Sunday, August 11, 2013

2013 Miami Hurricanes 12 part Opponent series - Part 7 (Wake Forest - Oct 26th)

Oct 26th – Wake Forest

In Part 7 of the 12 part 2013 Miami Hurricanes Opponent Series, I’m going to preview the 2013 Wake Forest Demon Deacons, who come to Sun Life Stadium on Oct 26th.

Here’s what you need to know about the Demon Deacons:
They are coached by Jim Grobe (Virginia '75), who’s entering his 12th season in Winston-Salem. His record is 73-74, and he’s the first coach in more than 50 years of Wake Football, to have a career mark this close to .500. You have to go back to Peahead Walker, who went 77-55-6 from 1937-50, to have a someone close to or above .500 in their tenures. Before coming to Wake, he spent six years (1995-2000) at Ohio, going .500 there (33-33-1). Nothing to write home about on the surface, however, you have to consider the circumstances here. Before Grobe’s arrival in Athens, Ohio, the Bobcats won a total of nine games, in six years before he came. After a 1st season of 2-8-1 in 1995, he never again slipped below five wins in the rest of his term there, and that includes an 8-3 record in 1997 and a 7-4 mark in his final season (2000).
The job he’s done at Wake, is nothing short of remarkable. They have finished over .500 five times in his tenure there, and that includes an ACC title in 2006 and at least eight wins in each season from 2006-2008. In 2006, the pundits picked the Deacons to finish last in the conference in the preseason media poll. All the Deacons did was make an FBS-best seven-game improvement over its 4-7 season in 2005. By going 11-3 in ’06, it marked the program's first season with double-digit wins, in their history and just its second ACC championship (only other one being 1970, but didn’t go to a bowl game that season), earning the Demon Deacons a BCS trip to the Orange Bowl, which was their first major bowl game in their history..
If you’re a Wake Forest fan, and I’m sure, there are those that are fans that are reading and watching this video that follow the Demon Deacons, will remember from that magical 2006 season, other than winning the ACC title, was the fact, they demolished FSU 30-0 in Tallahassee. That win was their first road win in the series since 1959. As a result, he was named both the ACC and national coach of the year. Grobe would show that the Deacons weren’t just a one hit wonder, as they would follow that up with a 9-4 finish the next year (2007), giving that program, when you combine that with an eight win season in 2008, that’s 28 victories in a three-year stretch from 2006-2008. To put the job he’s done in Winston-Salem in perspective, the next most successful three-year period was a 19-win stretch from 1944-46. 
As for the here and now, he will have new coaches on his staff this year for the 2nd straight season. He lost two coaches with Tim Duffie going to Oklahoma State in March and WR coach Lonnie Galloway off to Morgantown to assume the same position at WVU back in January. The critics will tell you that these departures believe that Grobe's can’t find good coaching talent. They move OLB coach Derrick Jackson over to the secondary to fill Duffie’s role. They bring in two new hires in  Warren Belin, who takes over Jackson’s old role with the linebackers, and WR coach Taylor Stubblefield. When you look at Belin’s resume, he spent the last two seasons in the same role in the NFL with the Carolina Panthers after being in Athens, GA for a year (2010) and eight years in Nashville with Vanderbilt (2002-2009).
Let’s break down Wake Forest in three categories:

Offensively: You’re going to see them go to more of a run-first type of offense. To emphasize this point, take a look at their last two teams: They threw the ball an average of 442 times; now, look back to their 2005 and 2006 teams. Those two teams combined for 580 pass attempts. The reason they’re going to go back to more of a run-first offense is because of their personnel and Grobe to use it to his advantage. They can’t go head-to-head speed wise with us, FSU, Clemson because they’ll lose that battle every time. Also, by emphasizing the run more, it takes the heat off Senior QB Tanner Price and their OL.
Price is going to have to more as a running QB this year, but not too much more. He’s not a QB that teams have to deal with running wise. When you look at the certain sets and packages Grobe will throw at opponents, the plan is to throw them off-base a bit. Price’s strength is passing, though in 2012, his numbers dropped off dramatically, after a very good 2011 campaign. The question here Is there a balance that can work for them here? What they lack in depth, they make up for it in performance. In 2012, Price averaged only 5.6 yards per attempt, which was one of the worst totals in the FBS. This coming off a 2011 season where he averaged 7.1 yards per pass. Simply put, it’s possible here where he throws the ball only 325 times, instead of 425 times, and makes the offense better because he's doing more with less throwing and getting the backs more yards on the ground.  At worst, he’s a three-year starting quarterback in a league, which is big on QB play.
As for the OL, they were at best: Inconsistent. As their play here was at the heart of their problems offensively in 2012. Let’s go more in depth here about why their O was inconsistent:
1.    Price was harried, hurried and harassed
2.    The backs, such as: Senior Josh Harris (608 yards) and Sophomore Deandre Martin (484 yards) found it very tough to run inside between the tackles and when they went outside, there wasn’t much there either.
Simple solution here: Fix the line, and you fix the offense.
Harris and Martin are going to see the ball a lot more this season, with Grobe focusing more on the running game. One of those backs is going to get the ball over 200 times. After Harris and Martin, the experience there drops off dramatically. How will they use four freshmen back there?. Two of those freshmen are RS (Joshua Wilhite and Dominique Gibson). The former being one the coaches like very much, and the latter, is a converted safety. The other two (John Armstrong and Dezmond Wortham), are in the mix as well. With Wake going back to their roots with the running game, having five backs, doesn’t hurt here.
The passing game is still going to be there, but not as much as in years past. When they do throw, the one that’s had a nice career there is Senior Michael Campanaro (79 receptions for 763 yards) All he’s done in his career was steadily improve each year. As a freshman, he only made 10 catches, however, in the last two years; he’s caught 73 passes each season. The question here is: Where did the passing game in 2012? While Campanaro was consistently his effective self, they don’t have to home-run threat nor the intermediate threat to take the pressure off the running game. They do have Junior Orville Reynolds coming back. Reynolds is a speedier, running back-size receiver with the burst to be the big-play threat there. They have bigger receivers back size wise in Junior Brandon Terry (15 for 290), Sophomore Sherman Ragland III (23 for 247), and Junior Matt James They need to have a player like Reynolds step up and be that other threat to make opposing DCs, have to respect him and not focus too much on Campanaro and their running game. However, that’s not going to be easy as their WR corps being in the bottom half of the ACC. Not Good.
The weakest link here is their O-Line, and has been the case for years now. However, with them going back to more of a run-first offense, it’ll take the heat off them a bit because they’ll be doing less, and won't be asked to match up athletically with the ACC's speedy defensive linemen. This unit will benefit the most from Grobe's turn-back-the-clock offensive shift. They have another boost with the fact that their staff decided not to unilaterally redshirt every freshman: They signed four linemen in February, and it's entirely possible that the entire group works into the two-deep if given the opportunity. We’ll have to wait and see how that plays out.

