Chapel Hill on Oct 17^th, a Thursday Night game at 7:30 on ESPN.

Here’s what you need to know about the Tar Heels:

They are coached by Larry Fedora (Austin College '85), who enters his 2^nd season with the Tar Heels. He led them to an 8-4 season and won the Coastal, but they were ineligible for the ACC Championship game due to probation. He was hired in January of last year after four years at Southern Missi, where he went 34-19 in his tenure there. That includes a 12-2 finish and Conference USA championship in his final season in Hattiesburg. In Fedora's last two seasons with the Golden Eagles, they made unbelievable strides on Offense, Defense and, the most important of all, in the win column. Think about this, his first team in Carolina, seemed more poised and were more comfortable in his offense than he had in his final two years in Hattiesburg. Simply put, the Tar Heels are already ahead of schedule.

To put Fedora’s success in perspective, in 2010, his Golden Eagles team won eight games for the first time since 2006. His first two years there were nothing to write home about. However, in 2008, after a 2-6 start, they won their final 5 games to finish 7-6. That year, the offense came alive, and they broke a then school record for points with 398. The next year, they would score 428 points. IN 2010, they scored 479 points, and in Fedora’s final year, they scored 512 points.

That’s the main reason North Carolina brought Fedora in. When you look at the resume of this man, He was Mike Gundy’s OC at Oklahoma State from 2005-07, and they got better offensively each year he was there. The offense in Stillwater, struggled in 2005, finishing 96th nationally in scoring, the Cowboys finished in the top 10 in rushing yards and the top 20 in total offense in each of the following two seasons. The following year, they were one of two teams (Boise being the other) to average 200 yards per game both Rushing and Passing. Before his stint in Stillwater, he spent time in Gainesville on Ron Zook’s staff, with the final year (2004) being the OC and at Middle Tennessee State from 1999-2001 as offensive coordinator. His other FBS assistant experience were at Air Force (1997-98) and Baylor (1990-1996). Carolina was sending a message, they were going to compete for ACC titles and be a national power in Football again.

Let’s break down the North Carolina Tar Heels:

Offensively:  They lost their biggest weapon Giovani Bernard, who decided to forgo his final 2 years of eligibility and enter the NFL (Drafted in 2^nd Round by the Cincinnati Bengals). They do have nice pieces coming back, but having to fill Bernard’s shoes isn’t going to be easy. Its up to both Senior A.J. Blue (433 yards, 5.28 yards per carry) and Sophomore Romar Morris (386 yards, 5.59 yards per carry). They did ok in 2012 when given the chance to produce. If they want to have a solid starter, most likely it’ll be Blue that they lean on here. He did have a 100-yard game, when Bernard was out vs. Wake Forest. However, don’t be surprised if Fedora decides to go with a back by committee approach here between Blue, Morris, sophomore Travis Riley and true freshman T.J. Logan. Two big issues they need to get addressed:

·         UNC loses a star, in Gio Bernard and you don’t replace with just anyone.

·         They have to replace three starters on the O-Line (which I’ll talk about next)

How far their running game drops off, and there will be a drop off this year, will hinge on how quickly everyone steps up and produces in their new roles?

I want to get more in depth about the O-Line: In 2012, they had three Seniors there and they allowed the 9^th fewest sacks in the country with 11. However, in 2013, they must replace three starters there:

·         Jonathan Cooper at left guard (1^st Round pick by the Arizona Cardinals) – who was one of the best O-Lineman in the country

·         Travis Bond (7^th Round pick by the Minnesota Vikings) and Brennan Williams (3^rd Round pick by the Houston Texans) from the right side.

