Part 7 of the 12 part 2014 Miami Hurricane Opponent Video Series - Cincinnati 10/11

2014 Cincinnati Football Preview

In Part 7 of the 2014 12 part opponent video series, I’m going to talk a little about the Cincinnati Bearcats, our opponent on Oct 11^th at Sun Life Stadium. 

Lets first look at their Talent:

This might a team that has a real special season, provided that Gunner Kiel is consistent and accurate and their Defense stays consistent all year with a new DC in charge. Kiel was on the scout team. If he’s the player that was the five-star out of Indiana, then this offense is going to one teams would not want to face. The backup will be JC transfer Jarred Evans. The old starter Munchie Legaux is back for his 5^th year after suffering a severe knee injury last September. Their running game is strong again as their top three rushers return in Hosey Williams, Ralph David Abernathy and Tion Green. Their ok at the WR position with Seniors Shaq Washington and Chris Moore returning. Washington is an excellent possession receiver who had 78 catches last year. Their O-Line gets three of their starters back in 2014, which includes tackle Eric Lefeld (6-6 309).

Defensively, they are outstanding. In spite of being 9^th nationally in Total D, they still canned Art Kaufman and replaced him with Hank Hughes. Hughes will continue to run the 4-3 defense that was implemented last year. When you look at their D, the core is at the LB position. They get back both Nick Temple and Jeff Luc. Temple had 80 tackles in 2013, Luc finished with 43. On their D-Line, they have back Silverberry Mouhon, who finished with 9 ½ sacks. In the secondary, they have back Safety Zach Edwards, who ended the season with 73 tackles and CB Howard Wilder, who had 35 tackles. If the LB position needed any more depth, they added former Northwestern transfer Eric Wilson which will allow Luc to move to the Middle LB position.

Next, I want to talk about the Coaching:

Wherever Tommy Tuberville has been, he’s won (Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas Tech, and now Cincinnati). This will be year 2 in the Queen City for Tubs, and gets the most out of what he has and develops that talent. We’ll see how he does in Year 2. 

 

Now, to their 2014 Schedule:

Cincinnati went 9-4 last season and finished third in the AAC, so let’s break down their 2014 schedule and how it projects to play out:

In their opener, 9/12 – vs. Toledo (WIN)

Their opener is on a Friday Night this year. Toledo will have two games under their belt, which will make this game close for a half, but in the 2^nd half, the Bearcats get it together, work out the kinks, and win this one going away.

In Week 2, 9/20 – vs. Miami-of-Ohio (WIN)

The Redhawks have a new coach in Chuck Martin who comes over from Notre Dame. When people say “Turn things around”, it’ll mean different things to people. In Miami (OH)’s case, it means to have a fighting chance in MAC contests, , they won’t get the Victory Bell, not this year. Cincinnati wins big here.

In week 3, 9/27 – at Ohio State (LOSS)

If Cincinnati is going to have that magical season, this is one of the two games that will determine that. This will be a tough game, in the end, the Buckeyes are at home, and this is a game they don’t lose. Ohio State gets the nod here to drop the Bearcats to a projected 2-1.

In week 4, 10/4 – vs. Memphis (WIN)

Memphis is a team on the rise, and they will be better, they might get caught looking ahead to the game at Miami the following week. Its on a Wednesday Night and Cincy is coming off a projected tough loss vs Ohio State, and they’ll want to get back on the winning track. Cincy the win here in a game that’s closer than people think.

In week 5, 10/11 – at Miami-Fla. (LOSS)

This is Tubs return to Miami for the first time since 1993, when he was the DC here. Understand this: These guys have the weapons to possibly beat the CANES. Given the fact that Miami after this game will have 13 days off before they go to Blacksburg on a Thursday Night, this is the classic trap game. Our secondary had a difficult time against “pro-style” offenses last season (hello, Teddy Bridgewater in Orlando) and we will have been battle tested at this point with projected wins over Louisville, Nebraska and the Duke (the Former two on the road), this will give the Miami D a lot of confidence going into this game. The Hurricanes will still be without their expected starter in Ryan Williams and will likely start a talented, yet inexperienced true freshman (Brad Kaaya) and possibly Jake Heaps (Transfer) under center. The Bearcats will be up for this game, but I think the CANES will match that intensity and find a way to win the one and spoil Tubs’ return to Miami. CANES win this one to drop the Bearcats to 3-2 in this projection.

