Report Card vs FSU

My take on last night's game. We showed some fight, we battled out there. Defensively, I thought we did pretty well for the most part. However, offensively, the protection for Stephen wasn't as sharp as it usually is. Credit the FSU D for that. FSU made the plays they needed to make and they left with the win. The game went pretty much as I suspected it would. It was like the '98 game. We just couldn't make that one game changing play and they did. Tip your cap to the Noles, again, they made the plays they needed to make and that's what it came down to. I feel from a recruiting perspective, we're still in play for a lot of the recruits that are on the fence after our gallant effort last night.

 

That out of the way, time for the Report Card.

 

Offense: D:  O-Line allows 4 sacks. Running game was ineffective. We had -12 yards rushing in the 2nd half on 7 carries. 137 yards of offense in the 2nd half, against that vaunted FSU D isn't cutting the mustard. The blocking was little to non-existent there. We had 5 three and outs. The pass protection was just terrible. Stephen Morris played his ass off last night with a bum ankle. We had our chances in the passing game, we just didn't execute that one big game changing play. 4-16 on 3rd Downs isn't going to get the job done, especially when you're in long yardage as the O seemed to be most of the night, and especially when you're 1-8 in the 2nd half on 3rd downs. Very poor all around here.

Defense: C-:  This is a game where I'm not going to place total blame on the D. I thought this was Coach D's better called games. We didn't allow FSU to convert in the 2nd half on 3rd down (0-4), However, when you're out there for 18:35 of the 2nd half, trying to make plays and getting right back on the field after the O goes three and out, you're going to be tired and FSU's O-Line took control of the game. We did force two turnovers early on, however, we couldn't make the plays in key spots that we needed to make. We allowed FSU to go for 129 yards rushing in the 2nd half and 218 overall. In the 1st half, I felt the D did a pretty good job. We did sack EJ Manuel twice. We broke up 6 passes and hurried Manuel once. They played with heart, and brought the heat, but in the end, FSU's O made the plays needed to make to win. Hopefully, we can get better here, but still much to do on this side of the ball. 

Special Teams: C-: Another solid game from Dalton in the Punt game. The Special Teams D did a very good job. Jake had a solid game with two FGs. We didn't have a kick return at all last night, there, you have to tip your hat to their Kicker Hopkins. That guy is money, he's not the typical FSU kicker that we've seen in the past. We did allow the big kick return to Joyner. Overall, I felt we did very well here. Though the field position in the 2nd half was an issue. FSU started overall from their own 34, but in the 2nd half, they started drives from their own 40. We started our drives from an average of our own 32, but our own 27 in the 2nd half. In the 1st half, we started from our own 35 on average while FSU started from their own 28. We could be better here, however, overall, not too bad. 

 

In closing, we could use the BYE week to rest some key guys, especially Morris and get ready for VT on the Thursday Night after the BYE. Hopefully, we can build off the strong points of last night's game and correct some weaknesses. I get the feeling we're going to see the Noles again on December 1st in Charlotte for the ACC title.
 

 

Florida State Preview

Its finally here. Gameday vs FSU. Folks, I'm going to make no delusions here. This is an outstanding football team we're facing tonight. When you look at the numbers, you'll see why.

National Ranks in parenthesis, some, of not most of them is ugly to look at.

Total Offense vs Total Defense
CANES 437.6 ypg (42nd) vs FSU 222 ypg allowed (3rd)
FSU 530.6 ypg (12th) vs CANES 506.6 ypg allowed (117th)

Scoring Offense vs Scoring Defense
CANES 27.9 ppg (T-62nd {Rice}) vs FSU 11.6 ppg allowed (4th)
FSU 46 ppg (6th) vs CANES 32.3 ppg allowed (93rd)

Rushing Offense vs Rushing Defense
CANES 140.8 ypg (86th) vs FSU 74.9 ypg allowed (5th)
FSU 233.1 ypg (16th) vs CANES 253.7 ypg allowed (118th)