They do get back Senior left tackle James Hurst, who’s easily an all First Team ACC player, and Junior center Russell Bodine, who’s become more of the vocal leader on that line. To fill those huge shoes of the three Seniors they lost to Graduation/NFL Draft, they’ll look to Landon Turner, a sophomore, at RG, like they did in the final four games of last season because Williams got hurt, and RS Freshman Caleb Peterson, who will have to huge task of filling Cooper’s huge shoes at LG, barring any developments during fall camp. At RT, it’ll be up to Junior Nick Appel to step up. When you have an All-ACC First team player like Hurst next to you on the line, Peterson should be able to make the quick transition to a starting job and shine. When you add a leader like Bodine, that should make the interior of the O-Line very good.  If there’s a down side, and there is a down side here, it’s the fact that Peterson is raw. You have to realize that the right side of their line goes from extremely inexperienced to, at best, a minor concern. However, the other side of the coin there, is that the right side could be a major problem for an Offense looking to continue the momentum that last season had success on the ground. Also, while Carolina add four recruits in time for fall camp, which includes a JUCO transfer, they are lacking depth here and anyone goes down, it could be big trouble in Chapel Hill.

As for the passing game, that’s unchanged for the most part. They did lose only a nice possession receiver in Erik Highsmith (Signed as UFA by Minnesota Vikings), Overall, you can see they’re liking  in Fedora's system and they believe in it. They have experience back running his offense in Senior Bryn Renner, who’s entering his third season as the Heels' starter. He comes in as one of the best QB’s in the country. In 2012, Renner was outstanding, sans the midseason doldrums of ACC play,  and comes into his senior year, with a chance to break every major passing record in school history, which says a lot. He already has the top two single-season touchdown records, and had a career-high 28 in 2012, and also, set a new school record for total offense with 3,394 yards. He also is the most efficient QB in ACC history (154.59). This was evident in the Louisville game when he went head to head with Teddy Bridgewater in September, and he only got better as the season went on. In November, he was a monster. In 2013, this guy could be maybe a Top 5 QB in the country.

Look at the weapons Renner has back. They have Sophomore Quinshad Davis (61 receptions for 770 yards) and Junior tight end Eric Ebron (40 for 625) as their main weapons, with the latter (Ebron) being a borderline All-American candidate after a strong first season as their full-time starter at TE. As for Davis, he’s their leader of their WR core. After him, you have Junior Sean Tapley (26 for 351), Sophomore Kendrick Singleton, Sophomore T.J. Thorpe and Juniors Nic Platt and Roy Smith. What the other WRs lack in proven production after Davis and Tapley, they make up for it in being comfortable in Fedora’s Offense, and there’s only one Senior there. This is going to be a very dangerous core to deal with in 2013. They don’t have the possession WR, so it’ll be up to incoming freshmen, Jordan Fieulleteau and Johnathan Howard, to step up and fill the role Highsmith had in 2012, and be that guy to be that true downfield threat to make opposing DC’s have to respect the slot guy more and not focus on just Davis and Ebron.

Defensively: As great as UNC's offense, the same cannot be said for their defense. In 2012, especially toward the end of the season, they were just horrendous. This area needs plenty of work to build the confidence back up in them. Their strongest area is the secondary, which has all four primary starters back. Their front seven, has to replace:

·         A starting tackle

·         A  stub at MLB

·         Two hybrids

o   An end-linebacker

o   Linebacker-safety.

On one side of the coin, they have to replace some major talent and production off here. On the other side of the coin, these same starters couldn't do anything to halt the 2^nd half skid. However, you don’t replace guys like Sylvester Williams (1^st Round pick {28^th Overall} by the Denver Broncos) and Kevin Reddick (Signed as UFA by the New Orleans Saints) with just anyone. At the same time, they are more familiar with DC Dan Disch's unorthodox system.

