Nov
16th - @Duke
In Part 10 of the 12 part 2013 Miami Hurricanes Opponent
Series, we’ll talk about the 2013 Duke Blue Devils, our opponent up in Durham,
NC on November 16th.
Here’s what you need to know about the Blue Devils:
They are coached by David Cutcliffe, who while 21-40 in his five years
in Durham, he improved the Blue Devils win total in each of his first two
seasons there, putting the foundation in place to be going bowling in 2010, but
at that didn’t happen. Even worse, in 2011, they only won three games. Think
about this, Cut’s 15 wins in his first four years was the program's best
stretch since the days of Steve Spurrier. Then in 2012, was finally a bowl
game, making Cut’s hard work pay off. He and the staff has the belief into creating
a winning football program from the bottom up. Think Bill Snyder back in the
90s, building Kansas State into a power after years of futility.
In his career, which
includes parts of seven seasons at Ole Miss, his record is 65-67. Though you
look at the record, and you think, OK, he was a so-so coach. Look deeper and
you see about the job he did in Oxford developing one future Super Bowl winning
QB in Eli Manning. He’s best-known for being a long time assistant in Knoxville
with Tennessee, where he spent 19 seasons as an assistant. That started way
back in 1982, when he started his career being a part-time assistant, and
continued through 1998 and along the way, developed another Super Bowl winning
QB, that would be Eli’s older brother, Peyton. When he was canned from from Ole
Miss in 2004, he took a year off due to health issues; he was supposed to be on
Charlie Weis' staff as the first quarterbacks coach at Notre Dame, before his
health issues forced him to step down before the start of that season. In 2006,
he came back to Knoxville for a two-year stint before being tabbed as the boss
in Durham.
This man’s resume with Tennessee is impeccable. He spent six seasons as their TE coach, (1983-88), one season as their RB coach (1989) and three being the QB coach (1990-92) before being finally getting to run the whole offense as OC, where he earned his stripes and being recognized as one of the best play-callers in the country. When he went to Oxford for his first HC stint, he finished a winning record every year for his first five years, which included a 10-win 2003 season that was highlighted by a SEC West co-championship and a Cotton Bowl win. Cut can coach, there’s no doubt about that. To succeed at Duke, it takes a special kind of coach and that’s something Cut is.
Let’s break down the Blue Devils:
Offensively: Yes, they will change their style of offense this year, from the
pass-heavy system led by Sean Renfree, who graduated and was drafted in the 7Th
Round by the Atlanta Falcons, to more of a zone-read offense that will be led
by Junior quarterback Anthony Boone, who was Renfree’s backup the past two
seasons. He’s done ok under center, albeit with little notice, and will clearly
be their starter this year. He clinched that with a strong performance back in
the Spring. The question here is: Is he the right fit for the zone-read offense
Cut wants to employ this year? We'll see in August and September. Some
would say that the better fit for zone-read would have been RS Freshman Thomas
Sirk, however, an Achilles injury back in the Spring cast doubt on whether he
would play this year. What does that mean? It means there’s a possibility that
in this offense, Junior Brandon Connette might be pressed into duty at QB,
which in that scenario, you take away a player that can hurt you other ways.
By going to more of a run-first, balanced offense, this will give more chances for returning
backs like Senior Juwan Thompson (352 yards), Junior Josh Snead (496 yards) and
Sophomore Jela Duncan (553 yards). Those three will get the bulk of the action
there, but the running game should roll more through Duncan and Thompson, than
with Snead, with Thompson having an edge due to the fact that he’s a better pass
protector. However, another option might be Connette, If this offense wants to
widen the field on first and second down, it would be imperative to put Snead
and Duncan next to Boone in the zone read. That would keep opposing defenses on
their toes more, especially vs the run. Here’s something about the Duke offense
in 2012: They ran the ball about 400 times last season, averaging 3.71 yards
per carry, and in 2013, those numbers will only go up.
As for the passing game, they lost Conner Vernon, to graduation and the NFL (being signed as an UDFA by the Oakland Raiders), Here’s what they miss in Vernon, he scored the GW TD vs UNC, however, they do get back a very valuable piece in Junior Jamison Crowder (76 receptions for 1,074 yards), who’s an All-ACC-level WR. While Crowder was in the mix last year, their #1 target was Vernon. When you look at the 2012 season Crowder had, it was a big time season there as a secondary option, though in name only. The numbers he had is more for a #1 target. The rest of that core is built on their size. Six of their weapons are over 6'2”, and when you count their two tight ends, there are going to be some mismatches in the slot that Cut will exploit. When you have back Juniors Isaac Blakeney (32 for 290) and Jack Wise, as well as Senior Brandon Braxton, Sophomore Max McCaffrey and RS Freshman Anthony Nash, with the latter, being the one talent, their staff is high on, Duke has some potent weapons to make things very tough for secondaries in the ACC. The main target here will be clearly Crowder.