Passing Offense vs Passing Defense
CANES 296.7 ypg (24th) vs FSU 147.1 ypg allowed (6th)
FSU 297.4 ypg (23rd) vs CANES 252.9 ypg allowed (86th)

Pass Efficiency vs Pass Efficiency Defense 
CANES 127.4 (81st) vs FSU 90.9 (3rd)
FSU 173.4 (5th) vs CANES 138.1 (82nd)

TFLs Allowed vs TFLs
CANES 4.6 (T-24th {Michigan St.}) vs FSU 6.3 (T-45th {Fresno St., Ohio})
FSU 5 (T-41st {Northern Illinois, Toledo, TCU, BC, South Carolina}) vs CANES 4.9 (T-97th {Ohio St.})

Sacks Allowed vs Sacks
CANES 1.14 pg (T-22nd {Northern Illinois}) vs FSU 2.4 pg (T-34th {Arkansas, Missouri, Wisconsin})
FSU 1.57 pg (T-48th {Utah St., Vegas, Wisconsin, NW}) vs CANES 1 pg (T-107th {Arizona, Kansas, Troy})

3rd Down O vs 3rd Down D
CANES 44.4% (45th) vs FSU 23% (Leads Nation)
FSU 44.3% (46th) vs CANES 44.2% (89th)

Time of Possession
CANES 25:40 pg (117th)
FSU 29:37 pg (66th)

Turnover Margin
CANES +2 (.29 pg) (T-44th {Cal, Michigan St., South Carolina, UCLA})
FSU +1 (.14 pg) (T-55th {Northern Illinois, Rice, VT, Ole Miss})

Net Punting
CANES 34.35 avg (101st)
FSU 34.7 avg (96th)

Punt Returns vs Punt Return D
CANES 7 ypg (T-77th {Fresno St., Arizona St.}) vs FSU 6.67 ypg allowed (51st)
FSU 14.8 ypg (14th) vs CANES 18 ypg allowed (116th)

Kick Returns vs Kick Return D
CANES 24.4 (29th) vs FSU 15.9 allowed (6th)
FSU 29.6 (3rd) vs CANES 14.3 allowed (2nd)

For us to win tonight, it's going to take a near perfect game to do it. In that, I mean, no turnovers, finish drives with 7s instead of 3s. Taking advantage of short fields and making FSU have to go 80+ yards per drive. We have to stay out of 3rd and long situations, especially against a defense that leads the nation in 3rd down Defense. We have to get the crowd in the game early and often and the way you do that is with big plays. It wouldn't shock me if we try to hit a big play early if its there.

This will not be the blowout many CANE fans suspect. This is a big game from a recruiting perspective. There will a lot of recruits at this game tonight. If this is a replay of the 2010 game in which we got blown out 45-17 by the Noles, recruiting in South Florida would be set back 2-3 years if not more, that's how devastating it would be if a replay of 2010 happens tonight. Matthew Thomas from Booker T would be gone to FSU for sure. Denver Kirkland would be gone to FSU as well.

In fact, here is a list of players that will be at the game tonight:
CANES Commits in Bold
2013:
ATH Ray Lewis, 5-10, 190, Lake Mary Prep (Fla.),–Commit/Official Visit
LB Jermaine Grace, 6-1, 205, Miramar (Fla.)
OL Denver Kirkland, 6-5, 335, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.
LB, Matthew Thomas, 6-3, 205, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.
TE Jeremy Kerr, 6-6, 255, St. Petersburg (Fla.)–Commit

2014:
WR Ermon Lane, 6-2, 172, Homestead (Fla.)
LB Richard Yeargin III, 6-3, 210, Hollywood (Fla) Chaminade-Madonna
RB Sony Michel, 5-11, 195, Plantation (Fla.) American Heritage
K Christian Pereira, 6-2, 185, Orlando (Fla.) Timber Creek
DE Chad Thomas, 6-4. 225, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.
ATH Travis Rudolph, 6-0, 175, West Palm Beach (Fla.) Cardinal Newman–Commit
CB Nigel Patten, 5-9, 165, Miami (Fla.) Booker T.