They do have coming back on the D-Line, Senior DE Kareem Martin (40 tackles, 15.5 for loss) and senior DT Tim Jackson, with the latter moving over to fill Williams' huge shoes on the inside. With Jackson moving over, this opens a spot at the nose for Junior Shawn Underwood, who was Jackson’s understudy. The question that has to be asked here:

Can Jackson, Underwood and juniors Ethan Farmer and Devonte Brown even come close to duplicating the sort of disruptive presence Williams brought to their defense in 2012? A bigger issue is the lack of size inside: Think about this, they only have one returning lineman over 300 pounds  and that’s Underwood, however, incoming freshman Greg Webb, will be the other. Even if this defense is built on speed, they have to really stand tall at the point of attack and not get pushed around by bigger and more athletic O-Lines. If there’s any good news, its that Martin is good enough to have the Front 4 get on his back, but he’s going to need the others on that line to step up and produce.

As for the LB core, its up to Sophomore Shakeel Rashad (18 tackles, 3.5 for loss) to fill the shoes left by Dion Guy (Graduation) as UNC's hybrid end-linebacker. This is a role that he’ll do very well at because if his speed, agility and overall athleticism. Usually, you would have a converted LB in this role, but they see something in him that makes them believe he can be a full-time starter because he has enough speed to harass skill players off the edge, though he is a bit on the light side  Add to the fact that Junior Tommy Heffernan (73 tackles, 8.5 for loss) is back as the Weak side LB, and they can devote this fall camp to locating a replacement for Reddick in the middle. Something they’ll look at here is to move either Heffernan or Travis Hughes there. That way, that would allow them to have their two most experienced LBs on the field; another option their staff is considering, though less likely this scenario happens, is to give the job to one of two RS Freshmen, (Nathan Staub and Dan Mastromatteo). As it is now, they seem inclined to start either Hughes or Heffernan on the weak side, with the reserve still playing a big role, and have inexperience replace one of the best linebackers in the ACC in Reddick. There will be a dropoff there without question.

Their secondary, as stated earlier, has everyone back, and this could be one of the better units in the ACC. Injuries were an issue back in the Spring. However, their starting four should remain the same:

·         Senior Jabari Price (76 tackles) and junior Tim Price (48 tackles, 4 interceptions) at CB.

·         Senior Tre Boston (86 tackles, 4 interceptions) at FS

·         Either sophomores Sam Smiley or Darien Rankin (48 tackles, 3 interceptions) at strong safety.

When you look at their safeties, this group is loaded with talent. The hybrid spot, one shared by Gene Robinson and Pete Mangum last year, will be held by Junior Brandon Ellerbe, who’s a former safety that moved to the position following last season's scheme change. Ellerbe's coverage experience is key because their hybrid acts more like a fifth defensive back than a third linebacker.

Special teams: Losing Casey Barth (Graduation) is huge and filling his shoes is going to be a very tough act. The one they will turn to here to fill the huge shoes left behind by Barth is Junior Thomas Moore, who made two of his three attempts in limited duty a year ago.

However, they do get Junior Tommy Hibbard back at Punter. Some would say he’s the best punter in the ACC, though Duke's Will Monday will have something to say about that. They do get Tapley back on Kick returns, which gives them very nice field-position asset, however, when you lose a Home Run threat like Bernard, there’s going to be big drop there.  

In closing, looking at Carolina’s schedule, right off the bat, they have to go to Columbia for a meeting with Mr. Clowney and Co. on a Thursday Night. After that, they have MTSU in their home opener, and after a BYE week, go to Atlanta to play GT, before going back home for East Carolina the following week. They’re back on the road the following week to Blacksburg to play VT. After the second BYE week, we come to town for a Thursday Night game and nine days later, they host BC. After the Eagles game, they go back on the road to Raleigh to play NC State, before coming back home the following week to host UVa. After the Cavaliers leave Chapel Hill, they make the trip North to ACC newcomer Pittsburgh, to close the road portion of their schedule. They close with Old Dominion and Duke at home.

I have to tell you this team has the chance to win 10 games this year. Will they do it? Probably not. I’m going with 9-3 for North Carolina in 2013.

In Part 7 of the series, I will talk about the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. 