In Week 6 10/18 – at SMU (Win)

Traveling from Cincinnati to Miami to Cincinnati to Dallas all within a seven-day time period doesn’t sound favorable, and the Bearcats could be set up for a major letdown following a very tough loss to the CANES. That will not happen, Tubs will have them ready to play and they should blast SMU in this one. Cincy bounces back nicely here. 

In Week 7, 10/24 – vs. South Florida (WIN)
After the win vs SMU, the Bearcats are back home to take on the USF Bulls. The Bearcats have too many weapons for USF to overcome here and the Bulls are another 2 years away from really being a force.  Cincinnati wins here handily at home.

In Week 8, 10/31 – at Tulane (WIN)

Yes, its Halloween night, and it can get very crazy in New Orleans that day. While the Green Wave will hang for a little while, in the end, the Bearcats just have too many weapons for the Tulane to overcome here. Cincy gets the win in the Bayou.

In Week 9, they have a BYE

In Week 10 11/13 – vs. East Carolina (Win)

In a game that will likely decide the AAC title, the ECU Pirates come into Nippert for a Thursday Night game. Cincinnati is 2-2 in Thursday night regular season games since 2010, and Tuberville teams are 2-5 in games following a bye week over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati will have been battle-tested with the early games at Ohio State and at Miami, however, that doesn’t mean they can adjust accordingly. While Shane Carden and company should score at will vs a young UC secondary, I think in the end, Cincinnati makes just enough plays at home to win this one in a high scoring affair.

In Week 11, 11/22 – at Connecticut (WIN)

While this will be a physical game, offensively, UConn doesn’t have the firepower to hang with the Bearcats for 4 quarters. Give the nod to Cincinnati here.
In Week 12, 11/29 – at Temple (WIN)

This is a possible trap game. The AAC title should be clinched in this one by the Bearcats. Yes, Temple will be improved, but not enough to hang with Cincinnati for 4 quarters.

In Week 13, 12/6 – vs. Houston (WIN)

Houston was successful in 2013 for its ability to force turnovers, leading the nation with 43 total turnovers gained (25 interceptions, 18 fumbles). Some of those forced turnovers were the difference in tight contests, as the Cougars played seven games in which the outcome was by 10 points or less. They were also remarkably lucky with how many times the cards fell in their favor. It’s going to be extremely difficult to replicate that kind of production this season, especially with the same attacking philosophy. Cincinnati should be able to watch the film and know how to prepare for this one, winning its season finale and heading into the postseason on a three-game winning streak.

My prediction on the Game vs. CANES:

We’ve beaten the Jackets 5 straight times, and I see nothing different after this one. Look for Duke to have a monster game on the ground, and the D shutting down the Triple Option of theirs. This is a game we win and win easily in Atlanta.
 
In Part 8 of the 2014 series, I will talk about the Virginia Tech Hokies, our opponent on October 23^rd (Thursday Night) up in Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, VA. 

Part 6 of the 12 part 2014 Miami Hurricane Opponent Video Series - @GT 10/4

2014 Georgia Tech Football Preview

We’re halfway home, in Part 6 of the 2014 12 part opponent video series. I’m going to talk a little about the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, our opponent on Oct 4^th at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, GA. 