2015:
ATH Jordan Cronkrite, 5-11, 185, Miami (Fla.) Westminster
ATH Tim Irvin, 5-9, 182, Miami (Fla.) Westminster
RB Jacques Patrick, 6-2, 215, Orlando (Fla.) Timber Creek

That's why the importance of keeping it close tonight is vital. Look at the talent here, we can ill afford to get blown out tonight at home to FSU for the 2nd time in 3 years because most of that talent would bolt to FSU or UF. 

Realistically though, I see this game being like 1998 in the Orange Bowl (RIP). FSU gets a nice sized lead, only to have us come back and make a game of it. However, I think FSU will make more key plays than we do and they come out with the victory.

My prediction: FSU 31 CANES 20.

Report Card vs North Carolina

Highlights: Miami vs. North Carolina

Looking at yesterday's game, once again, the D gives up almost 500 yards to Carolina (177 to Gio Bernard alone on 27 carries, with 1 TD). The 3rd down conversion rates were the same for both teams (6-15). The reason we lost this one yesterday was because we lost the turnover battle (-1). You rarely win games when you lose the turnover battle. We wasted a near 100 yard rushing game out of MJ. We did win the field position battle (Average drive starts: Carolina from their own 21, us from our own 22).

This was one of those games where you have a chance to win, but don't make the plays needed late to win.

That said, time for the Report Card.

Offense: C:  Offense did so-so. First possession, the penalty on Malcolm on 4th and 1, was a momentum killer because it pushed us back 5 yards and we ultimately had to punt. Two picks in the 1st half, the first one near the red zone on our next possession, was another killer right there because that's points we left on the field (7, and that ultimately would come back to bite us late). We turned the ball over on downs on the next possession on 4th and 3 when Hurns couldn't make a play. Later the 2nd Morris pick was at the 7 of Carolina. We allow a sack on the final drive that was a back-breaker for us. There were some bright spots, but we have to get rid of the dropsie disease because once again yesterday, it reared its ugly head in key moments.

Defense: D-: Once again, the D allows almost 500 yards of total offense to Carolina (486 to be exact), and we had little to no answer for Bernard, who went for 177 on 27 carries and 1 TD. We gave Renner almost all day to throw. Though EJ did get the pick early in the game (and had 4 tackles, 2 TFLs) we made Renner look too comfortable in the pocket. We did break up 5 passes yesterday. Denzel had an 11 tackle game (3 TFLs). Carolina was 6-15 (40%) on 3rd down and of those, 3 of those conversions were from 5 yards or less, but what was really disheartening there was the fact that twice, we allowed them to convert on plays more than 6 yards and in big spots too. We killed ourselves here with bad penalties. The PF on Brandon after the run by Romar of Carolina on their 2nd possession. We have another penalty where we have 12 on the field. However, the missed by Barth bailed them out there. On their 2nd possession of the 3rd quarter, the D makes a stop, only to have a PI call on Brandon keep their drive alive, but once again, the D rose up to make a key play and get off the field. Overall here, still needs work to get better. There was some, but not by much from last week.

Special Teams: C: I could tell that this staff had little to no confidence in Jake making kicks in pressure spots, hence, that's why we went for it a lot on 4th downs. Another solid game out of Dalton Botts. 2 of his 3 punts were downed, one of which inside the 1. We did win the field position battle (Carolina started from their own 21, CANES from their own 22). There's still some work to do here. Jake needs to get his confidence back before Saturday Night vs FSU.

In closing, overall, this is one of those games where you have a chance to win late, but we don't make the plays needed to be made in key situations. Tip your cap to Carolina, they made the plays they needed to make and we didn't. That's all there is to it. We know the challenge ahead of us on Saturday Night vs FSU in Primetime on ABC. Gotta get back up and play an outstanding Seminole team.

