Part 10 of 12 part CANE 2012 opponent series

In Part 10 of this series, we're going to take a look at the 2012 Virginia Cavaliers. They are led by Mike London, who will be entering his 3rd year in Charlottesville. They went 8-4 in 2011, losing to Auburn in the Chik-Fil-A bowl after going 4-8 in his 1st year in 2010. 

When you look at the turnaround of this Cavalier team, its not hard to figure out that this team is only going to get better and better and inside Virginia, the Cavaliers are becoming more and more of a force in recruiting there. They're going after top players from the big boys of the BCS conferences, it includes Penn State, their opponent on 9/8 at home. They're going to be dangerous for years.

The 2012 edition is not going to sneak up on anyone. This team is much better overall and they will be a contender again in the Coastal. Offensively, they get Junior QB Michael Rocco (6'3" 225) returning. In 2011, he had 2,671 passing yards, however, he had 13 TDs and 12 picks. He's an accurate QB (61% completion rate in 2011), but if the Cavaliers want to get to the next level, the  interceptions must come down. If he struggles, they have two other QBs that can step up right away in Sophomores David Watford (6'1" 200) or incoming Alabama transfer Phillip Sims (6'2" 215 and is eligible immediately) and could make things a bit more interesting to watch. Their OC Bill Lazor isn't a coach that relies only on the passing game, he's more a balanced type of coach. That's where Senior RB Perry Jones (5'8" 195) comes into play here, in 2011, he was 85 yards short of 1,000 yards (915). When you see the impact Lazor has had on their offense, consider this, from 2010 to 2011, their running game was more efficient as they increase their yards per game from 139 in 2010, to 162 last year. In the passing game, Kris Burd is gone (undrafted FA who signed with the NY Jets), however, they will get potent weapons back in Junior WRs Dominique Terrell (5'11" 170) and Sophomore Darius Jennings (5'11" 170), both of whom were heavily recruited by Penn State, but will have to step up with Burd now gone. When you add in Freshman Canaan Severin (6'2" 210), the potential is there, however, the actual production is spotty at best. Their TEs are very raw: Senior Paul Freedman (6'6" 265) and Jeremiah Mathis (6'3" 245) had just a combined a 71% completion rate in 2011 in limited action.

 

Their O-Line will have some key players back while losing others. First, three key linemen who had a combined 88 career starts are gone, (that includes all-ACC guard, and four-year starter, Austin Pasztor [drafted 4th overall by the CFL's Edmonton Eskimos]). The good news here is that but three others are back in 2012. One of those back are 2nd team all-ACC tackle Senior Oday Aboushi [6'6" 310]). The three that do return have a combined 58 career starts.

Defensively, though, might have some issues in 2012 as only 5 starters are back from the 2011 team, including 3 from their front 7, and both DTs Matt Conrath (undrafted FA to St. Louis) and Nick Jenkins (Graduation), who vs the run, were tough to block. Trying to fill those shoes are Senior Will Hill (6'4" 280) and Justin Renfrow (6'6" 310), who the staff believes can be very good on the interior.  Hill has some experience on the line and in 2011, was in their rotation and was actually better stats wise than Jenkins. He had 7 TFLs and knocked down 2 passes. There's promise on the edges here with DEs Junior Jake Snyder (6'4" 270), Senior Bill Schautz (6'4" 265) and Brent Urban (6'7" 280),  these three combined for 11 TFLs; with 9 of those coming with just 31 tackles from Schautz and Urban.  They will miss Cam Johnson (who went to San Francisco in the 7th round of the NFL Draft). He was a go for broke type of player (He had just 22.5 tackles, with 11 of those which were behind the line of scrimmage), and it looks like Johnson's replacement is going to be the same type of player. They have two true freshmen, who the staff has high hopes for from day one: DE Eli Harold (6'4" 225) and Michael Moore (6'4" 265).

 

On to the LB position, they have a pretty good group here. Senior Middle linebacker Steve Greer (6'2" 230) had 6 TFLs, and broke up 4 in 2011. Also returning here are Seniors LaRoy Reynolds (6'2" 230) who had 8 TFLs and is a player that never gives up on a play from the weak side, Ausar Walcott (6'4" 240) and Sophomore Henry Coley (6'2" 235) showed potential in backup duty, and they have a four-star freshman coming in Kwontie Moore (6'2" 250). In 2011, they had a very good D-Line to support them, that might not be the case in 2012, but their LBs should be enough to offset the losses up front. The staff is very high on true Freshman LB Kwontie Moore (6'2" 250). This guy could end up being one of the best to ever come out of their program.

 

Now to the secondary. Chase Minnifield (undrafted FA signed by Washington) and both of their starters at Safety from 2011 are gone, so they will regress, let's make no mistake about that. However, they get Sophomore CB Demetrious Nicholson (5'11" 170) back, and in 2011, lived up to the hype of a four-star player coming out of High School. He had two picks, and broke up another eight passes, and not to mention that he had two TFLs. When opponents went to his side, he made them pay. He had 51.5 tackles, Now that Minnefield is gone, he's going to have to step up his game. After that, its very thin experience wise. They get  fellow sophomores Brandon Phelps (6' 175) and Drequan Hoskey (6' 175) back, Phelps and Hoskey competed for the other starting spot opposite Nicholson. Fellow Sophomore Anthony Harris (6'1" 185) was the team leader among the other returnees with just 10.0 tackles in 2011, They get Sophomore safety Pablo Alvarez (6'3" 205) back after missing all of 2011 with an injury. This is by far, the biggest question mark here. 

 

At least, until you see how horrible their special teams were in 2011. They have to replace their kicker, punter and kickoff return specialist. There's going to be a dropoff here as well. 

 

This team doesn't back down from a fight and 2012 will be no different. They get a Penn State team that is in shambles, at home and then has to go to Fort Worth to take on a very good TCU team. In league play, they avoid FSU and Clemson, until Charlotte, if they get that far. They have to go Atlanta to play GT. If they beat TCU on the road, they could be 9-0 before we roll into town on November 10th, which could have major BCS implications for both teams. That VT game in Blacksburg will be huge potentially. In the end though, my prediction for Virginia in 2012 is 9-3. 

 

In Part 11 of the series, the focus will be on a team that might just win the Big East this year and that's the South Florida Bulls.