Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Al's Future and what it will take to survive past 2015

From Barry Jackson's piece this morning in the Herald on Al's future past this season.

Here's what Blake says in reference to the wins Al needs in order to stay past 2015:“is no minimum win total or anything like that. We have to look at the season from a wholistic approach,”

If you reference what Blake said to Jackson a month ago, a key comment here: “Al knows he needs to win. Our guys know we need to win. I know we need to win.”

To me, and this is something Jackson repeats what I've said for months on this here: If we win 9-10 and get to Charlotte on 12/5 for the ACC Championship game, Al survives, pure and simple.

But there are scenarios in which he could stay while accomplishing less that Jackson brings up in the piece, which I would have to disagree with here.

  • What if UM gets to seven or eight wins but the season derails because of major injuries to its best players?
  • What if the Hurricanes start slowly but finish on a significant winning streak?
7 wins won't cut it regardless of injuries. 8 wins might, but a trip to Charlotte for the ACC Championship MUST be a requirement.

This is why its an important year for Al to see major progress here because the UM administration will not hesitate to pull the plug on Al if the season goes South quickly.

As a high-level member of the BOT told Jackson, that buyout on Al’s contract (which runs through Feb. 1, 2020) is no longer going to hold the BOT back from making a move.

Earlier in August, Blake said“What I want to see on field is results, you want to see improvements in all areas.”
Translation: Al needs to beat FSU this year. You cannot go 0-5 vs a bitter rival that has a stranglehold on South Florida recruiting and has a National Championship to boot (2013).

As good as Al's recruiting class is, if he has another down year, that won't give him a mulligan.

“I’m not a big follower of that,” - Blake on oral commitments
Translation: I need for UM to be a force again and start locking down South Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) and if it takes breaking the bank to get a big name to do it, so be it.

A bigger concern would be Sam Bruce, who's the lynchpin of the '16 class. He's said on record that if Al is ousted after this season, he's going bye-bye. That's a key reason why you need to keep some key members of the staff intact for recruiting reasons (Coley, Ice, Art, Baez, Hurlie).

While those in the Ashe Building (i.e. some BOT members) will tell you that Frenk will defer to Blake in reference to Al's future. Don't buy it for one second. If we were to get blasted at home by Nebraska on 9/19 (a BYE week after that game) and/or lose to FSU on 10/10 for 6th straight time (5 on Al's watch), Frenk will get so overwhelmed with emails from angry fans and alums with clout, he will be more involved, as he should here and if we're out of the ACC Coastal race after Halloween night in Durham, Frenk will not hesitate to fire Al either that night or the next morning after the Duke game.

All that being said, Jackson posed this question to former CANE players and several High ranking BOT members: What should be the minimum that Golden should achieve this season for UM to want to go forward with this coaching staff? Some of what they told him are very interesting and I'll give you my translations:
  • “I personally think he needs to win eight games. It’s embarrassing to be as low as six or seven.” - High ranking BOT member who likes to tell his thoughts to the administration.
    • Translation: No more excuses. You need to get the team to Charlotte on 12/5 for ACC title and beat FSU this year.
  • “I think he must start winning nine or 10 games minimum to earn the right to stay. Eight wins isn’t going to satisfy anyone. I’m sorry. That should have been a 9-4 team last year. The talent is obviously better than they’ve showed and something is wrong.”
    • Translation: Get it together, Al and unleash the hounds and stop being so conservative and micromanaging. Let the coaches do their jobs here. Either get to Charlotte or be fired.
  • A UM administrator with some involvement in the school’s athletics program: “If we have another mediocre season and can’t close out games, he’s done. At minimum, you want a winning season and a reasonable bowl opportunity."
    • Translation: We need to playing at least in a NY6 game (excluding Cotton and Orange) this year. The minimum is get to Charlotte as Coastal Champs on 12/5 for ACC title game. No Charlotte means Al, you're fired.
  • "Win the games we’re supposed to win and have a shot at winning the tougher games. We should be beating Virginia, Pittsburgh and Duke; I don’t care how good those schools are becoming.” - Joaquin.
    • Translation: Stop playing down to the competition and dominate the opposition every week like my old teams did back in the late 90s and early 2000s. 
  • “Eight or nine wins. Time is running out. Just getting to a bowl is not good enough. Coaches tell me things are going to change. There were a lot of ‘me’ guys on the team last year but they’re changing the culture.” - Vernon Carey
    • Translation: Stop with the BS, Al. It's time for results because the clock is ticking on your tenure in the Hecht Center Football offices.
  • “They need to win the ACC. That’s what we should expect every year.” - DJ Williams
    • Translation: Getting to Charlotte isn't enough. You need to close the deal and win the ACC title.
  • “A Coastal title. Play in the conference championship. You don’t even need to win it; I just want to brag that we’re in the game. And I would like to see us cater to the strengths of our players.” - Vilma
    • Translation: Let your playmakers make plays. This is the bare minimum of expectations from you, Al. Get to Charlotte as Coastal champs.
  • “Don’t just win the games you are supposed to win. Win games that make a difference. And I want to see them make adjustments at halftime and not have only the other team make adjustments. They get out-coached and they don’t make adjustments, and the biggest adjustment they need to make is putting guys in the right position, in the right place to defend different formations that come up during games. They need to be prepared with situational football. They need to understand football more than they do now. Last year, we didn’t make halftime adjustments on either side of the ball.”- Duane Starks
    • Translation: We need to see you guys dominate opponents like we did back in the day. Also, adjust the game plan if necessary and don't get outcoached in the 2nd half like we
  • “Not only win games, but look good doing it. And beat people you’re not supposed to beat.” - Randal "Thrill" Hill
    • Translation: Have fun, let loose and make a statement while winning, just like we did back in the day.
Each make very strong points here. At the end of the day, the minimum is 9-10 wins and a trip to Charlotte on 12/5 for the ACC title. Anything less than that, and Al is out, possibly after the Duke game if we're 0-4 in the ACC after Halloween.

No comments:

Post a Comment