Report Card vs North Carolina

Highlights: Miami vs. North Carolina

Looking at yesterday's game, once again, the D gives up almost 500 yards to Carolina (177 to Gio Bernard alone on 27 carries, with 1 TD). The 3rd down conversion rates were the same for both teams (6-15). The reason we lost this one yesterday was because we lost the turnover battle (-1). You rarely win games when you lose the turnover battle. We wasted a near 100 yard rushing game out of MJ. We did win the field position battle (Average drive starts: Carolina from their own 21, us from our own 22).

This was one of those games where you have a chance to win, but don't make the plays needed late to win.

That said, time for the Report Card.

Offense: C:  Offense did so-so. First possession, the penalty on Malcolm on 4th and 1, was a momentum killer because it pushed us back 5 yards and we ultimately had to punt. Two picks in the 1st half, the first one near the red zone on our next possession, was another killer right there because that's points we left on the field (7, and that ultimately would come back to bite us late). We turned the ball over on downs on the next possession on 4th and 3 when Hurns couldn't make a play. Later the 2nd Morris pick was at the 7 of Carolina. We allow a sack on the final drive that was a back-breaker for us. There were some bright spots, but we have to get rid of the dropsie disease because once again yesterday, it reared its ugly head in key moments.

Defense: D-: Once again, the D allows almost 500 yards of total offense to Carolina (486 to be exact), and we had little to no answer for Bernard, who went for 177 on 27 carries and 1 TD. We gave Renner almost all day to throw. Though EJ did get the pick early in the game (and had 4 tackles, 2 TFLs) we made Renner look too comfortable in the pocket. We did break up 5 passes yesterday. Denzel had an 11 tackle game (3 TFLs). Carolina was 6-15 (40%) on 3rd down and of those, 3 of those conversions were from 5 yards or less, but what was really disheartening there was the fact that twice, we allowed them to convert on plays more than 6 yards and in big spots too. We killed ourselves here with bad penalties. The PF on Brandon after the run by Romar of Carolina on their 2nd possession. We have another penalty where we have 12 on the field. However, the missed by Barth bailed them out there. On their 2nd possession of the 3rd quarter, the D makes a stop, only to have a PI call on Brandon keep their drive alive, but once again, the D rose up to make a key play and get off the field. Overall here, still needs work to get better. There was some, but not by much from last week.

Special Teams: C: I could tell that this staff had little to no confidence in Jake making kicks in pressure spots, hence, that's why we went for it a lot on 4th downs. Another solid game out of Dalton Botts. 2 of his 3 punts were downed, one of which inside the 1. We did win the field position battle (Carolina started from their own 21, CANES from their own 22). There's still some work to do here. Jake needs to get his confidence back before Saturday Night vs FSU.

In closing, overall, this is one of those games where you have a chance to win late, but we don't make the plays needed to be made in key situations. Tip your cap to Carolina, they made the plays they needed to make and we didn't. That's all there is to it. We know the challenge ahead of us on Saturday Night vs FSU in Primetime on ABC. Gotta get back up and play an outstanding Seminole team.

North Carolina Preview

National Ranks in parenthesis

Total Offense vs Total Defense
CANES 441.3 ypg (40th) vs UNC 312.3 ypg allowed (20th)
UNC 486.7 ypg (23rd) vs CANES 510 ypg allowed (118th)

Scoring Offense vs Scoring Defense
CANES 30.2 ppg (T-54th {WMU}) vs UNC 17.8 ppg allowed (26th)
UNC 44 ppg (9th) vs CANES 34.7 ppg allowed (101st)

Rushing Offense vs Rushing Defense
CANES 134.2 ypg (89th) vs UNC 86.3 ypg allowed (11th)
UNC 200.3 ypg (32nd) vs CANES 250.7 ypg allowed (116th)

Passing Offense vs Passing Defense
CANES 307.2 ypg (15th) vs UNC 226 ypg allowed (62nd)
UNC 286.3 ypg (31st) vs CANES 259.3 ypg allowed (91st)

