Oct
17th - @North Carolina (Thursday Night)
Well, we are halfway home in this opponent series. In
Part 6, I’ll preview the 2013 North Carolina Tar Heels, whom we visit up in
Chapel Hill on Oct 17th, a Thursday Night game at 7:30 on ESPN.
Here’s what you need to know about the Tar Heels:
They are coached by Larry Fedora (Austin College '85), who enters his 2nd season with
the Tar Heels. He led them to an 8-4 season and won the Coastal, but they were
ineligible for the ACC Championship game due to probation. He was hired in
January of last year after four years at Southern Missi, where he went 34-19 in
his tenure there. That includes a 12-2 finish and Conference USA championship
in his final season in Hattiesburg. In Fedora's last two seasons with the
Golden Eagles, they made unbelievable strides on Offense, Defense and, the most
important of all, in the win column. Think about this, his first team in
Carolina, seemed more poised and were more comfortable in his offense than he
had in his final two years in Hattiesburg. Simply put, the Tar Heels are already
ahead of schedule.
To put Fedora’s success in perspective, in 2010, his Golden
Eagles team won eight games for the first time since 2006. His first two years
there were nothing to write home about. However, in 2008, after a 2-6 start,
they won their final 5 games to finish 7-6. That year, the offense came alive,
and they broke a then school record for points with 398. The next year, they
would score 428 points. IN 2010, they scored 479 points, and in Fedora’s final
year, they scored 512 points.
That’s the main reason
North Carolina brought Fedora in. When you look at the resume of this man, He was
Mike Gundy’s OC at Oklahoma State from 2005-07, and they got better offensively
each year he was there. The offense in Stillwater, struggled in 2005, finishing
96th nationally in scoring, the Cowboys finished in the top 10 in rushing yards
and the top 20 in total offense in each of the following two seasons. The following
year, they were one of two teams (Boise being the other) to average 200 yards
per game both Rushing and Passing. Before his stint in Stillwater, he spent
time in Gainesville on Ron Zook’s staff, with the final year (2004) being the
OC and at Middle Tennessee State from 1999-2001 as offensive coordinator. His
other FBS assistant experience were at Air Force (1997-98) and Baylor
(1990-1996). Carolina was sending a message, they were going to compete for ACC
titles and be a national power in Football again.
Let’s break down the North Carolina Tar Heels:
Offensively: They lost their biggest
weapon Giovani Bernard, who decided to forgo his final 2 years of eligibility
and enter the NFL (Drafted in 2nd Round by the Cincinnati Bengals). They
do have nice pieces coming back, but having to fill Bernard’s shoes isn’t going
to be easy. Its up to both Senior A.J. Blue (433 yards, 5.28 yards per carry)
and Sophomore Romar Morris (386 yards, 5.59 yards per carry). They did ok in
2012 when given the chance to produce. If they want to have a solid starter,
most likely it’ll be Blue that they lean on here. He did have a 100-yard game,
when Bernard was out vs. Wake Forest. However, don’t be surprised if Fedora
decides to go with a back by committee approach here between Blue, Morris,
sophomore Travis Riley and true freshman T.J. Logan. Two big issues they need
to get addressed:
·
UNC loses a star, in Gio Bernard and you don’t replace with just
anyone.
·
They have to replace three starters on the O-Line (which I’ll
talk about next)
How far their running
game drops off, and there will be a drop off this year, will hinge on how
quickly everyone steps up and produces in their new roles?
I want to get more in depth about the O-Line: In 2012, they had three Seniors there and they allowed
the 9th fewest sacks in the country with 11. However, in 2013, they
must replace three starters there:
·
Jonathan Cooper at left guard (1st
Round pick by the Arizona Cardinals) – who was one of the best O-Lineman in the
country
·
Travis Bond (7th Round pick by the
Minnesota Vikings) and Brennan Williams (3rd Round pick by the
Houston Texans) from the right side.
They do
get back Senior left tackle James Hurst, who’s easily an all First Team ACC
player, and Junior center Russell Bodine, who’s become more of the vocal leader
on that line. To fill those huge shoes of the three Seniors they lost to
Graduation/NFL Draft, they’ll look to Landon Turner, a sophomore, at RG, like
they did in the final four games of last season because Williams got hurt, and RS
Freshman Caleb Peterson, who will have to huge task of filling Cooper’s huge
shoes at LG, barring any developments during fall camp. At RT, it’ll be up to Junior
Nick Appel to step up. When you have an All-ACC First team player like Hurst
next to you on the line, Peterson should be able to make the quick transition
to a starting job and shine. When you add a leader like Bodine, that should
make the interior of the O-Line very good. If there’s a down side, and there is a down
side here, it’s the fact that Peterson is raw. You have to realize that the
right side of their line goes from extremely inexperienced to, at best, a minor
concern. However, the other side of the coin there, is that the right side could
be a major problem for an Offense looking to continue the momentum that last season
had success on the ground. Also, while Carolina add four recruits in time for
fall camp, which includes a JUCO transfer, they are lacking depth here and anyone
goes down, it could be big trouble in Chapel Hill.
Look at the weapons Renner has back. They have Sophomore Quinshad Davis (61 receptions for 770 yards)
and Junior tight end Eric Ebron (40 for 625) as their main weapons, with the
latter (Ebron) being a borderline All-American candidate after a strong first
season as their full-time starter at TE. As for Davis, he’s their leader of
their WR core. After him, you have Junior Sean Tapley (26 for 351), Sophomore
Kendrick Singleton, Sophomore T.J. Thorpe and Juniors Nic Platt and Roy Smith. What
the other WRs lack in proven production after Davis and Tapley, they make up
for it in being comfortable in Fedora’s Offense, and there’s only one Senior
there. This is going to be a very dangerous core to deal with in 2013. They don’t
have the possession WR, so it’ll be up to incoming freshmen, Jordan Fieulleteau
and Johnathan Howard, to step up and fill the role Highsmith had in 2012, and
be that guy to be that true downfield threat to make opposing DC’s have to respect
the slot guy more and not focus on just Davis and Ebron.