North Carolina Preview

National Ranks in parenthesis

Total Offense vs Total Defense
CANES 441.3 ypg (40th) vs UNC 312.3 ypg allowed (20th)
UNC 486.7 ypg (23rd) vs CANES 510 ypg allowed (118th)

Scoring Offense vs Scoring Defense
CANES 30.2 ppg (T-54th {WMU}) vs UNC 17.8 ppg allowed (26th)
UNC 44 ppg (9th) vs CANES 34.7 ppg allowed (101st)

Rushing Offense vs Rushing Defense
CANES 134.2 ypg (89th) vs UNC 86.3 ypg allowed (11th)
UNC 200.3 ypg (32nd) vs CANES 250.7 ypg allowed (116th)

Passing Offense vs Passing Defense
CANES 307.2 ypg (15th) vs UNC 226 ypg allowed (62nd)
UNC 286.3 ypg (31st) vs CANES 259.3 ypg allowed (91st)

Pass Efficiency vs Pass Efficiency Defense 
CANES 132.7 (64th) vs UNC 113.16 (30th)
UNC 153.4 (22nd) vs CANES 146.79 (102nd)

TFLs Allowed vs TFLs
CANES 4.17 (T-18th {Ohio}) vs UNC 8.3 (T-6th {BYU, LSU})
UNC 6.17 (T-79th {VT, UK, UConn}) vs CANES 5.2 (T-82nd {Minnesota})

Sacks Allowed vs Sacks
CANES 1.17 pg (T-26th {USF, Arkansas St.}) vs UNC 2.5 pg (T-32nd {Arkansas, Missouri, Duke, Toledo, Cal, Temple, Oregon St.})
UNC .67 pg (T-11th {Ohio, Duke, Tulsa}) vs CANES 1.17 pg (T-102nd {Clemson})

3rd Down O vs 3rd Down D
CANES 45.1% (41st) vs UNC 34.78% (35th)
UNC 45.98% (36th) vs CANES 45% (T-94th {Idaho})

Time of Possession
CANES 24:54 pg (116th)
UNC 27:06 pg (107th)

Turnover Margin
CANES +3 (.6 pg) (T-33rd {LSU, Oregon, South Carolina})
UNC +5 (.83 pg) (T-23rd {New Mexico, Ohio St.})

Net Punting
CANES 35.43 avg (88th)
UNC 39.1 avg (31st)

Punt Returns vs Punt Return D
CANES 7 ypg (74th) vs UNC 3.3 ypg allowed (21st)
UNC 13.9 ypg (23rd) vs CANES 16.7 ypg allowed (115th)

Kick Returns vs Kick Return D
CANES 24.7 (29th) vs UNC 20.8 allowed (57th)
UNC 26.3 (18th) vs CANES 14.4 allowed (4th)

A couple of stats jump out at me here. First, their D vs the Run. It is very good. They are as you can see 11th in the nation in that category. Another that jumps out is the TFLs. They are tied for 6th with BYU and LSU in this category. They swarm to the ball carriers very quickly. Their Punt Return D is very good. They only allow 3.3 ypg here. The opportunities when we have them, we need to take advantage to give the O good field position.  Our Run D will be tested tomorrow with trying to stop UNC RB Gio Bernard. He lit VT's vaunted D for over 200 yards last week.

In the end, I believe we'll make just enough plays to win. Gametime tomorrow is at 2:30 on ESPNU.

My prediction: CANES 38 Carolina 31

Report Card for game vs Notre Dame (Chicago)

Well, last night's game, on the first possession, we had two golden opportunities to really set the tone in this game, but didn't take advantage at that point and you could tell from there that the air just went out of us from that point on. Another chance we had late in the half to cut the ND lead to 7 was missed when Jake missed a FG that didn't have a chance from the start. In the 2nd half, when we needed a stop on the 1st possession by ND, it didn't happen, they scored and from that point, they dominated in the 2nd half and we had no answer for them at all. Tip your cap to the Irish, they just kicked our butts in the 2nd half.