Pass Efficiency vs Pass Efficiency Defense 
CANES 132.7 (64th) vs UNC 113.16 (30th)
UNC 153.4 (22nd) vs CANES 146.79 (102nd)

TFLs Allowed vs TFLs
CANES 4.17 (T-18th {Ohio}) vs UNC 8.3 (T-6th {BYU, LSU})
UNC 6.17 (T-79th {VT, UK, UConn}) vs CANES 5.2 (T-82nd {Minnesota})

Sacks Allowed vs Sacks
CANES 1.17 pg (T-26th {USF, Arkansas St.}) vs UNC 2.5 pg (T-32nd {Arkansas, Missouri, Duke, Toledo, Cal, Temple, Oregon St.})
UNC .67 pg (T-11th {Ohio, Duke, Tulsa}) vs CANES 1.17 pg (T-102nd {Clemson})

3rd Down O vs 3rd Down D
CANES 45.1% (41st) vs UNC 34.78% (35th)
UNC 45.98% (36th) vs CANES 45% (T-94th {Idaho})

Time of Possession
CANES 24:54 pg (116th)
UNC 27:06 pg (107th)

Turnover Margin
CANES +3 (.6 pg) (T-33rd {LSU, Oregon, South Carolina})
UNC +5 (.83 pg) (T-23rd {New Mexico, Ohio St.})

Net Punting
CANES 35.43 avg (88th)
UNC 39.1 avg (31st)

Punt Returns vs Punt Return D
CANES 7 ypg (74th) vs UNC 3.3 ypg allowed (21st)
UNC 13.9 ypg (23rd) vs CANES 16.7 ypg allowed (115th)

Kick Returns vs Kick Return D
CANES 24.7 (29th) vs UNC 20.8 allowed (57th)
UNC 26.3 (18th) vs CANES 14.4 allowed (4th)

A couple of stats jump out at me here. First, their D vs the Run. It is very good. They are as you can see 11th in the nation in that category. Another that jumps out is the TFLs. They are tied for 6th with BYU and LSU in this category. They swarm to the ball carriers very quickly. Their Punt Return D is very good. They only allow 3.3 ypg here. The opportunities when we have them, we need to take advantage to give the O good field position.  Our Run D will be tested tomorrow with trying to stop UNC RB Gio Bernard. He lit VT's vaunted D for over 200 yards last week.

In the end, I believe we'll make just enough plays to win. Gametime tomorrow is at 2:30 on ESPNU.

My prediction: CANES 38 Carolina 31

Report Card for game vs Notre Dame (Chicago)

Well, last night's game, on the first possession, we had two golden opportunities to really set the tone in this game, but didn't take advantage at that point and you could tell from there that the air just went out of us from that point on. Another chance we had late in the half to cut the ND lead to 7 was missed when Jake missed a FG that didn't have a chance from the start. In the 2nd half, when we needed a stop on the 1st possession by ND, it didn't happen, they scored and from that point, they dominated in the 2nd half and we had no answer for them at all. Tip your cap to the Irish, they just kicked our butts in the 2nd half.

Here's the ugly report card for last night's game

Offense: D- : Only 285 yards of total offense and of that, just 84 yards rushing. (Duke 22 yards on 8 carries, MJ 28 yards on 6 carries). The dropsie disease was very much in evidence last night, especially on the first possession, two drops by Phillip that would have been 6 for us. Yes, Morris was 18-35 for 201, but after he was harassed and hurried in this game, really from the 2nd quarter on. Morris was hurried 5 times last night and the O-Line did not adjust to that at all. The O-Line didn't allow a sack which was good, but the ND front 7 really took it to our O-Line in this game. Also, didn't help when Stephen's TD was called back by Jonny's holding penalty on the next possession after the two drops by Phillip on the first one. Jonny killed us with two penalties on that drive. Poor performance last night all around here. You will not win games against Top 10 opponents when you have just 84 yards rushing.

