Part 7 of the 12 part 2014 Miami Hurricane Opponent Video Series - Cincinnati 10/11

2014 Cincinnati Football Preview

In Part 7 of the 2014 12 part opponent video series, I’m going to talk a little about the Cincinnati Bearcats, our opponent on Oct 11^th at Sun Life Stadium. 

Lets first look at their Talent:

This might a team that has a real special season, provided that Gunner Kiel is consistent and accurate and their Defense stays consistent all year with a new DC in charge. Kiel was on the scout team. If he’s the player that was the five-star out of Indiana, then this offense is going to one teams would not want to face. The backup will be JC transfer Jarred Evans. The old starter Munchie Legaux is back for his 5^th year after suffering a severe knee injury last September. Their running game is strong again as their top three rushers return in Hosey Williams, Ralph David Abernathy and Tion Green. Their ok at the WR position with Seniors Shaq Washington and Chris Moore returning. Washington is an excellent possession receiver who had 78 catches last year. Their O-Line gets three of their starters back in 2014, which includes tackle Eric Lefeld (6-6 309).

Defensively, they are outstanding. In spite of being 9^th nationally in Total D, they still canned Art Kaufman and replaced him with Hank Hughes. Hughes will continue to run the 4-3 defense that was implemented last year. When you look at their D, the core is at the LB position. They get back both Nick Temple and Jeff Luc. Temple had 80 tackles in 2013, Luc finished with 43. On their D-Line, they have back Silverberry Mouhon, who finished with 9 ½ sacks. In the secondary, they have back Safety Zach Edwards, who ended the season with 73 tackles and CB Howard Wilder, who had 35 tackles. If the LB position needed any more depth, they added former Northwestern transfer Eric Wilson which will allow Luc to move to the Middle LB position.

Next, I want to talk about the Coaching:

Wherever Tommy Tuberville has been, he’s won (Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas Tech, and now Cincinnati). This will be year 2 in the Queen City for Tubs, and gets the most out of what he has and develops that talent. We’ll see how he does in Year 2. 

 

Now, to their 2014 Schedule:

Cincinnati went 9-4 last season and finished third in the AAC, so let’s break down their 2014 schedule and how it projects to play out:

In their opener, 9/12 – vs. Toledo (WIN)

Their opener is on a Friday Night this year. Toledo will have two games under their belt, which will make this game close for a half, but in the 2^nd half, the Bearcats get it together, work out the kinks, and win this one going away.

In Week 2, 9/20 – vs. Miami-of-Ohio (WIN)

The Redhawks have a new coach in Chuck Martin who comes over from Notre Dame. When people say “Turn things around”, it’ll mean different things to people. In Miami (OH)’s case, it means to have a fighting chance in MAC contests, , they won’t get the Victory Bell, not this year. Cincinnati wins big here.

In week 3, 9/27 – at Ohio State (LOSS)

If Cincinnati is going to have that magical season, this is one of the two games that will determine that. This will be a tough game, in the end, the Buckeyes are at home, and this is a game they don’t lose. Ohio State gets the nod here to drop the Bearcats to a projected 2-1.

In week 4, 10/4 – vs. Memphis (WIN)

Memphis is a team on the rise, and they will be better, they might get caught looking ahead to the game at Miami the following week. Its on a Wednesday Night and Cincy is coming off a projected tough loss vs Ohio State, and they’ll want to get back on the winning track. Cincy the win here in a game that’s closer than people think.

In week 5, 10/11 – at Miami-Fla. (LOSS)

This is Tubs return to Miami for the first time since 1993, when he was the DC here. Understand this: These guys have the weapons to possibly beat the CANES. Given the fact that Miami after this game will have 13 days off before they go to Blacksburg on a Thursday Night, this is the classic trap game. Our secondary had a difficult time against “pro-style” offenses last season (hello, Teddy Bridgewater in Orlando) and we will have been battle tested at this point with projected wins over Louisville, Nebraska and the Duke (the Former two on the road), this will give the Miami D a lot of confidence going into this game. The Hurricanes will still be without their expected starter in Ryan Williams and will likely start a talented, yet inexperienced true freshman (Brad Kaaya) and possibly Jake Heaps (Transfer) under center. The Bearcats will be up for this game, but I think the CANES will match that intensity and find a way to win the one and spoil Tubs’ return to Miami. CANES win this one to drop the Bearcats to 3-2 in this projection.

In Week 6 10/18 – at SMU (Win)

Traveling from Cincinnati to Miami to Cincinnati to Dallas all within a seven-day time period doesn’t sound favorable, and the Bearcats could be set up for a major letdown following a very tough loss to the CANES. That will not happen, Tubs will have them ready to play and they should blast SMU in this one. Cincy bounces back nicely here. 

In Week 7, 10/24 – vs. South Florida (WIN)
After the win vs SMU, the Bearcats are back home to take on the USF Bulls. The Bearcats have too many weapons for USF to overcome here and the Bulls are another 2 years away from really being a force.  Cincinnati wins here handily at home.

In Week 8, 10/31 – at Tulane (WIN)

Yes, its Halloween night, and it can get very crazy in New Orleans that day. While the Green Wave will hang for a little while, in the end, the Bearcats just have too many weapons for the Tulane to overcome here. Cincy gets the win in the Bayou.

In Week 9, they have a BYE

In Week 10 11/13 – vs. East Carolina (Win)

In a game that will likely decide the AAC title, the ECU Pirates come into Nippert for a Thursday Night game. Cincinnati is 2-2 in Thursday night regular season games since 2010, and Tuberville teams are 2-5 in games following a bye week over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati will have been battle-tested with the early games at Ohio State and at Miami, however, that doesn’t mean they can adjust accordingly. While Shane Carden and company should score at will vs a young UC secondary, I think in the end, Cincinnati makes just enough plays at home to win this one in a high scoring affair.

In Week 11, 11/22 – at Connecticut (WIN)

While this will be a physical game, offensively, UConn doesn’t have the firepower to hang with the Bearcats for 4 quarters. Give the nod to Cincinnati here.
In Week 12, 11/29 – at Temple (WIN)

This is a possible trap game. The AAC title should be clinched in this one by the Bearcats. Yes, Temple will be improved, but not enough to hang with Cincinnati for 4 quarters.

In Week 13, 12/6 – vs. Houston (WIN)

Houston was successful in 2013 for its ability to force turnovers, leading the nation with 43 total turnovers gained (25 interceptions, 18 fumbles). Some of those forced turnovers were the difference in tight contests, as the Cougars played seven games in which the outcome was by 10 points or less. They were also remarkably lucky with how many times the cards fell in their favor. It’s going to be extremely difficult to replicate that kind of production this season, especially with the same attacking philosophy. Cincinnati should be able to watch the film and know how to prepare for this one, winning its season finale and heading into the postseason on a three-game winning streak.

My prediction on the Game vs. CANES:

We’ve beaten the Jackets 5 straight times, and I see nothing different after this one. Look for Duke to have a monster game on the ground, and the D shutting down the Triple Option of theirs. This is a game we win and win easily in Atlanta.
 
In Part 8 of the 2014 series, I will talk about the Virginia Tech Hokies, our opponent on October 23^rd (Thursday Night) up in Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, VA.