Let's get to the on the field issues for Carolina in 2012. Fedora takes over with a situation that's going to be pretty interesting to watch in Chapel Hill. Anytime you have a new job, you want to be loaded as much as possible. probably rather take on a roster stocked with somewhat underachieving former four-star recruits than hard workers who get less attention. However, Fedora's first team in Chapel Hill will feature four-star starters at quarterback, running back, at least two offensive line spots, and both linebacker positions in his 4-2-5 defense, and that will be the big adjustment right there. You will see more players in their rotation at receiver, defensive back and on the D-Line, who with a new staff, will take some time, but the benefits in the end, could work out quite nicely.
However, Fedora dismisses such talk and for good reasons. Number 1, it's what coaches do. Number 2, even he probably doesn't know what this team is capable of yet. No matter how good the players were in H.S., this Carolina team was so-so in the trenches in 2011 and their running game suffered because of it. Their Front seven couldn't really generate a pass rush, and relied on coming up big on both passing downs and fourth quarter successes to pull out seven wins last year. Also, how do you motivate a team that knows off the bat that no matter how well they do in 2012, they will not be going to the postseason.
Because of all the factors at play here, This is an unpredictable team in 2012.
Let's start with the Offense:
There's a new staff in place. Fedora brings some familiar faces from Southern Miss with him to Chapel Hill. He has Blake Anderson, who was his OC, WR coach Gunter Brewer, who was once co-coordinator with Fedora at Oklahoma State, and he inherits some solid, experienced personnel.
We start with Junior QB Bryn Renner (6'3" 215), who had an interesting 2011 season, his first as their starter full time. In his first two games as a starter, he completed 42-49 (a ridiculously high 86% completion rate) for 550 yards; but he also threw more picks (four) than actual incompletions (three). Through seven games, his completion rate was 75%, and he averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt (which doesn't include sacks) and his TD-to-Pick ratio was 14-to-6. However, in the final few games of the season, he started to tail off: In his final six games, his completion rate was just 62%, and his average per pass attempt was 8.3 yards. He threw 12 TDs, and had 7 picks. He matured in the fact that when he got in trouble, he would throw the ball away, which cut the picks down a bit. However, part of his problem was that opponents would adjust better and learning the position on a full-time basis.
If he gets better in 2012, he should be one to really watch for a very good year. Fedora at Southern Miss' had Austin Davis. In 2011, he threw 34 passes per game last year in a more high-paced Golden Eagles attack, and Renner will get his chance to prove himself this season. The difference between Davis and Renner is that Davis had four better receivers at Southern Miss, than Renner does right now. Their first stringer on their preseason depth chart included Senior Erik Highsmith (6'3" 190, who had in 2011, 725 yards, 9.5 per target, 67% reception rate). He could have a big year. He also had two players who combined for more tackles (2.5) than catches (zero) last year. Oh yeah, and one was kicked off the team recently. Senior Todd Harrelson (6'2" 195) moved from the secondary to WR in the offseason, but we're not going to find out if he is actually any good or not because he slacked off in his academics and therefore, is no longer on the football team. Meanwhile, sophomore Sean Tapley (6'1" 185), who was a reserve in 2011, had a very good spring and could win one of the starting WR jobs. One player that needs to step up in Fedora's offense is Senior Jheranie Boyd (6'2" 190). This guy has all the potential for all four years he's been there and has not lived up to his potential, in spite of the fact, that he averaged over 20 yards per catch in 2011, but they only went to him 24 times. Meanwhile, some other receivers that can make an impact in 2012, are sophomores T.J. Thorpe (6' 190) and Reggie Wilkins (5'10" 175). They combined to be targeted just six times for six receptions and 123 yards. They showed as much as they could when given an opportunity to shine. Meanwhile, Fedora didn't use the TE as much at Southern Miss, but in Chapel Hill, you might see the TE gets used more when you consider that they have a good one in Sophomore Eric Ebron (6'4" 230), who in 2011, caught 10 out of 17 receptions for 207 yards.
The receivers need to step up in 2012. When it comes to their running game, they have a very good one in Sophomore RB Giovani Bernard (5'10", 205). He rushed for 1,261 yards as a RS freshman last year, and it was more impressive when you consider the fact that their O-Line was mediocre at best. He also had 45 receptions for 374 yards, 7.1 per target, 85% catch rate as well. Do not underestimate his potential as a receiver in this offense, this guy is the real deal; When Fedora was at Southern Miss, he had no problem getting the ball into the hands of his big play guys in unique ways last year. Tracy Lampley got 91 carries, while running backs Jamal Woodyard and Kendrick Hardy each were targeted 40 times. In Carolina, Bernard and Junior backup A.J. Blue (6'2" 230) could be big players in the offense, both running and passing.