Defense: F : Here are the ugly numbers allowed. Total offense by ND: 587. Of that 587 yards allowed, 376 of those yards were on the ground. We allow two of their rushers to go over 115 yards rushing (Atkinson III 123 on 10 carries 1 TD, and Wood 118 on 18 carries 2 TDs). We even allowed McDaniel to score a late TD. We did try to blitz last night but to little or no avail. Just 1 QB Hurry all night (Bush). The penalties here were just as bad. The personal foul on EJ on the 1st drive kept a ND drive where they ultimately scored. Later, an offside penalty on Corey on ND's first drive of the 2nd half, kept a scoring drive for them alive and they ultimately got 7 there and for all intents, ball game over at 20-3. Complete disaster all around by the D. They allowed ND to get on all their possessions in the 2nd half 4 TDs. On ND's 2nd possession of the 2nd half, they went to the running game and we could not stop it at all and they knew it was coming. Their O-Line just dominated our front 7 last night. We allowed 34 first downs to ND last night. Completely inexcusable.

Special Teams: D- : Gabriel's BS roughing the kicker call on 1st punt by ND, kept their drive alive and they ultimately got 7 from it. Later at 13-3 ND, Tyrone gets called for an illegal block in the back that pushes us back from a field position standpoint. ND started their drives from an average of their own 18 while we started our drives from an average of our own 28. Usually when you win the field position battle, you usually get the win. Last night was certainly not the case at all. Jake misses a key FG that would have cut the ND lead at Half to 7. Botts did have a TB in this game, but three of his punts were inside the 20. Overall, very poor performance by the Special Teams.

In closing, we have to bounce back from this and forget this game. This game is over and the next focus needs to be on Carolina, which had an impressive win over VT yesterday. We're home for the next three games, and it'll be good to get back to Sun Life and hopefully back on the winning track.

Part 7 of 12 part CANE 2012 opponent series

In Part 7 of this series, we're going to preview the 2012 North Carolina Tar Heels. There's a new coach in Chapel in Larry Fedora, who comes over from Southern Miss. This team will not be eligible for the ACC title or go to a Bowl game as they are on probation. One of the reasons why was former Tar Heel and current NY Giant WR Hakeem Nicks, who was an all-time great at Carolina, was alleged to have committed "academic fraud" while in Chapel Hill, and his receiving records were given huge asterisks in the record book. Nothing further in the way of sanctions will come of this for them.

Let's get to the on the field issues for Carolina in 2012. Fedora takes over with a situation that's going to be pretty interesting to watch in Chapel Hill. Anytime you have a new job, you want to be loaded as much as possible. probably rather take on a roster stocked with somewhat underachieving former four-star recruits than hard workers who get less attention. However, Fedora's first team in Chapel Hill will feature four-star starters at quarterback, running back, at least two offensive line spots, and both linebacker positions in his 4-2-5 defense, and that will be the big adjustment right there. You will see more players in their rotation at receiver, defensive back and on the D-Line, who with a new staff, will take some time, but the benefits in the end, could work out quite nicely.

However, Fedora dismisses such talk and for good reasons. Number 1, it's what coaches do. Number 2, even he probably doesn't know what this team is capable of yet. No matter how good the players were in H.S., this Carolina team was so-so  in the trenches in 2011 and their running game suffered because of it. Their Front seven couldn't really generate a pass rush, and relied on coming up big on both passing downs and fourth quarter successes to pull out seven wins last year. Also, how do you motivate a team that knows off the bat that no matter how well they do in 2012, they will not be going to the postseason. 

Because of all the factors at play here, This is an unpredictable team in 2012.

Let's start with the Offense: 

There's a new staff in place. Fedora brings some familiar faces from Southern Miss with him to Chapel Hill. He has Blake Anderson, who was his OC, WR coach Gunter Brewer, who was once co-coordinator with Fedora at Oklahoma State, and he inherits some solid, experienced personnel.