Here's the ugly report card for last night's game

Offense: D- : Only 285 yards of total offense and of that, just 84 yards rushing. (Duke 22 yards on 8 carries, MJ 28 yards on 6 carries). The dropsie disease was very much in evidence last night, especially on the first possession, two drops by Phillip that would have been 6 for us. Yes, Morris was 18-35 for 201, but after he was harassed and hurried in this game, really from the 2nd quarter on. Morris was hurried 5 times last night and the O-Line did not adjust to that at all. The O-Line didn't allow a sack which was good, but the ND front 7 really took it to our O-Line in this game. Also, didn't help when Stephen's TD was called back by Jonny's holding penalty on the next possession after the two drops by Phillip on the first one. Jonny killed us with two penalties on that drive. Poor performance last night all around here. You will not win games against Top 10 opponents when you have just 84 yards rushing.

Defense: F : Here are the ugly numbers allowed. Total offense by ND: 587. Of that 587 yards allowed, 376 of those yards were on the ground. We allow two of their rushers to go over 115 yards rushing (Atkinson III 123 on 10 carries 1 TD, and Wood 118 on 18 carries 2 TDs). We even allowed McDaniel to score a late TD. We did try to blitz last night but to little or no avail. Just 1 QB Hurry all night (Bush). The penalties here were just as bad. The personal foul on EJ on the 1st drive kept a ND drive where they ultimately scored. Later, an offside penalty on Corey on ND's first drive of the 2nd half, kept a scoring drive for them alive and they ultimately got 7 there and for all intents, ball game over at 20-3. Complete disaster all around by the D. They allowed ND to get on all their possessions in the 2nd half 4 TDs. On ND's 2nd possession of the 2nd half, they went to the running game and we could not stop it at all and they knew it was coming. Their O-Line just dominated our front 7 last night. We allowed 34 first downs to ND last night. Completely inexcusable.

Special Teams: D- : Gabriel's BS roughing the kicker call on 1st punt by ND, kept their drive alive and they ultimately got 7 from it. Later at 13-3 ND, Tyrone gets called for an illegal block in the back that pushes us back from a field position standpoint. ND started their drives from an average of their own 18 while we started our drives from an average of our own 28. Usually when you win the field position battle, you usually get the win. Last night was certainly not the case at all. Jake misses a key FG that would have cut the ND lead at Half to 7. Botts did have a TB in this game, but three of his punts were inside the 20. Overall, very poor performance by the Special Teams.

In closing, we have to bounce back from this and forget this game. This game is over and the next focus needs to be on Carolina, which had an impressive win over VT yesterday. We're home for the next three games, and it'll be good to get back to Sun Life and hopefully back on the winning track.

Notre Dame Preview

After 22 years, the Miami Hurricanes will be playing Notre Dame in the regular season tonight at Soldier Field in Chicago. Gametime is 7:30 on NBC.

Notre Dame's Defense is very good. They are 3rd in the country in Scoring Defense, 9th in Pass Efficiency Defense, 15th in Total Defense, 19th vs the Pass, and 29th vs the Run. There are few matchups to watch in this game tonight.

Duke and Mike James vs the Notre Dame front 7, especially LB Manti Te'o. I'm going to look for at least 4-5 yards on 1st downs. Their Defense in those situations is 20th in the country, allowing 16.75 per game. ND's 3rd Down Defense is horrible. They are 72nd in the country in that department, allowing opponents to convert almost 40% of the time (39.66% to be exact), compared to ours, which is 94th with opponents converting almost 45% of the time (44.93% to be exact).

Ball protection is going to be vital in this ball game tonight because ND is 3rd in the country in turnover margin (2.25 per game or a +9). Under no circumstances can we turn the ball over because that's going to be asking for trouble. Also, protecting Stephen Morris is going to be critical because the ND Defense is 9th in the nation in Sacks averaging 3.5 per game. A matchup that I'm going to be watching in this game is LT Malcolm Bunche vs RDE of Notre Dame Stephon Tuitt. Tuitt is T-2nd in the nation in sacks per game with 1.5. Bunche needs to neutralize Tuitt and protect Morris' blind side. The matchup I want to also watch here is WR Rashawn Scott vs ND CB Bennett Jackson. I wouldn't be surprised if he's switches to go up against Dorsett. A matchup I like is Dorsett vs their other CB Russell who's very suspect. I think that's a matchup we can exploit all night.