Lets first look at their Talent:

Just when people think GT takes that next step, they find a way to get back in the hole they’ve been in for the last couple of years. They don’t have the best talent out there, but when you add poor recruiting classes to the mix, it’s a recipe for disaster. GT’s classes in both 2010 and 2011 were ranked in the low 40s, which is so-so. However, the last three classes in Atlanta dropped to  No. 51 (2014), 71 (2013) and 56 (2012). Look for them to be on the bottom half of the talent pool in the ACC in 2014.  Its nothing out of the ordinary here, but look closer and you see that the pressure to win, gets more intense. Scratching out a chance to be bowl eligible will be tough. When you add the fact that they only have back 51 percent of their defensive production from a year ago, that’s trouble. The up side here is that they do return three starters on the O-Line and 74 percent of their offensive output. Look for shootouts early in the year.

Next, I want to talk about the Coaching:

When you look at Paul Johnson, he was the hottest coach in the league early in his tenure, but things have dropped off the last few years in Atlanta. The heat is on Johnson this year to get back to where they were early in his GT tenure. If they have another subpar year in Atlanta, the calls for Johnson’s ouster will grow louder.

Now, to their 2014 Schedule:

Off a 7-6 record in 2013, the Yellow Jackets will have another brutal schedule in 2014 Let’s break the Jackets schedule down.
In their opener, 8/30 vs. Wofford: W

The Jackets opening against an FCS opponent at home in Wofford. This team needs confidence, especially with a New QB at the helm in Justin Thomas. GT wins this one big here.
In Week 2, 9/6 at Tulane: W

Even though, they go down to New Orleans, this is a game GT should and I predict, will win. They just need Thomas to make some plays with his arm, but not too much though.  GT’s triple-option should be humming here and they leave the Bayou with a victory to go to 2-0 in this projection
In week 3, 9/13 vs. Georgia Southern: W

This is a game Johnson’s boys should win, but they should tread lightly here. They’d better get any kinks they might have offensively out of their system here, because after this game, the road gets much tougher. GT to a projected 3-0 after this one.
In week 4, 9/20 at Virginia Tech: L

VT have beaten the Yellow Jackets four straight times and after this one, look for it to be 5 in a row. Even though Bud Foster, doesn’t have the best personnel on D in comparison to recent years, his D’s has had success against the option offense and I see him defeating it again in 2014. VT beats the Jackets to drop them to a projected 3-1.

In week 5, they have a BYE

In Week 6 off the BYE, 10/4 vs. Miami (Fla.): L
Miami comes calling on Atlanta to take on the Jackets. The Hurricanes have had their way with the Jackets the last few years, and with a healthy Johnson back at RB, look for the dominance over the Jackets to continue. CANES over GT to drop the Jackets to a projected 3-2.
In Week 7, 10/11 vs. Duke: L

This game won’t be close at all. While Duke isn’t known for D, it won’t be the replay of last year up in Durham where GT just demolished Duke. Look for a big game out of Jamison Crowder for Duke. Duke too strong here, and they get their payback with a road win over the Jackets to drop GT to a projected 3-3.

In Week 8, 10/18 at North Carolina: L

GT makes the trip up to Chapel Hill to take on the Tar Heels, who could very well be a force to deal with in the Coastal this year. It’s going to be difficult to go into Chapel Hill and come out with a victory, and when you factor in their QB Marquise Williams being one that can put up points very quickly and a porous Tech D, UNC wins this one handily over the Jackets to drop them to a projected 3-4.

In Week 9, 10/25 at Pittsburgh: W

If GT is going to start getting off the mat and get back in the win column, this would be the game to do it here. Pitt lost Aaron Donald to the NFL and their D-Line is weak depth wise. Look for Johnson’s triple option offense to have a field day against that weakened Pitt D up front. Look for a good game out of Thomas, especially when he doesn’t have to throw the ball too much in this one. GT gets the win to get back to a projected 4-4.

In Week 10 11/1 vs. Virginia: W

The Jackets are back home to take on a dreadful Cavalier team, whose coach has a hot seat that will be on fire at this point. It won’t cool after this one either. This is going to be the easiest win of the season for GT here. GT improves to a projected 5-4.