When you look at their
O-Line, it’s pretty solid. However, the Center position is the question mark
might here, however, RS Sophomore Matt Skura might have put those concerns at
Center to bed, after Brian Moore's departure to graduation (Signed as UDFA by
the Buffalo Bills) by having a strong spring. Even if Skura gets off to a slow
start, they’ll still be able to have steady starters at both guard spots (Senior Dave Harding on the left side, and Junior
Laken Tomlinson on the right). The strength of this line is in pass protection,
and that’s because of consistently strong play by Junior LT Takoby Cofield and Senior
RT Perry Simmons. Both players are all-ACC contenders. On the strong side, they’re
going to integrate alternating underclassmen like RS Freshman Casey Blaser into
the mix in certain situations. The pass protection is very strong, the question
here is, can they be very good run blockers as well?
Defensively: Their back seven took a hit to injuries and/or Graduation. So they will have to break in a new group there. For DC Jim Knowles, this will be the highest priority this season. They really need a full and healthy season from Senior Kenny Anunike (44 tackles, 5.0 sacks). He seems fully recovered from his 2nd knee injury of his college career. The 1st knee injury, cut down his 2011 season. The question here is: What can Anunike do for their line up front? When he’s healthy, this defense gets an All-ACC end capable of an effective pass rush and having double-digit sack seasons, and commanding double and triple teams, which opens lanes for his fellow linemen into the opposing backfield. As Anunike's goes, so goes their D in 2013 and whether or not they make a repeat bowl appearance.
The bulk of their pass
rush comes from their DE’s (Anunike and fellow Senior Justin Foxx {46 tackles,
4.5 sacks}). They’ll get the bulk of the attention, and in turn, it’ll open up
the interior of their line to do the damage. DT’s like Jamal Bruce, Sydney
Sarmiento (28 tackles), Carlos Wray, Steven Ingram and RS Freshmen Sam Marshall
and A.J. Wolf would be the beneficiaries there. There are two concerns with the
Line:
1. These interior linemen don’t
push.
a. They are big guys.
i. but they can’t beat single blocks
ii. And they don’t wreak
havoc
2. They need to have at
least another pair of DE’s that can wreak havoc off the edge
a. Preferably one or two
pure edge rushers.
b. That’s something they
don’t have right now.
They do have freshmen and sophomores who can fill that role very nicely.
As for the LBs, they have three starters looking to fill two spots. Two are named Brown, so you can expect some rotation there on the weak side. One of the Brown’s: Kyler, will be the full time MLB as getting two starts in 2012 at that position. On the outside, there’s another Brown: a healthy Kelby, who might be able to give a push to Junior C.J. France (60 tackles) for a starting spot, or maybe win the job outright. If healthy, Kelby Brown could give this unit a much need boost as they shift from a 4-2-5 to a 4-3 set.
As for the Secondary, this area took the biggest hit due to graduation: They lose three starters off the 2012 unit in:
·
CB Lee Butler (Graduation)
·
S Walt Canty (Graduation)
·
S Jordan Byas (Graduation)
They do get back though,
Senior CB Ross Cockrell, who will be an All-ACC contender, even though the
number might not say so. They’re going to stay away from his side. That means
Senior Garett Patterson, Sophomores Jared Boyd and James Cockey, as well as RS
Freshman DeVon Edwards and Freshman Evrett Edwards, who are the many contenders
angling for a starting spot on the outside, all need to step up when called
upon and produce, making the QB think twice of throwing to that side. They
believe the one with the best potential is Edwards, who enrolled early in
school, However, you have Patterson moving over from WR to CB. Boyd, when
healthy, can contribute and have good numbers. Back to Edwards for a moment, he
spent last season adjusting to this system, so let’s hold off for now on
anointing him the starter on the outside.
At the Safety position, they need someone to step up and produce. The one they are high on is Sophomore, Dwayne Norman (60 tackles), who started five games as a freshman last year; while he was pretty solid play-wise, and had some toughness needed to play that position, when it came to coverage, there wasn’t much there. You have to remember, Norman's is playing the ROVER, so his main focus was trying to stop the run. They’ll go with either Senior Anthony Young-Wiseman or RS Freshman Corbin McCarthy in Byas' former role, though with both player recovering from injuries this spring, the options were limited there. The biggest role at Safety, which is Canty's former "bandit" position, is going to former Ohio State transfer Jeremy Cash. A sophomore, he has made their staff take notice with his play in the spring over the last two years. In 2013, he’s going to be asked to step up and get the big numbers on the back end.
Special teams: They have one of the best kicking games in the country.
They have back two potential All-Americans in Sophomores Ross Martin at K and
Will Monday at P. As good as their kicking game is, there’s the problem of
their kick coverage. That unit went backwards in 2012 and you add to the fact
that they must find a replacement for their leading returner on kickoffs and
punts (Vernon). However, when you have Martin and Monday doing the
kicking/punting duties, for the most part, they’ll be fine.
In closing, Duke has the chance to get even
better and Cut has them in the right direction. They have 14 starters back (7
each on O and D). This team is going to win at least 6 again in 2013. Whether
they win 8 or 9 games depends on three games early in September, all at home.
GT on Sept 14Th, Pitt on Sept 21st, and Troy on Sept 28Th,
If they win those three, and the Navy game at home after the BYE week on Oct 12Th,
this could be a 6-0 team going into a very tough two games in the state of
Virginia (Oct 12Th in Charlottesville, and Oct 19Th in
Blacksburg). When I look at the schedule realistically, I see an 8-4 season for
Duke in 2013.
In part 11 of the series, I will preview a team
that has beaten us the last three years, and that’s the Virginia Cavaliers.
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