The key to this game will be the Notre Dame Offense vs the CANE Defense. Can the CANE D step up and have a solid game for 4 quarters. We have to stop Riddick and Atkinson III. Also, another matchup to watch in this game tonight is the ND TE Eifert vs the CANE LBs (Corneilus/Paul, EJ, and Denzel). We have to not make Eifert a factor in this game because if he is, it's going to be a long night because that will open up the running game even more.

In the end, it'll be close, it'll come down to a couple of plays and who makes them.  I think in the end, we'll make just enough plays to win this game and leave Chi-town with a big time signature W on the road.

My prediction: CANES 31 Notre Dame 27

Report Card and Game Balls vs NC State

What can you say about yesterday? In the 1st quarter, we were clicking on all cylinders, however, late in the quarter, when we had a chance to put the Wolfpack away, we didn't do that, and for the rest of the game, we made more interesting than necessary. At the end of the day, though, we got the win, which is the most important. We're 4-1 (3-0 in the ACC), and getting ready for a trip to Chicago on Saturday Night vs Notre Dame on NBC. 

The Report Card for yesterday's game:

Offense: B-: The down side is that we only had 85 yards rushing yesterday on 32 carries as a team. Against a great team, numbers like that won't win many games. The up side, we had 651 yards of Total Offense (566 of those were in the air from Stephen Morris, who set a ACC record to boot in this game). Only one penalty on the O (False Start on Jeremy). We didn't finish drives strong in the middle of the game. We had 3 three and outs, and some 4 and outs. We did get the GW from Stephen on the 3rd and 11 play to Phillip. Need more consistency here and finish drives strong. We didn't take advantage of the short fields the D gave us, and to be a great team, we need to take advantage of those situations. 

Defense: C-: I liked the fact that we forced 6 turnovers (4 fumbles and 2 picks). What I didn't like was the fact that we allowed 664 yards of total offense (224 of those rushing, including 120 from Creecy alone on 19 carries). They need to stiffen up more in that area. I liked that we did sack Glennon twice, but didn't like the fact that we allowed him to go for 440 yards passing and 4 TDs. This area needs to get better and be consistent for 4 quarters. They did step up when it was needed though. 

Special Teams: C-: Three missed FGs by Jake, left 9 points on the field there, that could have cost us big time, against a great team, that'll come back to bite us. However, Dalton Botts had another solid game in the Punting area for us. Two huge punts inside the 5. They started their drives from an average of their own 20, while we started ours from an average of our own 32. On kickoffs, we were beginning drives from our own 25. The kicking game almost cost us a win yesterday. This area, especially with Jake, needs to shake this tough performance off because we're going to need him in big spots later in the year. 

Now to Game Balls. This week, I'm giving out 5 game balls:

1. Stephen Morris: 26-49, 566 yards (ACC record), 5 TDs, 1 INT. Simply phenomenal on that GW TD play. 
2. Phillip Dorsett: 7 receptions, 191 yards 2 TDs (including GW) 226 all-purpose yards.
3. Rashawn Scott: 6 receptions, 180 yards 2 TDs
4. Eddie Johnson: 7 tackles (1 TFL), 1 sack, 2 Forced Fumbles, 1 pass broken up
5. Dalton Botts: 2 big punts pinning NC State inside the 5, 0 TBs, 4 punts inside the 20

In closing, there were many mistakes made yesterday and points were left on the field. If we're going to take that next step, we have to take advantage of short fields we're given and we have to finish drives strong with TDs, not FGs. The question is which CANES team comes to Chicago on Saturday Night? The one that was dominant in the 1st quarter? or the one that was going through the motions for most of the game? If the latter shows up, it will be ugly in Chicago. If the former shows up, we win handily.