In Week 11, 11/8 at NC State: W

NC State were ranked last in the ACC against the run in 2013, so if there’s another huge game on the ground for the Jackets, this game is it. You’ll see in this one, the classic Paul Johnson M.O., time of possession, long drives, and a punishing triple-option attack here, with their D getting off the field quickly. GT wins this one to improve to a projected 6-4.

In Week 12, 11/15 vs. Clemson: L

It gets tough for the Jackets, with Clemson coming to town. Clemson just has too many weapons for GT in this one. Clemson has a great defense, who is led by All-American DE Vic Beasley, who will have a field day in the GT backfield. Clemson just has way too many weapons here, and a coach in Dabo that knows how to use them. Clemson big here to drop the Jackets to a projected 6-5.  

In Week 13, they have a BYE

In the season finale, 11/29 vs. Georgia: L
 
While this is a rivalry game, this won’t be a rout. Besides, GT got off  to a 20-point lead last season in Athens, before eventually losing in overtime. While the Bulldogs don’t have Aaron Murray under center anymore, their defense should be more than enough to handle the option attack. UGa wins this one to end GT’s regular season at 6-.

My prediction on the Game vs. CANES:

We’ve beaten the Jackets 5 straight times, and I see nothing different after this one. Look for Duke to have a monster game on the ground, and the D shutting down the Triple Option of theirs. This is a game we win and win easily in Atlanta.
 
In Part 7 of the 2014 series, I will talk about the Cincinnati Bearcats, our opponent on October 11^th at Sun Life Stadium.

Part 5 of the 12 part 2014 Miami Hurricane Opponent Video Series - Duke 9/27

2014 Duke Football Preview

In Part 5 of the 2014 12 part opponent video series. I’m going to talk a little about the Duke Blue Devils, our opponent on Sept 27^th at Sun Life Stadium.

Lets first look at their Talent:

Where do you start with Duke? While they might not have the best talent in the world, they find ways to win. They mix the run and pass as good as anyone in the ACC. While they’re not on the level with a FSU or Clemson, their balance offensively is very good. At QB, Anthony Boone is back and he’ll have to be healthy this year because they lost Connette (transferred to Fresno). They do have back Sophomore Thomas Sirk. Sirk is very good athlete who, if he stays healthy, could fill a void left by Connette’s departure. Understand this, this is Boone's offense, if not the entire team, meaning Cut and his new OC, Scottie Montgomery, are going to have to try and keep Boone’s mindset on the here and now. He needs to cut down on the picks which were high last year. 

In the WR core, they have this guy named Jamison Crowder. All he did last year was have 108 receptions for 1,360 yards. He’s just the latest in a long line of Cut offenses to shatter records. He’s also the next Duke receiver to be an All-American candidate. Even though Brandon Braxton is gone, when you factor is Crowder's return, along with a healthy influx of underclassmen talent, you have a WR corp that one of the better ones in the ACC. At TE, they have back a 2^nd team All-ACC in Braxton Deaver (46 for 600). He will be out early in Fall Camp, but he will be one to be dealt with in Cut’s offense. With Braxton graduated, his role in the slot, will be filled by Junior Max McCaffrey (26 for 298), who's steady, and he’ll push Senior Isaac Blakeney (19 for 244) to the outside, where his size could be a useful tool. When you add a 2^nd tier of receivers like Sophomores Johnell Barnes and Ryan Smith, as well as true freshman Trevon Lee, and you can really do some damage stretching the field, which would be huge for Boone's production. This group is very solid and dangerous.

Where they’ll take the biggest hit here is on the O-Line, where they lose two of the most experienced, battle-tested and awarded linemen in the history of their program in RT Perry Simmons and LG Dave Harding. However, they do have three starters coming back in Takoby Cofield at LT, Laken Tomlinson at RG and C Matt Skura. Their OL will be fine. Even with Harding gone, they have back Junior Lucas Patrick, who can step up and produce. The only weakness would be at RT where, you have a battle between Sophomores Tanner Stone and Casey Blaser, and throw in RS Freshman Sterling Korona, and that could be a cause for concern.  That competition will draw eyeballs; however, the most important player on their line is Cofield on the blind side. While Tomlinson is a clear-cut All-ACC pick, the key to their success is the blind side protection being very strong and consistent.