Defensively: Their D will be good enough to give teams like us, Clemson, and FSU, and those three teams right there, will tell how Wake’s season goes. If they want to take that next step, they have to be more detail oriented on this side of the ball. They have to do a better job on 3rd downs, and have more of a pass rush. They do have a lot of experience coming back, which has produced in the past and they have All-ACC talent here, but they need to really get it together before their opener vs Presbyterian on August 29th. There's reason for optimism.
They run a 3-4 defense and the leader of that D-Line is Senior nose tackle Nikita Whitlock (51 tackles, 5.5 for loss), a two-time All-ACC selection. He’s only 6’ and 250 lbs, but don't let the size – or lack thereof – fool you. He use his leverage and technique to make opposing O-Linemen shake their heads. Here’s they have a lot of experience; with Whitlock being joined by two Senior DEs Kristopher Redding (30 tackles, 3.5 for loss) and Zach Thompson (52 tackles, 5.5 for loss), and depth wise: have Sophomores Tylor Harris (22 tackles, 4.5 for loss) and Desmond Floyd, as well as half-dozen true and redshirt freshmen. This is going to be a front 3 to be dealt with.
An area where production must be better in 2013 is at LB, especially with more of a pass rush. They finished 2012 just inside the top 60 nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss. Its going to be up to Junior Zachary Allen (42 tackles) to step up and be the leader of this core. Questions here are:
·         Who will help Wake replace Joey Ehrmann (Graduation) as their hybrid end-outside linebacker?
·         Can Allen deliver?
If he (Allen) can’t, then look for them to have to turn to a RS Freshman like Kevis Jones, who was very good in spring drills. They have Senior Mike Olson (78 tackles) coming back, but he will move over to the weak side, which opens the door at MLB for sophomore Brandon Chubb to step up and produce. The leader of this group and you can make an argument here for the defense as a whole is Senior Justin Jackson (81 tackles, 4.0 sacks). This guy who mans the strong side and perhaps the team's top pure edge rusher has a motor that never stops. This entire group can run, hit and cover.
The secondary has to improve off of a disappointing 2012 season: They failed to seize on the opportunity to build off of a pretty good 2011 campaign, by allowing more than an additional yard per attempt and nearly 40 additional yards per game. As with the rest of the D, their decline against the pass can be tied to injuries in their Defensive backfield; If they stay healthy, this unit will be better and their performance will be much stronger. No more of this being the case than at CB, where junior Merrill Noel (33 tackles) only started 8 games last year after having a very strong Freshman year; when he healthy and confident, he’s as good as any cornerback in the ACC. Joining him at CB is junior Kevin Johnson (58 tackles, 3.5 for loss), who started all 12-games last season, but look for their staff to give more looks to Sophomores Allen Ramsey and James Ward, especially if the latter gets loses out on a starting role at SS. That's the lone position up for debate: They have A.J. Marshall back at the FS spot, but they need to find a replacement for Chibuikem Okoro (Graduation).
Special teams: Actually Sophomore Chad Hedlund, will make their production here better, because last year’s kicker, Jimmy Newman, was just horrendous. They also bring back Sophomore punter Alexander Kinal, who’s a reigning all-ACC pick, and they get back most of their personnel who contributed in the return game in 2012, if that's a good thing. The return game isn’t the issue here, the biggest issue is their coverage. They allowed four touchdown returns last year. Hidden yards allowed killed them.
In Closing, overall, this team brings experience back and they should produce here. However, when you look at their schedule, they have to go to Clemson and come down to Sun Life to play us. They do host FSU on Nov 9th and after a BYE week, host Duke in the ACC finale, before closing the 2013 season at Vanderbilt the next week.  They’re not a strong team, but Grobe gets the most out what he has. At the end of the day, I’m going to go with 8-4 for the Demon Deacons in 2013.

In part 8 of the series, I’m going to talk about a team that is a dark horse to maybe win the whole thing and that’s Florida State. 

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