We start with Junior QB Bryn Renner (6'3" 215), who had an interesting 2011 season, his first as their starter full time. In his first two games as a starter, he completed 42-49 (a ridiculously high 86% completion rate) for 550 yards; but he also threw more picks (four) than actual incompletions (three). Through seven games, his completion rate was 75%, and he averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt (which doesn't include sacks) and his TD-to-Pick ratio was 14-to-6. However, in the final few games of the season, he started to tail off: In his final six games, his completion rate was just 62%, and his average per pass attempt was 8.3 yards. He threw 12 TDs, and had 7 picks. He matured in the fact that when he got in trouble, he would throw the ball away, which cut the picks down a bit. However, part of his problem was that opponents would adjust better and learning the position on a full-time basis.

If he gets better in 2012, he should be one to really watch for a very good year. Fedora at Southern Miss' had Austin Davis. In 2011, he threw 34 passes per game last year in a more high-paced Golden Eagles attack, and Renner will get his chance to prove himself this season. The difference between Davis and Renner is that Davis had four better receivers at Southern Miss, than Renner does right now. Their first stringer on their preseason depth chart included Senior Erik Highsmith (6'3" 190, who had in 2011, 725 yards, 9.5 per target, 67% reception rate). He could have a big year. He also had two players who combined for more tackles (2.5) than catches (zero) last year. Oh yeah, and one was kicked off the team recently. Senior Todd Harrelson (6'2" 195) moved from the secondary to WR in the offseason, but we're not going to find out if he is actually any good or not because he slacked off in his academics and therefore, is no longer on the football team. Meanwhile, sophomore Sean Tapley (6'1" 185), who was a reserve in 2011, had a very good spring and could win one of the starting WR jobs. One player that needs to step up in Fedora's offense is Senior Jheranie Boyd (6'2" 190). This guy has all the potential for all four years he's been there and has not lived up to his potential, in spite of the fact, that he averaged over 20 yards per catch in 2011, but they only went to him 24 times. Meanwhile, some other receivers that can make an impact in 2012, are sophomores T.J. Thorpe (6' 190) and Reggie Wilkins (5'10" 175). They combined to be targeted just six times for six receptions and 123 yards. They showed as much as they could when given an opportunity to shine. Meanwhile, Fedora didn't use the TE as much at Southern Miss, but in Chapel Hill, you might see the TE gets used more when you consider that they have a good one in Sophomore Eric Ebron (6'4" 230), who in 2011, caught 10 out of 17 receptions for 207 yards.

The receivers need to step up in 2012. When it comes to their running game, they have a very good one in Sophomore RB Giovani Bernard (5'10", 205). He rushed for 1,261 yards as a RS freshman last year, and it was more impressive when you consider the fact that their O-Line was mediocre at best. He also had 45 receptions for 374 yards, 7.1 per target, 85% catch rate as well. Do not underestimate his potential as a receiver in this offense, this guy is the real deal; When Fedora was at Southern Miss, he had no problem getting the ball into the hands of his big play guys in unique ways last year. Tracy Lampley got 91 carries, while running backs Jamal Woodyard and Kendrick Hardy each were targeted 40 times. In Carolina, Bernard and Junior backup A.J. Blue (6'2" 230) could be big players in the offense, both running and passing. 

On the O-Line, They return five players with starting experience. This unit has combined to start 93 games, which is one the higher marks in the nation. 

On to the Defense, there's a new man in charge here, and that's Dan Disch, who also comes to Chapel Hill from Hattiesburg. While there, he had a really fun, fast Southern Miss defense in 2011, and he was only there for a year after six years in Champaign. His mission, and he chose to accept it, was to have the same success he had in Hattiesburg and Champaign, in Chapel Hill. Disch's lone year at Southern Miss was an enormous success -- the Golden Eagles improved from 59th to 16th in Def. 