Defensively, they did lose some big names like Kenny Anunike, Sydney Sarmiento, and Justin Foxx, However, they are still loaded with seniors and experienced juniors along the defensive line. The starting lineup here won’t be determined for a few weeks, expect to have five seniors in their two-deep, including three of their four DEs. Look for Seniors Dezmond Johnson and Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo to be starting in 2014, with the latter seemingly set for a very productive year as the full-time starter. Ones to watch, I suspect are Senior Jonathan Jones and Junior Kyler Brown, who moves to the DL from LB, and could be one to deal with in certain situations. Even though Sarmiento is gone, they will be better stopping the run: You have Jamal Bruce producing at the point of attack, Carlos Wray is one that could wreak havoc, and A.J. Wolf has played some key snaps in reserve. They have an impressive young core of linemen even if both true freshmen wear a redshirt as rookies. When you look at the interior of their line, they might have depth that could be the best they’ve had in Cut's tenure. The issue up front is the pass rush.

At LB, they play a 4-2-5 set, and in the spring, that took a major hit when Kelby Brown's tore his ACL for the 2^nd time in his career ending his season. That loss is going to take a big hit on their D. Finding someone to step into Brown’s shoes isn’t going to be easy. It would have to start with Junior Deion Williams, but needs to include Senior C.J. France and a handful of underclassmen, which includes RS Freshmen Dominic McDonald and Chris Holmes. The latter (Holmes) is set to spend his first year behind WS LB David Helton, who had 133 tackles in 2013, and himself a likely all-league selection and the new leader of the front six. While Helton is a nice player who will produce, he’s not the player Brown is.

As for their secondary, it’ll be up to how two new starters, both sophomores do, and true sophomores to boot in Bryon Fields and Breon Borders, Oh, by the way, they’ll be asked to step in at CB as their starter from 2013 have graduated in Ross Cockrell and Garett Patterson. You might question it at first, but look deeper; Fields and Borders were significant and irreplaceable parts of last year's defense. They came up big and stepped into the lineup right away and produced. Also, don’t be shocked if they use sophomore DeVon Edwards (64 tackles, 3 interceptions) in a Cockrell-like role, and move him around the whole secondary. But look for Edwards to be a majority of the time on the back end of the 4-2-5, sharing space with sophomore Deondre Singleton (63 tackles) and junior Jeremy Cash (121 tackles, 4 interceptions). Cash is an All-American. The thing is, Duke has the talent and the athletes back here. They are not to be taken lightly at all here. They’re young to boot.

On Special teams, they are very good, even though they had off years. Monday is an All-American Punter, and Maritin is an All-ACC Kicker. You have back Jamison Crowder and Edwards, and you have one of the better ST units in the ACC.

Next, I want to talk about the Coaching:

What can you say about David Cutcliffe? What this man has done to turn Duke around is unbelievable. He gets the most out of the talent he has. This guy has won everywhere he’s gone (Tennessee, Ole Miss, and now Duke).

Now, to their 2014 Schedule:

Off a 10-4 record in 2013 and a Coastal Division title, Duke in 2014 will not sneak up on anyone this year. Let’s break the Blue Devils schedule down.

In their opener, Duke gets Elon at home. Now, Elon is what Duke used to be — a football program most people do not realize even exists. There are perhaps 6,000 students at tiny Elon University, also located in North Carolina. They are in the FCS and playing in the Colonial Athletic Association. They’re breaking in a new Head Coach in Rich Skrosky, who comes over from Ball State. How far Duke has come that it now has cupcake games like this to start with. Duke wins here easily.