Defensively: As great as UNC's offense, the same cannot be said for their defense.
In 2012, especially toward the end of the season, they were just horrendous.
This area needs plenty of work to build the confidence back up in them. Their
strongest area is the secondary, which has all four primary starters back.
Their front seven, has to replace:
·
A starting tackle
·
A stub at MLB
·
Two hybrids
o An end-linebacker
o Linebacker-safety.
On one side of the coin,
they have to replace some major talent and production off here. On the other
side of the coin, these same starters couldn't do anything to halt the 2nd
half skid. However, you don’t replace guys like Sylvester Williams (1st
Round pick {28th Overall} by the Denver Broncos) and Kevin Reddick (Signed
as UFA by the New Orleans Saints) with just anyone. At the same time, they are
more familiar with DC Dan Disch's unorthodox system.
They do have coming back
on the D-Line, Senior DE Kareem Martin (40 tackles, 15.5 for loss) and senior DT
Tim Jackson, with the latter moving over to fill Williams' huge shoes on the inside.
With Jackson moving over, this opens a spot at the nose for Junior Shawn
Underwood, who was Jackson’s understudy. The question that has to be asked
here:
Can Jackson, Underwood and juniors Ethan Farmer and Devonte
Brown even come close to duplicating the sort of disruptive presence Williams
brought to their defense in 2012? A bigger issue is the lack of size inside: Think
about this, they only have one returning lineman over 300 pounds and that’s Underwood, however, incoming
freshman Greg Webb, will be the other. Even if this defense is built on speed, they
have to really stand tall at the point of attack and not get pushed around by
bigger and more athletic O-Lines. If there’s any good news, its that Martin is
good enough to have the Front 4 get on his back, but he’s going to need the
others on that line to step up and produce.
As for the LB core, its
up to Sophomore Shakeel Rashad (18 tackles, 3.5 for loss) to fill the shoes
left by Dion Guy (Graduation) as UNC's hybrid end-linebacker. This is a role that
he’ll do very well at because if his speed, agility and overall athleticism. Usually,
you would have a converted LB in this role, but they see something in him that
makes them believe he can be a full-time starter because he has enough speed to
harass skill players off the edge, though he is a bit on the light side Add to the fact that Junior Tommy Heffernan
(73 tackles, 8.5 for loss) is back as the Weak side LB, and they can devote this
fall camp to locating a replacement for Reddick in the middle. Something they’ll
look at here is to move either Heffernan or Travis Hughes there. That way, that
would allow them to have their two most experienced LBs on the field; another
option their staff is considering, though less likely this scenario happens, is
to give the job to one of two RS Freshmen, (Nathan Staub and Dan Mastromatteo).
As it is now, they seem inclined to start either Hughes or Heffernan on the
weak side, with the reserve still playing a big role, and have inexperience
replace one of the best linebackers in the ACC in Reddick. There will be a
dropoff there without question.
Their secondary, as
stated earlier, has everyone back, and this could be one of the better units in
the ACC. Injuries were an issue back in the Spring. However, their starting
four should remain the same:
·
Senior Jabari Price (76 tackles) and junior Tim Price (48
tackles, 4 interceptions) at CB.
·
Senior Tre Boston (86 tackles, 4 interceptions) at FS
·
Either sophomores Sam Smiley or Darien Rankin (48 tackles, 3
interceptions) at strong safety.
When you look at their safeties, this group is loaded with talent.
The hybrid spot, one shared by Gene Robinson and Pete Mangum last year, will be
held by Junior Brandon Ellerbe, who’s a former safety that moved to the
position following last season's scheme change. Ellerbe's coverage experience is
key because their hybrid acts more like a fifth defensive back than a third
linebacker.
Special teams: Losing Casey Barth (Graduation) is huge and
filling his shoes is going to be a very tough act. The one they will turn to
here to fill the huge shoes left behind by Barth is Junior Thomas Moore, who
made two of his three attempts in limited duty a year ago.
However, they do get Junior Tommy Hibbard back
at Punter. Some would say he’s the best punter in the ACC, though Duke's Will
Monday will have something to say about that. They do get Tapley back on Kick
returns, which gives them very nice field-position asset, however, when you
lose a Home Run threat like Bernard, there’s going to be big drop there.
In closing, looking at Carolina’s schedule,
right off the bat, they have to go to Columbia for a meeting with Mr. Clowney
and Co. on a Thursday Night. After that, they have MTSU in their home opener,
and after a BYE week, go to Atlanta to play GT, before going back home for East
Carolina the following week. They’re back on the road the following week to
Blacksburg to play VT. After the second BYE week, we come to town for a
Thursday Night game and nine days later, they host BC. After the Eagles game,
they go back on the road to Raleigh to play NC State, before coming back home
the following week to host UVa. After the Cavaliers leave Chapel Hill, they
make the trip North to ACC newcomer Pittsburgh, to close the road portion of
their schedule. They close with Old Dominion and Duke at home.
I have to tell you this team has the chance to
win 10 games this year. Will they do it? Probably not. I’m going with 9-3 for
North Carolina in 2013.
In Part 7 of the series, I will talk about the
Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
No comments:
Post a Comment