In 2012, he won't have as many experienced players to work with to make his system work. This is especially true in the secondary as they will be going to a three-safety look despite losing two of its top four safeties (Jonathan Smith [undrafted FA to Tampa Bay], Matt Merletti [undrafted FA to Indianapolis]) from the 2011 team. They do get Senior Gene Robinson (5'11" 190) back. He had 37.5 tackles, 4.0 TFLs, and three passes broken up. He takes over as the RAM hybrid, and junior Tre Boston (6'1" 190) who had 59.0 tackles, 1.5 TFLs, and five passes broken up should be fine at the SS position. However, just two other safeties played last year: That would be former walk-on Senior Pete Mangum (5'10" 185), who had 19.0 tackles and junior D.J. Bunn (6' 205), who had just 2.5 tackles. The latter, was kicked off the team because of academics, just like Harrelson. Players in the secondary that are going to have to step their games up are Redshirt freshmen like Darien Rankin (5'11" 185) and Sam Smiley (5'11" 175), as well as Sophomore walk-on Jeff Schoettmer (6'1" 205). Those players will fill in the two-deep. If they do have solid years, their front six that do return could be just enough to have good years as well.

As for their D-Line, Graduation and early departures took a big bite out of here. DEs Quinton Coples (1st round pick to the NY Jets) and Donte Paige-Moss (undrafted) both left school early, and tackles Tydreke Powell (undrafted FA to the Minnesota Vikings) and Jordan Nix (undrafted FA to Tampa Bay) are gone; meanwhile,at the LB position, they lost linebackers Zach Brown (last year's leading tackler by far, and is now a Tennessee Titan), and Darius Lipford (6'3" 230) who had 29.5 tackles in 2011 is gone for the year with a knee injury. There is enough left over, however, to talk yourself into the unit if you are so inclined.

They do get back Senior tackle Sylvester Williams (6'3" 320). In 2011, he had 38.5 tackles, 7.0 TFLs, and broke up or knocked down 4 passes. He has the potential to be one of the nation's better DTs. He can do better with his game. If he does, that could open things up for Sophomore Shawn Underwood (6'1" 300), who's also a #1 on their depth chart, even though he didn't get many opportunities last season. If Williams commands the double and triple teams, Underwood could have a big year. At the edges, they have Kareem Martin (6'6" 260), who had 7.TFLs, and either broke up or knocked down six passes in 2011. He should be a solid player on their D-Line. On the other side, they have Senior Dion Guy (6'4" 235), and is pretty small for that position, but he had just 8.5 tackles last year, but he will get the first crack at starting at the "BANDIT" position. Disch and Fedora will tend to use a couple of different hybrid positions (the Bandit is part end, part outside linebacker; the Ram is part safety, part outside linebacker) to give opposing offenses different and multiple looks, however, the down side is that no one with serious experience is listed at that  position.

At LB, the ones that are back are former four-star recruits Senior Kevin Reddick (6'3" 240), who had TFLs and broke up four passes in 2011 and Sophomore Travis Hughes (6'2" 225), who as a freshman in 2011, had 8.5 tackles.Those are the likely starters and will be interesting to watch in 2012. However, they are very thin and if either one or both go down, its pretty thin depth wise after that. If players like Guy, Hughes and whoever wins the free safety job (as of now, their staff thinks its going to be Smiley) are able to make some plays, this defense could resemble what last year's was supposed to. But those are still "if's" right now.

As for their schedule, just too many questions, and they have to go to Louisville early, so we'll get some idea about them. They get Virginia Tech and NC State at home, but do have to go to Miami, and Virginia late in the year on a Thursday Night. For them in 2012, every game is their bowl game, I'm going to predict for UNC in 2012 a 6-6 record. 

In Part 8 of the series, we're going to preview a team some predict could be a serious National Championship contender in the Florida State Seminoles.