In Week 2, another tune-up game for the Blue Devils, as they make the trip down to Troy, Alabama to take on the Troy Trojans. While, the Trojans are a nice team from the Sun Belt Conference, and gave Duke Fits last year, they will not defeat the Blue Devils this year.  Duke wins comfortably here.

In week 3, the Blue Devils are back home, to take on Kansas and Charlie Weis. Weis is on the hot seat in Lawrence, and they are still rebuilding. It’ll be a while before they’re a .500 or better team. They haven’t won on the road since 2009. Won’t happen in this one either. Duke wins this one. 

In week 4, they’re home again, this time to face the Tulane Green Wave. Here’s interesting tidbit here about the Green Wave. They have a legally blind player, who’s a freshman long-snapper, and he's good at it. The problem is that he doesn’t play where it needs the most help: On O. CJ’s boys won’t be able to hang with the Blue Devils for 4 quarters here. Duke is just too much for Tulane here and gets the win to improve to a projected 4-0. 

In week 5, they open ACC play with a trip to Miami Gardens to take on the Hurricanes. In last year’s loss, we didn’t have Duke at all. This will be a shootout. In the end, we have payback on our minds and I believe the D finds a way to pull it out for us over Duke.

In Week 6, they have a BYE, and coming off the BYE in Week 7, they’re in Atlanta to face GT. However, note that this is not the same Tech team that demolished Duke last year. They lost a main cog in QB Vad Lee and much of their O. You could see Crowder have a field day against that porous Tech D. Duke bounces back and gets revenge for last year’s beat down by GT.

In Week 8, they host UVa, who are just awful, and Mike London’s seat will already be blistering hot at this point and it won’t cool here after this one.  Duke wins BIG here.

In Week 9, they have their 2^nd BYE, and in Week 10 off the BYE, they make the trip up to Heinz Field in Pittsburgh to take on the Pitt Panthers, in a rematch of a classic shootout the Panthers won 58-55 last year in Durham. With Pitt’s QB Tom Savage now gone, it won’t be the shootout it was last year, and Duke is vastly improved at this point defensively. Give it to Duke on the road here.

In Week 11, they’re on the road again on a Thursday Night, a short week, at Syracuse. The Orange were inconsistent at year ago. While Syracuse is building something for down the road, they don’t have enough weapons to beat the Blue Devils on this night. Its Duke’s road finale and this is a game the Blue Devils win comfortably.

In Week 12, they’re back home for the final stretch of games at Wallace-Wade Stadium, starting with VT. For years, VT had their way with the Blue Devils, but that changed with last year’s win in Blacksburg. I know under to underestimate Frank Beamer and Bud Foster, but they just lost too many weapons on D and Logan Thomas is gone, and there’s no go to guy on VT’s O. Duke’s passing game is rolling here. I can Duke winning this one by 10-14 points in this one.

In Week 13, they host Carolina on ESPN on a Thursday night, and it's not a basketball game! If Duke were to win this game, it would make a major statement that Duke is legit and not a one-hit wonder. It’s another short week for the Blue Devils here. Carolina wants that Victory Bell back and wants to erase the sting of the Blue Devils winning the Coastal on their field. As much as Carolina’s QB Marquise Williams wants to the chance to prove he's something special, at the end of the day, Duke will be again a little too much for the Tar Heels. Duke gets the win over UNC.

In the season finale, they host Wake. While the Deacons are awful, new coach Dave Clawson will make sure they get better each year. However, with a lot on the line, and it being Senior Day, and off a projected big win over an arch-rival 9 days earlier, there will be no letdown here. Duke wins handily to finish 11-1.

My prediction on the Game vs. CANES:

This is a payback game for last year’s embarrassment in Durham. It’s easily the low point in the Golden era. We want to badly pay Duke back for that. Off a projected big win in Lincoln, and given what they did last year to us up there, there will be ZERO letdowns for this one. I think we’re going to win this one and the D will make a key play late to seal the win.

In Part 6 of the 2014 series, I will talk about the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, our opponent on October 4^th up in Atlanta at Bobby Dodd Stadium.