Florida State Preview

Its finally here. Gameday vs FSU. Folks, I'm going to make no delusions here. This is an outstanding football team we're facing tonight. When you look at the numbers, you'll see why.

National Ranks in parenthesis, some, of not most of them is ugly to look at.

Total Offense vs Total Defense
CANES 437.6 ypg (42nd) vs FSU 222 ypg allowed (3rd)
FSU 530.6 ypg (12th) vs CANES 506.6 ypg allowed (117th)

Scoring Offense vs Scoring Defense
CANES 27.9 ppg (T-62nd {Rice}) vs FSU 11.6 ppg allowed (4th)
FSU 46 ppg (6th) vs CANES 32.3 ppg allowed (93rd)

Rushing Offense vs Rushing Defense
CANES 140.8 ypg (86th) vs FSU 74.9 ypg allowed (5th)
FSU 233.1 ypg (16th) vs CANES 253.7 ypg allowed (118th)

Passing Offense vs Passing Defense
CANES 296.7 ypg (24th) vs FSU 147.1 ypg allowed (6th)
FSU 297.4 ypg (23rd) vs CANES 252.9 ypg allowed (86th)

Pass Efficiency vs Pass Efficiency Defense 
CANES 127.4 (81st) vs FSU 90.9 (3rd)
FSU 173.4 (5th) vs CANES 138.1 (82nd)

TFLs Allowed vs TFLs
CANES 4.6 (T-24th {Michigan St.}) vs FSU 6.3 (T-45th {Fresno St., Ohio})
FSU 5 (T-41st {Northern Illinois, Toledo, TCU, BC, South Carolina}) vs CANES 4.9 (T-97th {Ohio St.})

Sacks Allowed vs Sacks
CANES 1.14 pg (T-22nd {Northern Illinois}) vs FSU 2.4 pg (T-34th {Arkansas, Missouri, Wisconsin})
FSU 1.57 pg (T-48th {Utah St., Vegas, Wisconsin, NW}) vs CANES 1 pg (T-107th {Arizona, Kansas, Troy})

3rd Down O vs 3rd Down D
CANES 44.4% (45th) vs FSU 23% (Leads Nation)
FSU 44.3% (46th) vs CANES 44.2% (89th)

Time of Possession
CANES 25:40 pg (117th)
FSU 29:37 pg (66th)

Turnover Margin
CANES +2 (.29 pg) (T-44th {Cal, Michigan St., South Carolina, UCLA})
FSU +1 (.14 pg) (T-55th {Northern Illinois, Rice, VT, Ole Miss})

Net Punting
CANES 34.35 avg (101st)
FSU 34.7 avg (96th)

Punt Returns vs Punt Return D
CANES 7 ypg (T-77th {Fresno St., Arizona St.}) vs FSU 6.67 ypg allowed (51st)
FSU 14.8 ypg (14th) vs CANES 18 ypg allowed (116th)

Kick Returns vs Kick Return D
CANES 24.4 (29th) vs FSU 15.9 allowed (6th)
FSU 29.6 (3rd) vs CANES 14.3 allowed (2nd)

For us to win tonight, it's going to take a near perfect game to do it. In that, I mean, no turnovers, finish drives with 7s instead of 3s. Taking advantage of short fields and making FSU have to go 80+ yards per drive. We have to stay out of 3rd and long situations, especially against a defense that leads the nation in 3rd down Defense. We have to get the crowd in the game early and often and the way you do that is with big plays. It wouldn't shock me if we try to hit a big play early if its there.

This will not be the blowout many CANE fans suspect. This is a big game from a recruiting perspective. There will a lot of recruits at this game tonight. If this is a replay of the 2010 game in which we got blown out 45-17 by the Noles, recruiting in South Florida would be set back 2-3 years if not more, that's how devastating it would be if a replay of 2010 happens tonight. Matthew Thomas from Booker T would be gone to FSU for sure. Denver Kirkland would be gone to FSU as well.

In fact, here is a list of players that will be at the game tonight:
CANES Commits in Bold
2013:
ATH Ray Lewis, 5-10, 190, Lake Mary Prep (Fla.),–Commit/Official Visit
LB Jermaine Grace, 6-1, 205, Miramar (Fla.)
OL Denver Kirkland, 6-5, 335, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.
LB, Matthew Thomas, 6-3, 205, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.
TE Jeremy Kerr, 6-6, 255, St. Petersburg (Fla.)–Commit

2014:
WR Ermon Lane, 6-2, 172, Homestead (Fla.)
LB Richard Yeargin III, 6-3, 210, Hollywood (Fla) Chaminade-Madonna
RB Sony Michel, 5-11, 195, Plantation (Fla.) American Heritage
K Christian Pereira, 6-2, 185, Orlando (Fla.) Timber Creek
DE Chad Thomas, 6-4. 225, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.
ATH Travis Rudolph, 6-0, 175, West Palm Beach (Fla.) Cardinal Newman–Commit
CB Nigel Patten, 5-9, 165, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.

2015:
ATH Jordan Cronkrite, 5-11, 185, Miami (Fla.) Westminster
ATH Tim Irvin, 5-9, 182, Miami (Fla.) Westminster
RB Jacques Patrick, 6-2, 215, Orlando (Fla.) Timber Creek

That's why the importance of keeping it close tonight is vital. Look at the talent here, we can ill afford to get blown out tonight at home to FSU for the 2nd time in 3 years because most of that talent would bolt to FSU or UF. 

Realistically though, I see this game being like 1998 in the Orange Bowl (RIP). FSU gets a nice sized lead, only to have us come back and make a game of it. However, I think FSU will make more key plays than we do and they come out with the victory.

My prediction: FSU 31 CANES 20.