On the O-Line, They return five players with starting experience. This unit has combined to start 93 games, which is one the higher marks in the nation.
On to the Defense, there's a new man in charge here, and that's Dan Disch, who also comes to Chapel Hill from Hattiesburg. While there, he had a really fun, fast Southern Miss defense in 2011, and he was only there for a year after six years in Champaign. His mission, and he chose to accept it, was to have the same success he had in Hattiesburg and Champaign, in Chapel Hill. Disch's lone year at Southern Miss was an enormous success -- the Golden Eagles improved from 59th to 16th in Def.
In 2012, he won't have as many experienced players to work with to make his system work. This is especially true in the secondary as they will be going to a three-safety look despite losing two of its top four safeties (Jonathan Smith [undrafted FA to Tampa Bay], Matt Merletti [undrafted FA to Indianapolis]) from the 2011 team. They do get Senior Gene Robinson (5'11" 190) back. He had 37.5 tackles, 4.0 TFLs, and three passes broken up. He takes over as the RAM hybrid, and junior Tre Boston (6'1" 190) who had 59.0 tackles, 1.5 TFLs, and five passes broken up should be fine at the SS position. However, just two other safeties played last year: That would be former walk-on Senior Pete Mangum (5'10" 185), who had 19.0 tackles and junior D.J. Bunn (6' 205), who had just 2.5 tackles. The latter, was kicked off the team because of academics, just like Harrelson. Players in the secondary that are going to have to step their games up are Redshirt freshmen like Darien Rankin (5'11" 185) and Sam Smiley (5'11" 175), as well as Sophomore walk-on Jeff Schoettmer (6'1" 205). Those players will fill in the two-deep. If they do have solid years, their front six that do return could be just enough to have good years as well.
As for their D-Line, Graduation and early departures took a big bite out of here. DEs Quinton Coples (1st round pick to the NY Jets) and Donte Paige-Moss (undrafted) both left school early, and tackles Tydreke Powell (undrafted FA to the Minnesota Vikings) and Jordan Nix (undrafted FA to Tampa Bay) are gone; meanwhile,at the LB position, they lost linebackers Zach Brown (last year's leading tackler by far, and is now a Tennessee Titan), and Darius Lipford (6'3" 230) who had 29.5 tackles in 2011 is gone for the year with a knee injury. There is enough left over, however, to talk yourself into the unit if you are so inclined.
They do get back Senior tackle Sylvester Williams (6'3" 320). In 2011, he had 38.5 tackles, 7.0 TFLs, and broke up or knocked down 4 passes. He has the potential to be one of the nation's better DTs. He can do better with his game. If he does, that could open things up for Sophomore Shawn Underwood (6'1" 300), who's also a #1 on their depth chart, even though he didn't get many opportunities last season. If Williams commands the double and triple teams, Underwood could have a big year. At the edges, they have Kareem Martin (6'6" 260), who had 7.TFLs, and either broke up or knocked down six passes in 2011. He should be a solid player on their D-Line. On the other side, they have Senior Dion Guy (6'4" 235), and is pretty small for that position, but he had just 8.5 tackles last year, but he will get the first crack at starting at the "BANDIT" position. Disch and Fedora will tend to use a couple of different hybrid positions (the Bandit is part end, part outside linebacker; the Ram is part safety, part outside linebacker) to give opposing offenses different and multiple looks, however, the down side is that no one with serious experience is listed at that position.
At LB, the ones that are back are former four-star recruits Senior Kevin Reddick (6'3" 240), who had TFLs and broke up four passes in 2011 and Sophomore Travis Hughes (6'2" 225), who as a freshman in 2011, had 8.5 tackles.Those are the likely starters and will be interesting to watch in 2012. However, they are very thin and if either one or both go down, its pretty thin depth wise after that. If players like Guy, Hughes and whoever wins the free safety job (as of now, their staff thinks its going to be Smiley) are able to make some plays, this defense could resemble what last year's was supposed to. But those are still "if's" right now.
As for their schedule, just too many questions, and they have to go to Louisville early, so we'll get some idea about them. They get Virginia Tech and NC State at home, but do have to go to Miami, and Virginia late in the year on a Thursday Night. For them in 2012, every game is their bowl game, I'm going to predict for UNC in 2012 a 6-6 record.
In Part 8 of the series, we're going to preview a team some predict could be a serious National Championship contender in the Florida State Seminoles.
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